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Upcoming Book on Outer Space Resources Law: "Law and Regulation of Commercial Mining of Minerals in Outer Space"

2011-09-17T01:08:00.002-04:00

A new book from Dr. Ricky Lee entitled "Law and Regulation of Commercial Mining of Minerals in Outer Space (Space Regulations Library)" from Springer Press (Due: February 10, 2012). From Springer Press...

This monograph addresses the legal and policy issues relating to the commercial exploitation of natural resources in outer space. It begins by establishing the economic necessity and technical feasibility of space mining today, an estimate of the financial commitments required, followed by a risk analysis of a commercial mining venture in space, identifying the economic and legal risks. This leads to the recognition that the legal risks must be minimised to enable such projects to be financed. This is followed by a discussion of the principles of international space law, particularly dealing with state responsibility and international liability, as well as some of the issues arising from space mining activities. Much detail is devoted to the analysis of the content of the common heritage of mankind doctrine. The monograph then attempts to balance such interests in creating a legal and policy compromise to create a new regulatory regime.

Content Level » ResearchKeywords » Asteroids - Celestial Bodies - Comets - Commercial Exploration - Common Heritage of Mankind - Economic Prospects of Mining - Exploitation Rights - Extraction of Mineral Resources - International Space Law - Lander Mission - Lex Specialis Priniciple - Mineral Resources - Moon Agreement - Outer Space Treaty - Planets - Space Law - Space Mining - Technological Prospects of Mining - The Wellington ConventionRelated subjects » Extraterrestrial Physics, Space Sciences - Law - Mineralogy & Sedimentology

TABLE OF CONTENTSList of Figures.- List of Tables.- Glossary.- Table of Abbreviations.- Table of Reports, Series and Journal Titles.- Acknowledgements.- Chapter I Introduction and Overview.- Chapter II Economic and Technical Prospects of Mining on Celestial Bodies.- Chapter III State Responsibility and Liability for Compliance with International Space Law.- Chapter IV Rights and Duties in the Commercial Exploration and Extraction of Mineral Resources on Celestial Bodies.- Chapter V Exploitation Rights: Evolving from the “Province of Mankind” to the “Common Heritage of Mankind”.- Chapter VI Meeting the Challenges and Balancing the Competing Interests in Creating a Legal and Regulatory Framework.- Chapter VII Concluding Observations.- References.- Index.

Link: Springer Books

Link: Amazon.com

B612 Foundation Website Update

2011-09-10T20:05:00.000-04:00

The B612 Foundation has updated its website.

About them...

The B612 is a non-profit organization founded by a group of astronauts and scientists whose goal is to predict and prevent catastrophic asteroid impacts on Earth. B612 aims to find potentially threatening asteroids, track their trajectories, and to demonstrate the technology to alter the orbit of an asteroid in a controlled manner.

SGAC Announces the Winner of the 2011 Move an Asteroid Competition ("Smart Cloud" for Asteroid Mitigation)

2011-09-09T15:02:00.002-04:00

The Space Generation Advisory Council (SGAC) announced the winner of its 2011 Move An Asteroid International Technical Paper Competition. Here is the announcement from SGAC. The winner, Alison Gibbings, is currently is currently a PhD student at the University of Strathclyde within the Advanced Concept Laborator in Glasgow, Scotland. She will be on National Public Radio (NPR) radio show Science Friday. Here is the NPR show information.

Her proposal outlined in the paper is for a "Smart Cloud" utilizing, multiple small particles for momentum transfer for asteroid deflection.

2011 Move an Asteroid Winning Paper Abstract:

This paper presents a novel idea for the successful deflection of asteroids. Adapted initially from the kinematic impactor approach, this new concept – Smart Cloud – combines the relative benefits of ion beaming in providing a large cloud of small particles for the effective deflection and mitigation of asteroids. The cloud consists of a large number of incredibly low mass nano-size spacecraft that are released at a high relative velocity. Upon impact with the asteroid the smart cloud is shown to be highly effective in creating a large artificial drag, and therefore an associated thrust, onto the asteroid. The technique is also advantageous in avoiding the catastrophic fragmentation of the asteroid which might otherwise occur with the impact of a monolithic spacecraft and/or projectile. The impact energy of each colliding particle is significantly lower than the impact energy for disruption. . For analysis the smart cloud approach has been compared to other methods of potential deflection. This includes the low-thrust tug and the ion beaming technique. The paper will show that when the total deflection mass of the smart cloud is equivalent to the ion beaming approach, is has the advantage of significantly reducing the system mass and complexity of the spacecraft design. It is also superior in the deflection and mitigation of deep crossing asteroids.

Link: SGAC News Annoucement

Target NEO Workshop Final Report

2011-08-31T19:25:00.003-04:00

A recent space.com article on the final report from the Target: NEO workshop.

Selections from the article...

Developing the capability to launch human missions to asteroids would aid humanity's ability to foil a potentially devastating asteroid strike and help spur our march to Mars, a new report finds.

What's most needed to make manned asteroid missions possible, the report further concludes, is a comprehensive survey of the Near Earth Object (NEO) population, which would greatly aid planning efforts.

The new report, entitled "Target NEO: Open Global Community NEO Workshop," is anchored in views expressed by experts who gathered at George Washington University (GWU) in Washington in February. But this latest appraisal includes extensive peer review and refined findings from a number of follow-up meetings, both in the United States and abroad.

The key question posed by the GWU workshop: What information about NEOs is still needed to support a robust, sustainable human exploration program?

While this question prompted a variety of recommendations, a primary conclusion by the participants is the need for a space-based survey telescope to greatly expand the catalog of accessible asteroid targets for human exploration.

The space rock menace

There is a growing list of stakeholders supportive of NEO exploration, said Paul Abell, lead scientist for planetary small bodies at the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science Directorate of NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston.

"This report is timely," Abell told SPACE.com.

Small bodies have become a magnet for multiple interest groups in the U.S. and abroad, Abell said, be they space scientists, astrobiologists, planetary defense planners or NEO specialists who eye the rocky worlds as resource nodes.

For example, NASA recently selected an asteroid sample return mission called Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification-Security-Regolith Explorer, or OSIRIS-Rex. OSIRIS-Rex will be the first U.S. mission to carry samples from an asteroid back to Earth.

Japanese space officials are moving forward on their Hayabusa 2 asteroid explorer. Russia is readying its Phobos-Grunt spacecraft to explore a moon of Mars, and Canada is pressing forward on its dual-purpose microsatellite, NEOSSAT.

Then there’s the new, surprising data flooding in from NASA’s Dawn probe that’s taking a long look at Vesta, the second-largest object in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

"It shows you that, every time we go places, we’re always surprised and there’s so much to learn," Abell said. "That’s the fun part of science and exploration."

The "Target NEO" report points out that programs and planned missions to asteroids may be leveraged for mutual benefit in terms of data exchange. It also recommends coordination with the European Space Agency and other space agencies on a planetary defense demonstration mission.

Stepping stones to Mars

As for dispatching astronauts to asteroids, the report envisions that a target NEO will need to be discovered several years in advance to provide enough lead time to deliver robotic precursor missions, plan the human mission and deliver the crew to the chosen destination.

Abell also said that piloted flight to a NEO would hone techniques that could enable an exploration mission to the Red Planet.

"They provide good stepping stones out to Mars," Abell said.

Operating at an asteroid or Mars would be completely different than working at the moon, on the space shuttle or aboard the International Space Station.

Both asteroids and Mars, for example, would have much greater lags in communication times. So deep space missions would require the sharpening of true autonomy acumen, as well as a great deal of confidence in redundant hardware, deep space propulsion, life support gear and radiation shielding.

Link: Space.com article

Link: Target: NEO workshop final report (PDF)

PR on Recent Workshop on Planetary Defense Policy Workshop with SWF/NASA/UN/ASE

2011-08-30T13:36:00.003-04:00

From the press release from Secure World Foundation...

A workshop has brought together leading representatives from space agencies and international experts to discuss key issues related to global response and cooperation in the event of a Near Earth Object (NEO) impact threat to Earth.

The gathering of specialists took place August 25-26 in Pasadena, California. The meeting was co-organized and co-sponsored by Action Team-14, part of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN COPUOS) Scientific and Technical Subcommittee, Secure World Foundation (SWF), and the Association of Space Explorers (ASE) that represents over 350 individuals from 35 nations who have flown in space.

The supporting agency host of the meeting was the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Near Earth Object Observations Program Office.

This recent workshop is a follow-up to previous meetings that took place last year in Mexico City to discuss a NEO Information, Analysis, and Warning Network (IAWN) and in Darmstadt, Germany to confer about a NEO Mission Planning and Operations Group, or MPOG, to plan, organize, and conduct any necessary missions to threatening asteroids.

Decisive step: set of recommendations

“As we now have the technological capacity, we should be able to prevent the threat of an asteroid impact on Earth or mitigate its consequences,” said Dr. Sergio Camacho, Secretary General of the Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Latin America and the Caribbean (CRECTEALC) in Mexico City. Camacho is a former Director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, a post that he held from 2002 to 2007.

“I am very pleased with the progress made at this workshop towards establishing a space agency Mission Planning and Operations Group (MPOG) to plan, prepare and respond, if need be, to an asteroid threat,” Camacho said.

Preparing a draft Terms of Reference for such a group, with the participation of four space agencies, is a decisive step in this direction, Comacho added.

These results, together with those garnered from previous policy workshops -- also co-sponsored by Secure World Foundation -- on establishing an IAWN, an MPOG, and results to date from the multi-year work plan of the Action Team-14 on Near Earth Objects of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, will result in February 2013 with a set of recommendations on which the Committee can act.

“I am also very pleased by the progress that we made in preparing these recommendations,” Comacho said. “By joining and coordinating efforts, the international community will be much better prepared to prevent the devastating consequences of an asteroid impact on Earth.”

Substantial progress

“This workshop made substantial progress toward an international interagency plan to mitigate the damaging effects of an asteroid strike against Earth. It also made headway in an effort to develop an overall international governance model for the response to a threatening Near Earth Object,” said Dr. Ray A. Williamson, Executive Director of Secure World Foundation.

The Association of Space Explorers has been promoting international efforts to plan for averting a future asteroid impact for more than five years, and last week’s Mission Planning and Operations Group meeting shows the world’s space agencies are moving closer to cooperative action, said Tom Jones, former NASA shuttle astronaut and current Chair of the ASE Committee on Near-Earth Objects.
Jones said that the “rules of the road” for the group should lead to joint technology development to deflect a rogue asteroid.

“What’s needed now is top-level agency endorsement of international planning and research, leading to a space demonstration of how we would change the course of an asteroid,” Jones said. “That’s the goal, so we can be ready for a hazardous asteroid down the road.”

Link: Press Release

New Papers on low delta-V asteroids, asteroid mission measurement requirements, Human mission NEO targets, and detection of radiation pressure

2011-08-30T12:04:00.000-04:00

Several new papers.

PAPER REFERENCE:

Physical characterisation of low delta-V asteroid (175706) 1996 FG3

Authors: Stephen D. Wolters, Ben Rozitis, Samuel R. Duddy, Stephen C. Lowry, Simon F. Green, Colin Snodgrass, Olivier R. Hainaut, Paul Weissman(Submitted on 08 Aug 2011)

Abstract: Asteroid (175706) 1996 FG3 is a binary asteroid and the baseline target for the proposed MarcoPolo-R sample-return mission. We present thermal IR photometry obtained with the ESO VLT+VISIR together with optical photometry obtained with the ESO NTT+EFOSC2 . An absolute visual magnitude H_V = 17.833 \pm 0.024 and phase parameter G = -0.041 \pm 0.005 is derived. The Near-Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (NEATM) has been fitted to the measured fluxes to derive a geometric visual albedo p_v = 0.046 \pm 0.014, effective diameter at the observed aspect D_eff = 1.68 \pm 0.25 km, and beaming parameter {\eta} = 1.15 for phase angle {\alpha} = 11.7{\deg}. The Advanced Thermophysical Model (ATPM) has been fitted to the measured fluxes to derive a more accurate effective diameter D_eff = 1.71 \pm 0.07 km and albedo p_v = 0.044 \pm 0.004. Based on the ATPM results, assuming the same albedo for primary and secondary, we derive a primary mean spherical diameter D_p = (1.69 +0.18/-0.12) km, secondary diameter D_s = 0.51 \pm 0.03 km, and a secondary orbital semi-major axis a = (2.8 +1.7/-0.7) km. A low surface thermal inertia {\Gamma} = 120 \pm 50 J m^-2 s^-1/2 K^-1 was also derived, suggesting a dusty surface and raising questions as to the binary formation mechanism of this asteroid. These physical properties are used to predict a Yarkovsky drift in semi-major axis of (-60 +31/-45) m yr-1.

Cite as: 1108.1831v1 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: Paper (PDF format)

PAPER REFERENCE:

Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

Authors: Stephen D. Wolters, Andrew J. Ball, Nigel Wells, Christopher Saunders, Neil McBride(Submitted on 21 Jul 2011)

Abstract: A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.

Cite as: 1107.4229v1 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: Paper (PDF format)

PAPER REFERENCE:

Ultra-Low Delta-v Objects and the Human Exploration of Asteroids

Authors: Martin Elvis, Jonathan McDowell, Jeffrey A. Hoffman, Richard P. Binzel(Submitted on 20 May 2011 (v1), last revised 15 Jun 2011 (this version, v2))

Abstract: Missions to near-Earth objects (NEOs) are key destinations in NASA's new "Flexible Path" approach. NEOs are also of interest for science, for the hazards they pose, and for their resources. We emphasize the importance of ultra-low delta-v from LEO to NEO rendezvous as a target selection criterion, as this choice can greatly increase the payload to the NEO. Few such ultra-low delta-v NEOs are currently known; only 65 of the 6699 known NEOs (March2010) have delta-v <4.5 km/s, 2/3 of typical LEO-NEO delta-v. Even these are small and hard to recover. Other criteria - short transit times, long launch windows, a robust abort capability, and a safe environment for proximity operations - will further limit the list of accessible objects. Potentially there are at least an order of magnitude more ultra-low delta v NEOs but, to find them all on a short enough timescale (before 2025) requires a dedicated survey in the optical or mid-IR, optimally from a Venus-like orbit because of the short synodic period for NEOs in that orbit, plus long arc determination of their orbits.

Cite as: 1105.4152v2 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: Paper (PDF format)

PAPER REFERENCE:

Detection of radiation pressure acting on 2009 BD

Authors: Marco Micheli, David J. Tholen, Garrett T. Elliott(Submitted on 03 Jun 2011)

Abstract: We report the direct detection of radiation pressure on the asteroid 2009 BD, one of the smallest multi-opposition near-Earth objects currently known, with H ~ 28.4. Under the purely gravitational model of NEODyS the object is currently considered a possible future impactor, with impact solutions starting in 2071. The detection of a radiation-related acceleration allows us to estimate an Area to Mass Ratio (AMR) for the object, that can be converted (under some assumptions) into a range of possible values for its average density. Our result AMR = (2.97 \pm 0.33) x 10^(-4) m^2 kg^(-1) is compatible with the object being of natural origin, and it is narrow enough to exclude a man-made nature. The possible origin of this object, its future observability, and the importance of radiation pressure in the impact monitoring process, are also discussed.

Cite as: 1106.0564v1 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: Paper (PDF format)

Paper: Capturing Near Earth Objects

2011-08-29T00:31:00.000-04:00

From the MIT Technology Review article of a new paper from Baoyin, et al called "Capturing Near Earth Objects"...

Most of the discussion about near Earth asteroids focuses on whether they represent a threat to Earth and what to do take if they turn out to be heading our way.But today, Hexi Baoyin and pals at Tsinghua University in Beijing offer a different take. The question they ask is how to place an asteroid in orbit around the Earth.Their conclusion is a little surprising. They say it's relatively straightforward to nudge a small asteroid in our direction. They've even discovered a number of candidates nearby that we might want to bring as little closer.Their inspiration is a phenomenon that astronomers have noticed with Jupiter. Every now and again, the gas giant captures a nearby object, which hangs around for a few years and then wanders off into space.A good example is the comet Oterma which went into orbit about Jupiter in1936 before heading off into the Solar System two years later.Could a similar thing happen to Earth, ask Baoyin and co. Having studied the orbits of the 6000 known near Earth objects (NEO), they say the short answer is no. None of them will come close enough for Earth to capture.However, a few of these objects will come maddeningly close. So near, in fact, that a small nudge would send them into Earth orbit. "When such an NEO approaches Earth, it is possible to change its orbit energy...to make the NEO become a small satellite of the Earth," they say.A particularly good candidate is a 10-meter object called 2008EA9 which will pass within a million kilometres or so of Earth in 2049. 2008EA9 has a very similar orbital velocity as Earth's. Baoyin and co calculate that it could be fired into Earth orbit by changing its velocity by 410 metres per second. That's tiny.This nudge should place the asteroid in an orbit at about twice the distance of the Moon. From there it can be studied and mined, they say.Just like Oterma's, this orbit is likely to be temporary so 2008EA9 will probably wander off into the heavens after a few years.

PAPER REFERENCE:

Capturing Near Earth Objects

Authors: Hexi Baoyin, Yang Chen, Junfeng Li(Submitted on 24 Aug 2011)

Abstract: Recently, Near Earth Objects (NEOs) have been attracting great attention, and thousands of NEOs have been found to date. This paper examines the NEOs' orbital dynamics using the framework of an accurate solar system model and a Sun-Earth-NEO three-body system when the NEOs are close to Earth to search for NEOs with low-energy orbits. It is possible for such an NEO to be temporarily captured by Earth; its orbit would thereby be changed and it would become an Earth-orbiting object after a small increase in its velocity. From the point of view of the Sun-Earth-NEO restricted three-body system, it is possible for an NEO whose Jacobian constant is slightly lower than C1 and higher than C3 to be temporarily captured by Earth. When such an NEO approaches Earth, it is possible to change its orbit energy to close up the zero velocity surface of the three-body system at point L1 and make the NEO become a small satellite of the Earth. Some such NEOs were found; the best example only required a 410m/s increase in velocity.

Cite as: 1108.4767v1 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: MIT Technology Review Article

Link: Paper (PDF format)

Job Posting in Planetary Defense: Minor Planet Center (MPC) looking for IT Specialist

2011-08-28T23:56:00.000-04:00

An IT specialist job announcement from the Minor Planet Center (MPC).

From Wikipedia: "Under the auspices of the International Astronomical Union, the MPC is the official organization in charge of collecting observational data for minor planets (asteroids) and comets, calculating their orbits and publishing this information via the Minor Planet Circulars." The MPC is part of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

Here is the MPC link as well as the USAJOBS link. Here is the listing:

SMITHSONIAN ASTROPHYSICAL OBSERVATORY

HR: Employment Opportunities
Job posting 11-59
Opening date: August 26, 2011
Closing date: September 16, 2011

TITLE: IT Specialist, IS-2210 (SYSADMIN/APPSW), Grade 13, $89,449 to $116,282/yr

TYPE OF POSITION: Trust Fund (non-federal) Indefinite

DIVISION: - Minor Planet Center, Solar, Stellar and Planetary Sciences Division

LOCATION: Cambridge, Massachusetts

AREA OF CONSIDERATION: All qualified candidatesFirst consideration may be made 14 days after the opening date.

DUTIES: Duties may include but are not limited to: implementing all aspects of the software development lifecycle, including requirements generation, design, code, verification and test, and maintenance; interfacing with science staff at the highest project levels to obtain information regarding their needs as the user of the system; designing software following the Minor Planet Center (MPC) software design standards, applicable vendor's literature, and established practices; overseeing the translation of design into code within the MPC programming team and coordinating software development activities between subsystem teams to ensure design consistency; designing software subsystems and components, coding and debugging complex programs to support mission planning, scientific data analysis and reduction, and data archiving and retrieval on workstation computer and image display systems; verifying and testing all generated software and maintaining code as part of an overall system and overseeing these activities within the team.

QUALIFICATIONS :For all positions individuals must have IT-related experience demonstrating each of the four competencies listed below.

1. Attention to Detail - Is thorough when performing work and conscientious about attending to detail.

2. Customer Service - Works with clients and customers (that is, any individuals who use or receive the services or products that your work unit produces, including the general public, individuals who work in the agency, other agencies, or organizations outside the Government) to assess their needs, provide information or assistance, resolve their problems, or satisfy their expectations; knows about available products and services; is committed to providing quality products and services.

3. Oral Communication - Expresses information (for example, ideas or facts) to individuals or groups effectively, taking into account the audience and nature of the information (for example, technical, sensitive, controversial); makes clear and convincing oral presentations; listens to others, attends to nonverbal cues, and responds appropriately.

4. Problem Solving - Identifies problems; determines accuracy and relevance of information; uses sound judgment to generate and evaluate alternatives, and to make recommendations.In addition to the basic requirements listed above applicants must possess a minimum of one year of specialized experience equivalent to at least the grade 12 in the normal line of progression for this occupation which should demonstrate mastery of and skill in applying the various phases of the system software development lifecycles, including requirements generation, design, code, verification and test, systems integration, and maintenance; knowledge of the physical systems for which software is being developed to be able to define scientific requirements and develop software requirements; knowledge of FORTRAN, C, scripting languages, Unix and Linux; knowledge of the current state of system software technology and related computer equipment in the assigned area; knowledge of mathematics, sufficient to be able to communicate with scientists and engineers concerning calculations and algorithms; knowledge of image handling, graphics, display systems, and database management systems; ability to develop software at the subsystem level while conforming to standards; ability to assess emerging technologies as alternatives to current practices; ability to provide expert technical guidance to management and other staff; ability to present findings to management and staff on complex issues; and the ability to communicate both orally and in writing.

APPLICATION PROCEDURE: We will only accept applications on line for this position.

For a copy of the complete vacancy announcement and how to apply, visit: USAJOBS

The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory is an equal opportunity employer committed to diversity in our workplace.

Link: MPC Job Posting

Applications for the GSA Planetary Science Division’s Eugene M. Shoemaker Impact Cratering Award are due September 9, 2011

2011-08-26T23:25:00.001-04:00

From Dr. David A. Kring, Ph.D. at the Center for Lunar Science & Exploration at the USRA – Lunar and Planetary Institute...

Applications for the GSA Planetary Science Division’s Eugene M. Shoemaker Impact Cratering Award are due September 9, 2011.

The Eugene M. Shoemaker Impact Cratering Award is for undergraduate or graduate students, of any nationality, working in any country, in the disciplines of geology, geophysics, geochemistry, astronomy, or biology. The award, which will include $2500, is to be applied for the study of impact craters, either on Earth or on the other solid bodies in the solar system. Areas of study may include but shall not necessarily be limited to impact cratering processes; the bodies (asteroidal or cometary) that make the impacts; or the geological, chemical, or biological results of impact cratering. Details about the award as well as an application form for interested students can be found here.

Link: Shoemaker Award Page

Next Pixar Film in 2013: Earth if K-T Extinction Event Did Not Happen

2011-08-22T01:02:00.000-04:00

The next Pixar film will involve a scenario where the K-T extinction event did not happen, and the resulting consequences for evolution on planet Earth. From the article...

Pixar films with explore two new worlds in two upcoming films - the land of dinosaurs and the world inside the human mind - filmmakers announced at the D23 Expo 2011 Saturday.

The fan exposition in Anaheim, Calif., featured the announcement of the two yet untitled movies as executives promoted the entire Disney/Pixar slate.

The untitled dinosaur film will be released in the holiday season of 2013. Bob Peterson, who co-directed and voiced Dug the dog in the monster Pixar hit Up, will direct the new movie. He said he was inspired by a childhood visit to the World's Fair in New York where he saw animatronic dinosaurs created by Walt Disney. "It made a big impression on me," he said.

Peterson said the premise of the film will take aim at the notion that dinosaurs were made instinct by a giant asteroid hitting the Earth."In this film, the asteroid missed the Earth and dinosaurs continued to live," he says.

Link: USA Today article

Masters Thesis: Design of a Surface Albedo Modification Payload for Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Mitigation

2011-08-21T18:35:00.002-04:00

A new Masters thesis paper from student Shen Ge at Texas A&M University called "Design of a Surface Albedo Modification Payload for Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Mitigation".

PAPER REFERENCE:

Design of a Surface Albedo Modification Payload for Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Mitigation

Authors:Shen Ge
Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE in Aerospace Engineering (August 2011)

Abstract: The development of the Surface Albedo Treatment System (SATS) onboard a spacecraft mission to the near earth asteroid (NEA) Apophis in 2012 is an innovative concept of deflecting NEAs from possible impact with the Earth through altering the Yarkovsky effect, a non-secular force in the solar system due to uneven surface thermal emission most profoundly affecting small rotating bodies subjected to sunlight. Though this force is small, its magnitude can be dramatic if extended over a period of time and if it uses the close approach of an asteroid near Earth to magnify the perturbation. The payload dispenses colored powder called albedo changing particles (ACPs) onto the surface changing its albedo and indirectly the surface temperature which changes the Yarkovsky effect. This study gives an in-depth description of both computational and experimental parts of the design of this system with primary focus on initial ground test setup. The initial experiments proposed to design the SATS is outlined in detail and justified by the mission criterion of interest as well as modeling the actual dispersal on the surface.

Link: Thesis (PDF)

Paper: Orbital dispersion and Earth-impact probability analysis for fragmented asteroids

2011-08-21T18:28:00.003-04:00

A new paper from Lee, et al called "Orbital dispersion and Earth-impact probability analysis for fragmented asteroids".

PAPER REFERENCE:

Orbital dispersion and Earth-impact probability analysis for fragmented asteroids

Authors:Daero Lee(a), John E. Cochran Jr.(b), and Tas Soo No(c)
a. Wind Power Grid-Adaptive Technology Research Center, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju 560-756, Republic of Korea
b. Department of Aerospace Engineering, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
c. Department of Aerospace Engineering, Chonbuk National University, Jeonju 560-756, Republic of Korea
Received 10 November 2010; revised 21 March 2011; accepted 25 May 2011. Available online 1 June 2011.

Abstract:This paper describes the orbital dispersion problem for a fragmented asteroid in an elliptical orbit. The use of a state transition matrix derived from the general relative equation of motion for an elliptical orbit is emphasized in this paper. The state transition matrix is used to propagate the orbital dispersion. The Earth-impact probability is then computed to obtain a measure of the likelihood of impact with the Earth after the asteroid is fragmented with a high-energy fragmentation method. The state transition matrix approach is also compared with numerical integration approaches that use the two-body equation and the general relative equations of motion. The computational efficiency of such a state transition matrix approach is verified with accuracy equal to the numerical integration approaches. The employed state transition matrix, known as the Cochran, Lee and Jo (CLJ) state transition matrix, is also evaluated for the numerous fragments with data from the burst.

Link: Paper (Reference)

Paper: Optimal impact strategies for asteroid deflection

2011-08-21T18:23:00.000-04:00

A new paper from Vasile, et al called "Optimal impact strategies for asteroid deflection".

PAPER REFERENCE:

Optimal impact strategies for asteroid deflection

Authors: Massimiliano Vasile, Camilla Colombo (Submitted on 25 Apr 2011)

Abstract:This paper presents an analysis of optimal impact strategies to deflect potentially dangerous asteroids. To compute the increase in the minimum orbit intersection distance of the asteroid due to an impact with a spacecraft, simple analytical formulas are derived from proximal motion equations. The proposed analytical formulation allows for an analysis of the optimal direction of the deviating impulse transferred to the asteroid. This ideal optimal direction cannot be achieved for every asteroid at any time; therefore, an analysis of the optimal launch opportunities for deviating a number of selected asteroids was performed through the use of a global optimization procedure. The results in this paper demonstrate that the proximal motion formulation has very good accuracy in predicting the actual deviation and can be used with any deviation method because it has general validity. Furthermore, the characterization of optimal launch opportunities shows that a significant deviation can be obtained even with a small spacecraft.

Cite as: arXiv:1104.4670v1 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: Paper (PDF format)

Ed Lu at TEDxNASA@SiliconValley 2011 on asteroid detection

2011-08-19T23:27:00.000-04:00

From ZDNet Smart Planet....At TEDxNASA in San Francisco, former astronaut and physicist Ed Lu discusses the need to develop an early-warning and precision tracking/guidance system to prevent asteroids from hitting the planet.

Media Confusion on ESA Don Quijote Mission

2011-08-18T21:24:00.002-04:00

A recent spate of news articles over the last 1-2 days needed some clarification regarding the ESA asteroid mission Don Quijote. I have noticed an inordinate amount of web articles on this mission yesterday and today (August 16-17), several years after it was analyzed as a potential mission concept study.

From some preliminary investigating it seems as if some of the articles/blogs that have carried this new item across the planet have indicated that the asteroid Apophis is a mission target (which it was not) and suggesting that the mission is more truly funded than it is (indicating a launch in 2015). One of the referenced articles is the London Daily Mail article. Another article is from Gizmodo and another article is from RedOrbit. These articles/posts seem to have been picked up and referenced by other news sources.

This FoxNews article attempts to correct the interpretation, the following comes from the article: "If an asteroid were ever detected, we'd want to do something -- and deflection is definitely one of the options," an ESA source told FoxNews.com. But despite a Daily Mail story touting the program as current, Don Quijote has long been shuttered. "The Don Quijote mission has been a study only. ESA is not working on this mission anymore," ESA spokesman Andreas Schepers told FoxNews.com.

My current perception is that this was a mission study that was never picked up by ESA for an actual mission (such as a NASA Discovery Class mission) since it was developed in a slightly different administrative area of ESA. UPDATE: The mission was initiated and performed by the ESA General Studies Programme in ESA's Future and Strategic Studies Office (with the technical support of the Concurrent Design Facility - CDF). The "missions" part of ESA did not pick up this concept study for an actual mission (my own estimate of ESA's organizational structure may be slightly off, but the general concept is probably correct). There may be attempts in the next 2-3 years to market this mission concept by ESA to its management within the EU but my opinion is that there is no actual funded mission as such as indicated in these articles (unfortunately for those with an interest in this area).

Generally, I think one would want to be very careful of any asteroid mitigation demonstration mission on the asteroid Apophis. That would probably be a test target of last resort. Given the uncertainty of effect of any impact mitigation mission, one would want to choose a relatively benign target (which Apophis is not given potential for disruption in its orbit during certain keyhole passes at a minimum). This comment is not mean to be any negative comment on any one specific news source but an attempt to clarify the general media record.

Here is some accurate information from the European Space Agency (ESA) on the mission: Don Quijote mission page.

Update: Video Report from Australia that also potentially adds confusion to the story in terms of the current status of the Don Quijote mission.

Paper: Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

2011-08-18T01:48:00.001-04:00

From the MIT Technology Review article of a new paper from Wolters, et al called "Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission"...

In 2002, the European Space Agency began a program called Don Quijote to find out how best to perform such a deflection. Don Quijote involves sending two spacecraft to a near Earth asteroid; one to smash into it and the other to watch while in orbit above the impact crater. The goal is to change the asteroid's semimajor axis by more than 100 metres and to measure the change with an accuracy greater than 1 per cent. But the question is how best to monitor what's going on in a way that is relevant to other asteroids. After all, the ultimate plan is to use the information from this mission to move some other asteroid with our name on it. Now, Stephen Wolters at the Open University in the UK and a few friends have published a new analysis of the mission saying that measuring the change in orbit is not enough. Instead, the spacecraft needs to characterise the impact in detail, determining the density of the material near the asteroid's surface, the size of the surface grains as well as the mass and speed distribution of the impact ejecta. Only with this information will it be possible to work out exactly how the momentum from the impactor was transferred to the asteroid. That significantly changes the mission. In addition to an on-board radio transmitter that will allow space scientists back on Earth to work out its distance exactly, the spacecraft will need a sophisticated imaging suite capable of photographing the damage and carrying out infrared spectroscopy to determine the asteroid's mineral content.

PAPER REFERENCE:

Measurement requirements for a near-Earth asteroid impact mitigation demonstration mission

Authors: Stephen D. Wolters, Andrew J. Ball, Nigel Wells, Christopher Saunders, Neil McBride (Submitted on 21 Jul 2011)

Abstract: A concept for an Impact Mitigation Preparation Mission, called Don Quijote, is to send two spacecraft to a Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA): an Orbiter and an Impactor. The Impactor collides with the asteroid while the Orbiter measures the resulting change in the asteroid's orbit, by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) carried out before and after impact. Three parallel Phase A studies on Don Quijote were carried out for the European Space Agency: the research presented here reflects outcomes of the study by QinetiQ. We discuss the mission objectives with regards to the prioritisation of payload instruments, with emphasis on the interpretation of the impact. The Radio Science Experiment is described and it is examined how solar radiation pressure may increase the uncertainty in measuring the orbit of the target asteroid. It is determined that to measure the change in orbit accurately a thermal IR spectrometer is mandatory, to measure the Yarkovsky effect. The advantages of having a laser altimeter are discussed. The advantages of a dedicated wide-angle impact camera are discussed and the field-of-view is initially sized through a simple model of the impact.

Cite as: arXiv:1107.4229v1 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: MIT Technology Review Article

Link: Paper (PDF format)

Paper: Utilization of H-reversal Trajectory of Solar Sail for Asteroid Deflection

2011-08-18T01:44:00.003-04:00

From the MIT Technology Review article of a new paper from Gong, et al called "Utilization of H-reversal Trajectory of Solar Sail for Asteroid Deflection"...

Apophis is a 46 million tonne asteroid that will pass within a hair's breath of Earth in 2029. However, Apophis's trajectory is likely to take it through a region of space near Earth known as a keyhole that will ensure the asteroid returns in 2036.Nobody knows how close Apophis will come on that pass. But if there's a chance of a collision, we'll have only 7 years to work out how to avoid catastrophe.Today, Shengping Gong and pals at Tsinghua University in Beijing say they've come up with a plan that will ensure Apophis never returns to Earth on this timescale .They point out that keyholes are tiny, in this case just 600 metres wide. So deflecting Apophis by only a small amount in the near future will ensure it misses the keyhole and so cannot return to Earth.There are various ways to deflect an asteroid. Gong and pals say their preference is to use a solar sail to place a small spacecraft into a retrograde orbit and on collision course with Apophis. The retrograde orbit will give it an impact velocity of 90km/s which, if they do this well enough in advance, should lead to a collision large enough to do the trick.

PAPER REFERENCE:

Utilization of H-reversal Trajectory of Solar Sail for Asteroid Deflection

Authors: Shengping Gong, Junfeng Li, Xiangyuan Zeng(Submitted on 16 Aug 2011)

Abstract: Near Earth Asteroids have a possibility of impacting with the Earth and always have a thread on the Earth. This paper proposes a way of changing the trajectory of the asteroid to avoid the impaction. Solar sail evolving in a H-reversal trajectory is utilized for asteroid deflection. Firstly, the dynamics of solar sail and the characteristics of the H-reversal trajectory are analyzed. Then, the attitude of the solar sail is optimized to guide the sail to impact with the object asteroid along a H-reversal trajectory. The impact velocity depends on two important parameters: the minimum solar distance along the trajectory and lightness number. A larger lightness number and a smaller solar distance lead to a higher impact velocity. Finally, the deflection capability of a solar sail impacting with the asteroid along the H-reversal is discussed. The results show that a 10 kg solar sail with a lead-time of one year can move Apophis out of a 600-m keyhole area in 2029 to eliminate the possibility of its resonant return in 2036.

Cite as: arXiv:1108.3183v1 [astro-ph.IM]

Link: MIT Technology Review Article

Link: Paper (PDF format)

Dr. Tom Gehrels (1925-2011): Planetary Scientist and Astronomer

2011-07-12T12:32:00.002-04:00

News announcement from the University of Arizona. From the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory In Memoriam Page for Dr. Tom Gehrels...

Professor Tom Gehrels, 1925–2011

Professor Tom Gehrels joined the UA's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory (LPL) in 1961 as an Associate Professor. He earned his B.S. in Physics and Astronomy from Leiden (Netherlands) University in 1951, and his Ph.D. in Astronomy and Astrophysics from the University of Chicago in 1956.

While at Chicago, he worked with Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar and Gerard P. Kuiper (who founded LPL in 1960). Dr. Gehrels' distinguished science career featured many highlights. During the 1950s, Professor Gehrels pioneered the first photometric system of asteroids and discovered the opposition effect in the brightness of asteroids. In the 1960s, he pioneered wavelength dependence of polarization of stars and planets. His research interests then migrated to imaging photopolarimetry of Jupiter and Saturn, and Dr. Gehrels was named principal investigator for the Pioneer 10 and 11 Imaging Photopolarimeters, which discovered Saturn's F ring.

In 1980, Tom Gehrels founded the Spacewatch Project, which uses telescopes on Kitt Peak to survey the sky for dangerous asteroids; he led the project until 1997. Professor Gehrels also founded the well known and well respected Space Science Series, still published by the University of Arizona Press. He served as general editor for the first 30 volumes of the series. At its start in the 1980s, the Space Science Series represented a new way of producing research textbooks. In 2007, Tom Gehrels was the recipient of the Harold Masursky Award, presented by the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in recognition of meritorious service to planetary science.

Professor Gehrels' recent research interests were in universal evolution. Each fall, he taught an undergraduate course for non-science majors at the University of Arizona and each spring, he presented a brief version of that course at the Physical Research Laboratory in Ahmedabad, India, where he was a lifetime Fellow.

Link: University of Arizona News Announcement

Link: LPL In Memoriam Page (Tom Gehrels)

Link: Wikipedia (Tom Gehrels)

Link: PryS/LPL Faculty Page

Link: mpml annoucement

Article: Anders Sandberg on Progress in Mitigating Asteroid Impact Risks

2011-05-17T21:57:00.001-04:00

Anders Sandberg, postdoctoral fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University, gave the keynote address at the May 9-12, 2011, Planetary Defense Conference in Bucharest, Romania sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Here is his short microsummary of the event:

Microsummary: we are on the right track!

The latest estimates of the NEO size distribution by Alan W Harris retain the shape of previous estimates, a power law with a pretty steep exponent and an unexplained ‘dimple’ where there are too few 10-100 m NEOs.

Donald Yeomans showed that the impact flux from comets is small compared to Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) (less than a percent). Satelite surveys have produced a flood of data (check out this animation or my graphs) and we have good reason to think we have already seen a sizeable fraction of the NEAs that would be serious global catastrophic risks (GCRs) - and they are in orbits that are safe for at least the next century. This has really reduced the expected risk.

The mandate from the US Congress wants a 90% completion by 2020 for the big (>140) NEAs, which might be tough unless there is some extra push (ideally a Venus orbit satelite or more time at the Large Synoptic Survey).

The LSS will be able to catch a lot of 45 m objects 1-3 months out, and people are starting to seriously look at finding smaller objects on their “death plunge” just before they hit Earth. They pose just local risk (if any at all) but as the GCR risk is retired their relative risk go up. Mark Boslough showed that some of them might produce pretty destructive airbursts. This domain also deals with the “we are going to be so successful that we are going to put ourselves out of business” problem - we are 10 times more likely to save lives by including imminent impactors in the next surveys, although the number of lives saved might be smallish.

Obama’s call for a manned NEO mission is a tough challenge, mainly because the best objects from a mission technical perspective (low deltav etc) might be smaller than the spaceship! Overall, NEO missions are maturing but the Japanese seem to be a decade ahead with Hayabusa and Hayabusa II.

Deflecting asteroids with kinetic impactors looks pretty good, but a lot hinges on the porosity of the asteroid. A fluffy asteroid just absorbs the impact, while a “hard” asteroid will eject a plume of debris that gives an extra push. Unfortunately we have no way of measuring the porosity, so plenty of talks investigated models and ways of estimating it.

Gravity tractors are wimpy, but seem to be fairly close to a realistic technology. They are pretty useless for deflecting an asteroid away from Earth, but enough for preventing it from going through a keyhole. This makes them a pretty ideal supplement for any mission. Flotillas of tractors can be more effective than single tractors. Paul W. Chodas also showed that there are “Jabbas”, robust states of an orbit that are hard to budge.

Nuclear deflection looks like it is workable, but it is definitely a last resort and mainly useful for imminent hits. Some serious issues about how to avoid dispersing loosely held together impactors. The main problem is getting the warheads to the impactor in time and to have them detonate at the right standoff distance.

Erick Ball described a real “Armageddon” scenario where a 5 km long periodic comet discovered ~290 days out could be deflected if mankind really got its act together - something we all felt was doubtful. Several other deflection methods (laser ablation, robotic rockthrowing, ion beam shepherds, painting to cause Yarkovsky effect deviations…) are investigated but not ready from prime time. Another problem is that NEOs seem to be quite different from each other, and methods that work for one type might need to be tweaked for other types.

Organisationally, things are moving forward. NEO study and defense is becoming more and more organised in the big space agencies, the UN and the US government. Some interesting notes from Frans von der Dunk on the legal aspects: check out the report “Legal Aspects of NEO Threat Response and Related Institutional Issues.”

In particular, the ‘responsibility to protect’ might apply here, requiring states to have capabilities to deal with NEO risks. There are also an interesting possible tradeoff between sharing information and doing missions in an open manner and avoiding liability: if damage occurs in the course of a NEO response states might not be held liable as long as the mission is within parameters set by proper mandate international community groups.

My own talk was about the issue of cognitive bias and rationality in impact mitigation. Basically, our biases are interfering with both the public, decisionmakers and the research community, and overcoming them is an important part in public relations, explaining the situation and doing the research. Not all of them are bad for the impact risk community: the preference for hard numbers really helps it in the “competition” with softer risks. But availability bias (it has never happened, never will) and scope neglect (a million dead are just
statistics) make many decisions rather irrational.

There are also problems with planetary defence being a public good, being long-term (it might be rational to put off doing things for a while, since tech is advancing - but this easily leads to putting off doing things too long; the “sweet spot” might be a decade, about a political lifetime) and discounting the future too heavily.

However, I think the impact community are an example to all of us dealing with other existential risks. They are doing a pretty good job. They have managed to 1) demonstrate the existence of a risk and quantify it, 2) convinced enough decisionmakers to fund preliminary investigation, 3) built a lively interdisciplinary community devoted to the risk and mitigation (with an inflow of new students carrying on and developing the thinking). Other risk communities may do well to study how they did it.

And finally, a great motto: “There ain’t no such thing as a free launch.”

Link: Article ("Anders Sandberg on Progress in Mitigating Asteroid Impact Risks")

Video: Asteroid Deflection Research Center

2011-05-16T19:26:00.000-04:00

Link: YouTube Video ("Asteroid Deflection Research Center")

Paper: "New applications of the H-reversal trajectory using solar sails"

2011-05-16T19:15:00.000-04:00

New applications of the H-reversal trajectory using solar sails

Xiangyuan Zeng, Hexi Baoyin, Junfeng Li, Shengping Gong
(Submitted on 8 Mar 2011)

Abstract:
Advanced solar sailing has been an increasingly attractive propulsion system for highly non-Keplerian orbits. Three new applications of the orbital angular momentum reversal (H-reversal) trajectories using solar sails are presented in this paper: space observation, heliocentric orbit transfer, and collision orbits with asteroids. A theoretical proof for the existence of double H-reversal trajectories (referred to as 'H2RTs') is given, and the characteristics of the H2RTs are introduced before the discussion of the mission applications. A new family of H2RTs was obtained using a 3D dynamic model of the two-body frame. In a time-optimal control model, the minimum period H2RTs both inside and outside the ecliptic plane were examined using an ideal solar sail. Due to the quasi-heliostationary property at its two symmetrical aphelia, the H2RTs were deemed suitable for space observation. For the second application, the heliocentric transfer orbit was able to function as the time-optimal H-reversal trajectory, as its perihelion velocity is circular or elliptic velocity. Such a transfer orbit can place the sailcraft into a clockwise orbit in the ecliptic plane, with a high inclination or displacement above or below the Sun. The third application of the H-reversal trajectory was simulated impacting an asteroid passing near Earth in a head-on collision. The collision point can be designed through selecting different perihelia or different launch windows. Sample orbits of each application were presented through numerical simulation. The results can serve as a reference for theoretical research and engineering design.

Link: Paper reference

Link: Paper [PDF}

Paper: "Planetary Defense and an Energy Infrastructure for Near Earth Space"

2011-05-16T19:10:00.001-04:00

Planetary Defense and an Energy Infrastructure for Near Earth Space

Fork, R.; Burgess, L.; Bergstue, G.; Gaillard, R.; Dept. of Electr./Comput. Eng., Univ. of Alabama Huntsville, Huntsville, AL, USA

Proceedings of the IEEE
Issue Date: March 2011
Volume: 99 Issue:3
On page(s): 359 - 362
ISSN: 0018-9219
INSPEC Accession Number: 11821910
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1109/JPROC.2010.2096250
Date of Current Version: 17 February 2011
Sponsored by: IEEE

Abstract:
The White House Office of Science and Technology (OSTP), in response to recent Congressional action, assigned National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) the task of: "(A) protecting the United States from a near-Earth object that is expected to collide with Earth; and (B) implementing a deflection Digital Object campaign. A "functional analysis" of the task was recommended. A planetary defense strategy was considered to such an analysis. Using lasers in space for planetary defense and space energy infrastructure will reduce the current cost of lift to orbit, remove debris from space, assist in rescuing astronauts in difficulty, and deliver energy to other resources in space, and possibly, even eventually to Earth.

Link: IEEE XPlore

SGAC Future of Planetary Defense Video Clips

2011-05-16T15:48:00.001-04:00

The Space Generation Advisory Council (SGAC) hosted a one day public event on the Future of Planetary Defense, prior to the start of the 2nd IAA Planetary Defense conference. These are selected videos from the event.

Link: YouTube Video ("Future of Planetary Defense News Broadcast.AVI")

Link: YouTube Video ("Rusty-about-Dorin_480p.wmv")

Posts from Bruce Betts at The Planetary Society on 2nd IAA Planetary Defense Conference

2011-05-16T15:34:00.000-04:00

Bruce Betts from The Planetary Society had two blog posts summarizing some days at the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference:

Bruce Betts reports from the Planetary Defense Conference in Romania
May. 9, 2011 | 15:00 PDT | 22:00 UTC

Day 2: Planetary Defense conference in Bucharest, Romania
May. 10, 2011 | 15:59 PDT | 22:59 UTC

Annoucement: 2013 IAA Planetary Defense Conference in Flagstaff, Arizona USA (April 15-19, 2013)

2011-05-16T11:17:00.000-04:00

The 2013 International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) Planetary Defense Conference will be held from April 15-19, 2013 in Flagstaff, Arizona USA. This announcement was made at the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. The 2013 conference will be organized by the NASA NEO office with potential assistance from several academic institutions in Arizona. Flagstaff is close to Barringer Crater.

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 4 Session 8

2011-05-12T07:15:00.000-04:00

Notes from Day 4 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 4 (Thursday 12 May 2011) Session 8
Legal, Policy, POlitical Framework for Planetary Defense

- A'Hearn
"Recommendations of the US NRC Study on NEOs"
asked by US Congress a few years ago about NEO Surveys and NEO Hazard Mitigation
released Jan. 2010, reviewed 2006 NASA report
>-8 members from study at 2011 IAA PDC
different types of personnel (nukes, anti-nukes, robotic/astronaut enthusiasts)
independent costs estimates obtained but not in time (including in written report)

1. Cannot meet congressional mandate by 2020 (written in 2009), 90% of d>140m requires new technology
2. Venue trailing orbit can be done by 2022 if funding is available ($2-3B including 7 years of operations) - NRC Ah Hoc comm advocated in-space obs.
3. probably IR but maybe in optical
4. LSST could be it by 2025, by 2030, or sonner in NEO-optimized shared mods

Survey try to find smaller object less than 140m (30-50m diameter) if font interfere with >140m objects, do not stop once you have found <140 m objects
Arecibo radar important

4 approaches to mitigation: civil defense, slow push (tug, solar heating, albdeo change, GT), kinetic impact, nuclear blast
boundary between technique is fuzzy

Q: NRC report misunderstands role of gravity tractor, Rusty: not a deflection for an Earth impact, mission for keyhole impact (necessary for every mission) - needed for all missions, keyhole deflector not an earth deflector

Q: break connection of disruption with last minute defense

- Sergio Comacho
"Progress of NEO Activities within the UN COPUOS"

talks about Action Team 14 (on NEOs) and UN CONPUOS

Report by ASE's international panel on asteroid threat mitigation
finished 30 Sept. 2008m Nov. 2008 summary presented by AT-14

NEOs preocess under a work plan - 2009 until 2011 (work carried out by STSC(and its WG) and CONPUOS, internsessionally bt AT-14

Workshop on a NEO mission planning and operations group (MPOG) at ESA's ESOC in Darmstadt in Oct. 2010

Interim report, L.308, contains an annex to the revised " Draft Recommendation for international response to the Near Earth Object Impact Threat"

AT-14 (27 members) and WG reviewed L.308 and those updates were incorporated in the interim report of AT-14 (2011-2012)

Multi-year work plan on NEOs has been extended for two more years (2012-2013)
Intersessional work in 2011-2012 could include workshops of experts on various aspects of draft recommendations made by Action Team
Intersessional work on 2011-2012 to talk about MPOG

- Boris Shustov
"National NEO Program Plans" [in Russia]
Space Council for Russian Academy of Sciences include group looking at space debris and NEOs

Two major bodies include Russian Federal Agency (Yuri Makarov) and Russian Academy of Sciences (Ministry, 230 institutions)

Space Council of Russian Academy of Sciences
Activity on NEO problem in Russia is rising
Book on NEOs, published in Russia in 2010 (written in two levels)

Need a comprehensive (federal) program in Russia on international cooperation on NEOs

draft concept of long etmer federal NEO program group prepared by Expert Working Group on ACH by the Space Council of the RAS

June 2010, special joint meeting of the heads of Federal Space Agency and RAS was held

Roscomos and RAS want to integrate NEOs and space debris, preliminary name: "System of Mitigation of Space Threats", program under preparation, complex program (detail) presented in fall of 2011

items:
- new optical instruments for massive discovery
- wide-angle 1.6 m telescope (400-1100 nm) AZT-33VM
- space born telescope for NEOs
- includes follow-up observatories
- radar technology for NEos (Ukraine and Russian): 70m radar in Ussuriisk for study of PHO
- Space mission, pre phase A study of automated mission is completed, Phase A will be completed in 2012, study physical properties of PHA (maybe Apophis)
- put a radio beacon on asteroid (depends on Phobos-Grunt mission scheduled for launch in Nov. 2011)

Lockne meteorite crater: formed 450m years ago by impact of 600 meters

Tunguska investigation included in program

- Lindley Johnson
NASA HQ
references OSTP letter dates 15 oct. 2010 (response to NASA Authorization Act)

Damon Wells from OSTP coordinated from presentation

US National Policy in June 28, 2010 document: first time NASA policy specifies NEO threat action, first time in such a document at such a level, provided leverage for NASA to work with other agencies
plus up from NEO program from $5M program to $20.4M program
new plans for NEO human missions by 2025

NEO threat detection:

NASA will coordinate NEO detection and threat information, NASA would include direction of public information, NASA has set up information process for threats

upon notification from NASA:
1. threat to US territory, FEMA takes lead (FEMA can only advise on evacuation)
2. beyond US territory, US Department of State facilities efforts

homework needs to be done from WH perspective on potential NEO mitigation/deflection as to maturity of who to assign it to? (NASA-unclear)

Q: in terms of mitigation, who is leading within NASA
A: see the OCT put it in one of their calls, needs still to be organized: what is the outcome of the PD task force: has not been decided by the administrator: hope can announce at LPSC next year, perhaps not under one directorate, opportunities under Science and Space Exploration, and maybe technologist, may need to be a PLD coordination office to keep a focus on the activity

News Article: NASA's Dawn Captures First Image of Nearing Asteroid [Vesta]

2011-05-12T03:27:00.000-04:00

Image obtained by NASA's Dawn spacecraft of the giant asteroid Vesta in front of a background of stars. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA/MPS/DLR/IDA

This image, processed to show the true size of the giant asteroid Vesta, shows Vesta in front of a spectacular background of stars. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA/MPS/DLR/IDA

From the article...

NASA's Dawn spacecraft has obtained its first image of the giant asteroid Vesta, which will help fine-tune navigation during its approach. Dawn is expected to achieve orbit around Vesta on July 16, when the asteroid is about 188 million kilometers (117 million miles) from Earth.

Link: News Release

Video from NatGeoChannel Known Universe simulating the impact of a large asteroid

2011-05-12T03:25:00.000-04:00

L:ink: Video

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 4 Session 7

2011-05-12T02:58:00.001-04:00

Notes from Day 4 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 4 (Thursday 12 May 2011) Session 7
Student Session

- Charlotte Norlund
"NEOMiss: A New Earth Object Devision Support Tool"

Looking down at Earth, tool for investigation human vulnerability, uses the physical simulator used in NEOimpactor and NEOSim, previous work by Nick Bailey

includes uncertainties in model and data, uses a Monte Carlo approach, vulnerability models made for five land impact hazards, multi-hazard simulator, only looking at land impact and not water impact, behavior-based evacuation models base don US hurricane model
uses global gridded data (1x1km grid)
transportation: car, moped, walking options
National infrastructure: uses OpenStreetMap data (source of infrastructure data) and created gridded road network capacity and flow times
San Jose, CR evacuation simulation: evacuating an area north of San Jose is a challenge: 3.5 days is not enough (15% manage to evacuate)
An average of 2% of population in the affected area will be causalities along the Apophis risk corridor

Q: issues of different roads
Q: issue of different human perception
Q: issue of temporary or permanent evacuation

- Farnocchia, Davide
"The performances of A wide survey on a population of impactors"
deep survey: large objects >140m and large distance (0.5-1AU) for large warning time
wide survey: small objects < 140m, visible during close approach, wide field of view

Wide survey is a possible European asset (limited superposition with US surveys, significant NEO discovery rate)

survey stations: 4 survey stations (limiting mag from 23 and 21.5)
tracklet: set of observations in a short time span, need at least three tracklets for orbit

Q: issue on ecliptic region and looking for impactors there.

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 3 Session 6

2011-05-11T07:45:00.003-04:00

Notes from Day 3 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 3 (Wednesday 11 May 2011) Session 6
Mission Planning and Technologies

- Housen, K.
"Measuring the Momentum Transfer for Asteroid Deflection"
crater profile does not depend too much on void spaces
impact disruption of spinning bodies
rapid rotators will be more susceptible to disruption in a deflection mission
Beta for sand at 2km/s is 2, 10-20km/s for beta=3
beta may depend strongly on porosity

- Golubov
Influence of intermediate scale structure on Yarkovsky and YORP effects
YORP first pointed out by Rubincam
Asteroid Itokawa doe not demonstrate YORP model

- Andrew Klesh
Improved Navigation Techniques for Asteroid Landers and Impactors
based on JAXA work, Hayabusa 2 work

landed accuracy: NEAR (several hundred meters), Hayabusa, Marco Polo (3.5 n), H2 (several tens of meters)

Tracking features may not be an option
navigation by radio ranging

- Bombardelli, C.
"Ion Beam Shephred: A New Concept for Asteroid Deflection"

Ion Beam Shepherd (IBS)

primary ion engine pointed at asteroid surface, secondary propulsion to avoid IBS from drifting away from asteroid
currently under study by ESA and TU Madrid for space debris removal applications
beam divergence: need to make sure beam does not expand too much
for example. taking SOA thrusters, get 5-15 degrees and March of 20-30, handle 150 m diameter asteroid from a distance of 200m or less from center (50 m from surface)
force transmitted: penetrate asteroid surface a few nanometers, backsputtering is low
can beam pressure damage asteroid: local beam mechanical pressure: for example for 100m diameter asteroid, a 10N beam gives a peak pressure of less than 6mPa
for one year of thrusting have a Isp - 9000s
with Isp = 3k seconds
for asteroid below 500m gravity force is low
slow push asteroid deflection performance,
case: 2007 VK184 (D=130m)
1 N thrust for 2 years = 5 MT IBS (3000 sec Isp)
Gravity tractor needs more mass for same effect as IBS (50 MT needed for 150 m asteroid)

- Hayabusa2 Mission (Yoshikawa) - presented by alternative
has become project (Phase B)
budgetary request for H2 project was approved, on May 1, 2011 status of project becomes Phase B and under PDR (Preliminary Design Review)
C-type (1999 JU3) target now
0.922 km , around 1km in size (not irregular)
Spectrum is different
Launch of July 2014, arrival in June 2018, 3 samplings (sample, crater, and 2 samplings), reath return in 2019/2020,
500 m altitude release, canister will explode with projectile release, spacecraft will fly over crater and take sample)
small lander (MASCOT - under discussion): DLR/CNES MASCOT (10 kg lander) Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout
NASA: similar as H1
international collaboration may be possible

Canadian NEOSSat at 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference

2011-05-11T07:31:00.002-04:00

Canadian NEOSSat (Near Earth Object Surveillance Satellite) at 2011 IAA planetary defense conference

Fully funded PhD in asteroid deflection research at Univ of Surrey in UK

2011-05-11T07:29:00.004-04:00

Fully funded PhD in asteroid deflection research at Univ of Surrey in UK

Aerospace Corp developing web based first order asteroid deflection / kinetic impactor design tool

2011-05-11T07:28:00.002-04:00

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 3 Session 5

2011-05-11T03:29:00.041-04:00

Notes from Day 3 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 3 (Wednesday 11 May 2011) Session 5
Campaign Planning

- J-T Grundman
AsteroidSQAUDS/iSSB - Synergistic NEO Deflection Campaign and Mitigation Effects Test Mission
DLR

reflection of past IAA 2009 conference white paper: campaign studies and focus on smaller objects
looking at desires of various missions: heavy launcher development, fast mission scenarios, low space debris generation, include amateurs,
small and smart interceptor design produced in advance of heavy launch vehicle development
launcher test schedule triggers search for suitable target (3-6 months to launch)
every month 8-20 known NEOs approach Earth within 0.2 AU
NEAs about the size of 100m chosen
instruments: ranger like camera bank, dust counters, plasma instruments
take the AsteroidFinder spacecraft
have a more modular approach to spacecraft development
using CEF (Concurrent Engineering Facility)
put a kit together
interceptor: 179 kg mass
fits in standard secondary payload volume
took a Ariane 5 model for heavy life (12 MT to GTO)
20 impactors on a launch vehicle
Use Shoemaker Levi 9 multiple impact scenario

Q: need for observer spacecraft for any deflection
A: not about a proper deflection (testing mission) - not a deflection

- A. Zimmer
"Target Selection and Mission Analysis of Human Exploration Missions to NEAs"
Univ. of Stuttgart

complex trade space, multiple NEAs too many filers, launch window investigation, mission abort options
better understanding of parameter space for trajectory options for human missions

accessibility model: pre-selection of asteroid, based on celestial mechanics rather than scientific gain
approach: based on upper stage performance, departure from LEO, two impulse round trip mission, termination condition: deltaV limit (first burn) <10k/s, mission duration <365 days

verification of model: used 7812 NEAs, size criterion (H<=25) and slow rotation rate, 6704 NEAS, then semi-major axis, eccentricity, inclination: 2567 NEAs, then termination condition:
left with 240 NEAs between 2010 and 2040
statisitics: most attractive tragets with deltaV<7.5 km/s left with 73 targets - most of PHAs, pre-dominantly Atens and Apollos, many targets require long missions and high DeltaV
absolute mag less than 22-only about 20 NEOs

170 launch windows between 2020 and 2040
gradually increase in mission duration and then increase time with 1 mission every 2 years
looking at anytime abort (duration of return to Earth minimized) and free return (delta V minimized)
only investigated outbound mission leg only (once at asteroid)
long missions (= 365 day return, free return possible, anytime abort is limited)

better understand of abort options and assessment of prx ops, and Near Earth Largrnage points
design a building block of architecture

- Sugimoto, Y.
"Effects of NEO Composition on Deflection Methodologies"
Univ. of Glasgow

Looking at short warning time cases
for small bodies mass is not always available and estimate from bulk density if highly unlikely
most abundant NEOs are S-type asteroids (about 50%)
evidence theory can quantify epistemic uncertainties without assuming a distribution function specific to asteroid composition
NEO properties: micro-density, micro-porosity, bulk porosity, and albedo (out dist. on those)

two measures of uncertainty: beliefs and plausibility
set scene, set a baseline composition: 40% bulk porosity and 3.6g/cm?^2, and 0m2 albedo
deviation required (1.66 Earth-radii and 2.5 Earth-radii safe distance)

three types of mitigation missions: kinetic, nuclear, and solar collector
Q: did listing of meteorite densities did it include all data: did not include data, only a fraction of data are usable since meteorites have been weathered and potential better samples needed that are less weathered and handled better
Q: what is important is physical properties

- Cyrus Foster
"Multiple Concepts and Operations for Asteroid Mitigation including Multiple Gravity Tractors"

Deflection campaigns uses more than gravity tractor
redundant gravity tractor for insurance against failure

how does deflection scale with use of multiple gravity tractors
three concepts: single gravity tractors at a time, simultaneously tractor GTs w/station keeping, simultaneously tracting with mechanical docking to form single gravity tractor
used Apophis
looking at six launch opportunities: sending single 1MT gravity tractor

Concept 1: single GT at a time
other GTs an acts are tracking and use as backup
simpler operational concept but poorer deflection, total deflection of 76.1 km

Concept 2: simultaneous GTs
station keep around single point (could also be interested in halo orbits)
enables simultaneous ops but
total deflection of 122.4 km

Concept 3: mechanical docking approach
eliminates strict station keeping requirements but requires mechanical interface and docking ops

Concept 3b: keep empty gravity tractor docked
total deflection of 134.6 km

for Apophis: docked stacking provided a 10% improvement,

Trajectory Browser Tool at NASA Ames (web based tool to search rendezvous opportunities)
transfer from Earth to 8k NEOs and user can access database and select constraints
database of 2 body ballistic trajectories for various missions configurations

Mission Design Center Small Body Missions at NASA Ames
currently a NASA internal website

Q: perhaps increase efficiency for concept 1 if one if to use expended GT is sent

Q: use kinetic impactor and GT to trim perhaps, that might be easier
A: for Apophis multiple gravity tractor is overkill for this example (just providing it for example)

Q: how robust is the scenario are, launching GT at different times, putting GT later

Q: Looked at refueling GTs
A: Have not considered

Q: is the NEO tool distinguish types of NEOs based upon quality of observations
A: Yes, have orbit condition code as user input

- Nahum Melamed
"Development of Handbook and an online tool on Defending Earth against potentially hazardous objects"

develop a handbook for kinetic impact
develop a web based resource center for first order deflection mission requirements
aid in KI design
outreach

characterize NEO, determine deflection maneuver by using Lambert solution, select launch vehicle, determine deltaV, determine B Plan position
currently development B plane position is finished, working on the determine the trajectory phase portion
available on JPL portal at future stage

Current state of the web tool (Phase 1a)

ongoing development, save and retrieve buttons, B-plan updates, add variable resolution on earth impacts, possibly to vary to DeltaV slides, show keyholes,

Phase 1b development:
integrate with launch capability and use LV payload planners guide, use Lambert solution to connect departure, get DeltaV to imparted NEO

tool ready in a could of months

- Andres Glavez
"ESA Asteroid Mission Studies: What we have learnt"

Don Quijote was an interesting exercise

how can a generic precursor be defined? complicated missions, many options, have freedom how to select a target (not like reality), multiple trade-offs in architecture

clever use of orbital mechanics (Don Q. Mission): dual launch with spacecraft separated into different trajectories
flexible mission timelines
orbit stability
be prepared for the unexpected
mission layer is related to the type of information mission is expected to gather

radio science experiment: requires iterative process with determination of position and computation of position of asteroid

- Sam Wagner
"Robotic and Human Exploration/Deflection Mission Design for Asteroid Apophis"
Human mission requirements for 180 and 365 day crewed mission
2028/2029 human mission
two launch windows for each close encounter
180 days is the max for most NASA missions
for 2028/2029 launch dates, very small launch windows (2-12 days)
180 day summary, need 12 km/s
365 day mission: lower Delta V required, 6 km/s deltaV needed, similar to Ares I with Orion
Use Apophis for NEO missions, similar to Lunar deltaV with 6.5-7 km/s

Fictional crewed 2036 deflection missions: minimum one year mission length, 8.5 km/s deltaV
launch window exactly one year prior to impact, arrival 15 days prior to impact (only one chance)
Apophis arrival, departures, Earth arrival in last 1.5 months

Fictional post 2029 Intercept mission
continuously launch from 2035-2036, max deltaV is 4 km/s
arrival velocities from 0.09 - 20 km/s

Human pilot Mission Conclusions:

180 day mission: 11-12 km/s
365 mission: 6.5-7 km.s

- Erik Ball
"NEO Object Interception Using Nuclear Thermal Rocket Propulsion"
in place of Steven Hoewe

Scenario: Need to deflect large long Period Comet (10 km)
deflection or destruction

minimum energy for example is 3300 terajoules, thermonuclear explosion
NTR is very useful for such applications, CSNR worked on such NTRs,
chose NTR since high specific impulse (engine T/W, 6:1) up to 1000s ISP
ROVER/NERVA tests

yield requirements for deflection: scales linearly with comet size (effect based on comet properties are unknown), effects of trapped volatiles
surface burst or close standoff
40km/s: penetration impossible
Beta assumption: 3X10-4 (kg*m/s)/J
hundreds of megatons for large comet

independent variables: time of launch, angle of launch, rocket delta-V

optimize trade off between high mission deltaV and high payload mass
choose best engine size (larger engine is more mass but more thrust reduces gravity drag)

how crucial is an early launch (fast mission: 50 days before impact): high deltaV, later launches (12-27 days before impact) have 20-40 days for launch windows
early interceptor have a high fuel mass, low fuel mass but high payload mass, optimal point at about 17 days before impact (0.25 T/W of interceptor rocket)
Chemical rocket not a feasible rocket because mass to LEO is very high for chemical
even low thrust is too massive and not enough thrust for short time
3600 MT in LEO (very massive

how big could we deal with (21 HLLV in 2-3 months, carrying 20 MT interception - 1 MT is engine, most if fuel mass), 9 MT of payload, arrive at comet within 2 days of each other (7-8 month flight time), mission deltaV is 7 km/s

perhaps may be able to get up to 5 km diameter in terms of mitigation with feasible approaches
need to have technology ready perhaps

NASA Ames Mission Design Center web based NEO browser tool to search pre computed trajectories

2011-05-11T03:27:00.007-04:00

NASA Ames Mission Design Center is developing a web based NEO browser tool to search pre computed trajectories, database of 2 body ballistic trajectories for various mission configurations, could also filter by orbit condition codes, currently a NASA internal website but plans for public release

Image: twitpic

Andrew Bacon from SGAC on Romanian TV talks about NEOs, during week of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference

2011-05-11T02:52:00.001-04:00

Amenintarea din cer - va fi Pamantul distrus de un ASTEROID URIAS? CrimeTime Live Show pe www.crimetime.ro

Link: PrimeTime

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 2 Session 4

2011-05-10T08:53:00.027-04:00

Notes from Day 2 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 2 (Tuesday 10 May 2011) Session 4
Impact Consequences and Education

- Longo, G.
"Consequences of the Tunguska Impact and their Interpretation"

more than 100 theories of Tunguska event
many expeditions, 1991 Italian expedition to collect wood samples
new map obtained of 1908 treefall

from final traj. azimuths: single body trajectory or multiple bolide formed by two bodies
New hypothesis: Tunguska bolide underwent fragmentation or was a double body (perfers double body)

example crater to look at Carancas Crater

Lake Cheko: something perhaps under bottom of lake (reflection) (historical evidence refers to lake Cheko but not lake Cheko)
Several surviving trees have in 1908 an inclination toward the lake

Before 1908 think there was a forest before at the current lake location

Would like to drill to bottom of Lake Cheko - do not have the money to drill (but have plan), hopefully in the next decade can drill

http://www-th.bo.infn.it/tunguska

Q: Good to scrape enough particles (take logs apart), if get enough cromium could do isotopic analysis - could prove extraterrestrial nature

A: Have nanograms of particles in tree resin: possible consequence of body but cannot confirm (need to drill to bottom of Lake Cheko)

- Martin Mueller
"Creating Awareness" of the Impact Hazard
Univ. of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt
geographer

meteorite impact and their influence on human society are part of geography curriculum
interviews with experts and surveys of youth in Germany

Results:
the interest in meteorite impacts is above the expected average
both boys and girls are equally interested (not expected since boys more interested in natural disasters)
the interest is much higher in the 5th grade than in the 11th grade
for students, the issue of meteorites impacting today and consequences of a large impact are of highest interest (than pure natural science)

the more complex the concepts are they then are more in the way scientists think (perhaps specific to Germany)
students gather their knowledge from school and TV/movies
students do no know "nuclear winter"
students unaware of asteroid/comets
students do not know a single crater by name
most students are unaware of the geological timescale (missing a deep time framework)
two fundamentally different concepts could be identified" "hot stone in Earth orbit"

Have developed a website called CRATER with online calculator

central aim of future educational activities, covered best in geography classes

- Gritsevich, M.
"New Classification Scale for Impact Consequences"
MSU, University of Helsiknki (Russian Federation)

more reliable scale
non-dimensional parameters for asteroid entry

alpha: aerobraking efficiency
beta: fraction of KE to effective destructive enthalpy
u = meteorite rotation

- Mark Boslough
Airburst Warning and Response

looking at modeling airburst less as a point source, effects on ground greater than as point burst, policy implications of where community should go

LAA (low altitude airburst), talking referring to Harris event/mag chart and how difficult to visualize, reason airburst has gained interest is that larger objects have been mostly found

Two types of airbursts (Tunguska free fall and Libyan Desert glass)
nuclear airburst is a bubble, but asteroid energy is carried downward
Type 1 Tunguska airburst: fireball in sky, blast wave hitting ground
Type 2: fireball all the way to the ground

Kind Tut's scarab dung beetle - carved out of Libyan desert glass (referring to Anders Sandberg reference to searching for academic terms)

1908 Tunguska airburst 5 megatons (also trees potentially unhealthy so lower wind speeds could caused damage)

uncertainty quantification required

IPCC likelihood Scale - refer back to this for impact threat
politically relevant time scale is a decade (think in decade times of scales)
not paying attention to public concerns
probability of biggest impact in a decade - number of people - total number
integrates to 1363 (1409) deaths/year
current assessed threat = 126 (152) deaths/year
Future (after next survey) = 5 (17) deaths/year
point (non-point) values

we are going to be so successful that we will put ourselves out of business (for the next hundred years) - good news for humanity and bad news for this community

relative threat from airburst is increasing
100 Mt will dominate threat after current survey
mitigation should focus on small (~100m) NEOs

probability of an airburst in the next decade is about 1% (1 in a 1000 event) - Tunguska like
Probability that asteroid >140 m will be discovered in the next decade is on a collision course in the next century is about 0.1%
we are ~10 times more likely to save lives by reducing imminent impactors in the next survey

Evac plan needs to include uncertainty in size

NRC report: death lunge recommendation: next dangerous event is an airburst from <50m object, not a crater forming event

Proposed Bucharest style Airburst scale from 1 to 5

Research and Entertainment: TC3

Who would be willing to fund to witness the next TC3.

- G. Gisler, "Calculation of Impact of a Small Asteroid on a Continental Shelf"

should not call asteroid tsunami's tsunamis
what is the smallest size asteroid we need to defense against (200 m asteroid)
in Granada advocated: that is Apophis was targeting middle of Pacific because let it fall, well instrument with assets, to understand effects

of the ~200 recognized impact craters worldwide, very few are in the ocean (most on shelf)
tsunami deposits would be a sign of deep water impact
diameter of asteroid has to be 1/5 of depth of water

doing a continental shelf impact simulation, 200 m asteroid into a 100 m + 100 m sediment layers, 526 MT, used sage code with 1.5 m resolution using 200K of CPUs for 165 seconds of physical time

sediment-laden storm surge washes ashore with sand-blasting winds

Atmospheric effects from cont shelf are worse than impact tsunami, damage by blast wave and hot, fast winds
sediment laden surge is similar to powerful tropical storm
sediment on the shelf i lofted and then propelled by winds

propagation distance: 200 m impact (do not want to be 100km-200 km distance)

hydrocarbon finds craters on shelf (propitiatory data): lots more impacts on shelf

shelves are ideal for collapse and get most of tsunami like events

- Dragos Isvornau
"Dynamics of Tsunamis Generated by Asteroid Impact in the Black Sea"

- Verant, J.L
The protective role of Earth's atmosphere against the threat of asteroids"

SGAC Public NEO Event prior to the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference

2011-05-10T05:28:00.005-04:00

The SGAC held a public event on NEOs prior to the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference.

Link: Video

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 2 Session 3

2011-05-10T03:46:00.004-04:00

Notes from Day 2 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 2 (Tuesday 10 May 2011) Session 3
Potentially Hazardous Objects: Recent Progress

- P. Michel
Cote d'Azur Observatory
Physical Properties of NEOs that inform mitigation

For all mitigation concepts needs size/mass, rotational properties, and shape

For kinetic impactor and nuclear concepts:
needs surface and subsurface properties and internal structure if disruption is the goal

Most NEOs are rubble piles
very small asteroids have fast spin
material properties may involve microporosity

- Amy Mainzer
NEOWISE: A new infrared views of the NEOs and the Solar System
NEOWISE PI at JPL

Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE), astrophysics mission
40 cm in diameter, solid hydrogen cryostat
expected life of 10 months, surveyed entire sky two times
4 imaging channels
525 km LEO circular orbit
lots of coverage of data over poles
2009 Dec 14 launch Delta II
thermal infrared for asteroids gives physical parameters
get diameters quite accurately and albedos
NEOWISE funded by NASA Planetary Science, archive and store exposures to public, created an archive of individual objects and tool for accessing moving objects
WISE moving Object Pipeline (WMOPS) derived from PS MOPS
Survey began in Jan 14 and started delivering Tracklets in March to MPC
Needed to see objects five times to say it was detected

157K objects observed, 34K objects
585 NEOS observed, 135 discoveries (including 17 PHAs)
1500 Trojans, 123 comets observed, 20 discovered , 20 centuars and SDOs
NEOWISE will not meet congressional mandate
NEO orbits for ~2 weeks before uncertainty becomes large for follow-up
Amateurs helped in follow up
NEO Science: get orbital distribution
carrying out thermal model of objects
used NEATM model
diameter can be determined to +/- 10%, albedo to +/- 20%
Survey biases need to be understood
run items through simulated surveys to determine size and albedo of NEOs

First data release: 14 April 2011 (57% of WISE data first pass) final data release: March 2012
NEOWISE is proof of concept for larger NEO survey, NEOCam

Near Earth Object Camera (real asteroid mission)
Discovery Mission Proposal in 2006/2010
Study NES and asses risk
detect and characterize 2/3 of all PHOs < 140 m in 4 yearsNEOCam selected for 2011 Discovery selection for technology developmentQ: hope for additional discoveries in dataA: yes, could potentially find new objects after data analysis, more things in database coupled with follow-upexcess of high inclination NEOs - WISE could potentially answer question on high inclination NEOs- Lance BennerRadar Tracking and Near Earth Object CharacteristicsJPL, uses data to provide shape models and physical models, rotation characteristicscumulative presentation from multiple people, including Steve Ostro (worked with him from 13 years)radar can spatially resolve objects 4 meter resolution, exceeds any ground or space-base optical telescope, estimate 3D shapes, proxy for spacecraft missions, identify binary and ternary objects (2/3 of such objects identified by radar)- can estimate mass and bulk density, can back out albedo, improve orbits, very precise and can shrink drastically for new NEOs, 1E8 doppler precision, radar ranging can improve orbits can reduce uncertainties by Arecibo: 305m (within 20 deg, can see 1/3 of sky, 1 MW of power, can see objects double of Goldstone, 7.5 meter/pixel), Goldstone: 70m (2nd most sensitive radar, fully steerable, sees 80% of sky, 4 meter/pixel), higher complimentaryStatus of Arecibo: NASA funding of $2M annually started in 2010, observatory will stay open, NEO radar program is expanding significantly, radar offline for several months due to equipment problems (equipment problems, results of insufficient maintenance perhaps, missed many targets), at least through June or longer (transmitter system got wet because of seal), new generators: resume transmitting 900 kW at regular basis (5-6 years ago, get 700 Kw, one year ago got 100 kW), higher science return, requesting three times as many asteroid targets as three years ago, two new klystrons,Goldstone: new 4 meter chirp resolution, 5x finer than previous resolution of 18.75 meter resolution (over one year ago) - also 7.5/15/30 m resolutionsOffline from March - Nov 2010 for scheduled maintenance, some people doing repairs caused damage, pointing problems since Dec. 2010, return to regular service in June 2011, tracking problem last week, work is underway to increase priority of radar272 NEos observed (20-30 detected annual, ~5% of what could be done), have observed 2 meter object (smallest object seen)EPOXI Mission target flyby of rComet Hartley 2, also Hayabusa mission support2010 JL33 (2 km object), Dec. 12 observation from GoldstoneHave made shapes for 30 objects from 272 NEOs observedIf have 3D shape then can do other thingsHave observed Yarkovsky effect by radar ranging of GolevkaYORP effect detected for multiple objectsNew 3.75 meter resolution (2010 AL30, diameter of 30m), spatially resolve tiny NEAs, up to 5x radar astrometry, finer shape and surface detail- Emel'yanenkoInstitute of Astronomy, RAS (russian Federation)Orbital Distribution of NEOsFeb. 18, 2011: 7665 NEOs (q<1.3 AU)- A. Milani1999 RQ36 Impact Risk Monitoring the Long Term Yarkovsky EffectUniv. of Pisa Have ebeen doing routine work for 12 years for assessing NEO impact monitoringGoal was to obtain follow up observations.May 5, 2011: 310 risk files (asteroids with known impacts in 80-100 years), 317 in NEODyS-1, 369 in JPl SENTRY, 359 in SENTRY version 2why different and why such a long list?Risk File: list of potential risks and impact probability over time2010 RF12: next TC3 type object in 2095 (small)What is the impact probability that is appropriate to give to the decision makers. If want to get to from 10-7 to 10-9 in terms of impact probability calculation - need $750K of extra computers, practical impact of impact probability confidence level91 NEAs with H<25, 198 H >25 have been lost
What is the meaning of lost NEAs with VIs?
two largest asteroids 2010 AR85 and 2010AU118 are extinction level events that WISE found but no one else has found them
Follow-up system does not work (list remains polluted) with dangerous asteroids we cannot remove, these discoveries of VIs that are lost has not contributed to reducing risk
system is not working because of this

Q (Alan Harris): Vi created to make where one has to look for impact
A: Problem is that there are many orbits one as to look at (too many) 5000 VIs, requires significant "negative" surveys

- Steve Chesley
Asteroid Impact Hazard Assessment Over Long Time Intervals
new title: Asteroid Impact Hazard Assessment and Yarkovsky Effect
JPL

developed SENTRY system
Italian, California, Hawaiian NEO "Mafias"

two case studies: Apophis and 101955 (1999RQ36)
Apophis has stiff integration in 2029 (scatters) and poor Yarkovsky knowledge - short term prediction issues
RQ36 smoother dynamics - long term prediction case study

Apophis impact probability updated: improved data treatment, astrometry updates

Apophis update: new keyhole appears for 2068
2036 keyhole is 7 sigma away
new Keyhole in 2068 2m across

Yarkovsky target plane uncertainties: 190km from astrometry and 500 km from Yarkovsky, thus now it is important

don't know parameters for Apophis Yarkovsky (conductivity, density, diameter, obliquity)
put distribution on above four parameters - get semi-major axis drift rate distribution - add that into trajectory, Yarkovsky skews towards keyhole
putting uncertainties on probabilities
2036 potential impact is not ruled out (more than 3 sigma away, IP = 4X10-6 impact probability)
reasonable to expect 2036 impact to be ruled out soon, 2068 is likely o persist longer, recent data in March 2011 on Apophis but does not change data - such a good orbit so new information has not changed situation

1999 RQ36

target of OSIRIS ReX mission (0.5 km)not hazardous now but 150 years from now potential for impact, have radar and other data

RQ36 has 1 in 1800 impact probability in year 2182, really? Arecibo observations should reduce uncertainty in semi-major axis drift rate, fractal structure that makes it difficult to rule out possibilities of impact, see more into the fractal structure as more observations,

- Peter Veres
The Search for Earth Impacting Asteroids by Pan-STARRS
Comenius University (Slovenia) - post doc at Hawaii in future

Feb. 28, 2010 Slovakia
May 4, 2011, meteorite fall in Poland
How efficient would PS1 be for finding an impactor

Survey simulation for Pan-STARRS from 2011-2013
pop of 130K impactors in simulation
after 4 years of observation 10% chance of finding 2008 TC2 analogue in 4 years, large impactors identified within 2 years

ATLAS telescope (2 telescopes, 100 km distance from each, each has 4 scopes, to see parallex, potential to find objects that are close and small, might cover entire sky)

- Paul Chodas
Keyholes as Providers of Deflection Leverage
phrased "keyholes"

How pre-impact close approaches impact deflection strategy

Apophis 2029 close approach, how typical is keyhole scenarios

keyhole started in 1999, B. Marsden proposed future years
how far does a keyhole go?
Apophis close approach scenario is very rare, has very high leverage for close approach
dynamics of close approach when thinking about mitigation missions

Jabbas: big fat area in the pre-impact b-plane at which the close approach produces a compression on the Line of Variations, 15 to 60 lunar distances, jabba widths are less than 1 lunar distance but they can be as wide as several million km

25% of impactors have keyholes reducing deflection within 25 years of impact: interesting

fly-by anomaly not modeled for asteroids (have seen for S/C)
folding does not change impact probability per se but moves into future
not really a fractal, MOIDS get off the Earth - finite expression of fractal, partial view of infinite view, limited view of chaos

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 1 Session 2

2011-05-09T07:42:00.043-04:00

Notes from Day 1 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 1 (Monday 09 May 2011) Session 2

- Alan W. Harris
"Update of Estimated NEO Population and Current Survey Completion"

working at small company (MoreData!) and consultant to NASA/JPL NEO program office
estimate population by re-detection ratio (how many you find versus that you have already found), bias correction from computer surveys, and extrapolation to smaller size
results are getting boring since numbers not changing too much, estimate of population through July 2010
re-detection ratio from Mag 23 to Mag 16 on chart of size and number (compare fraction of new discoveries versus total), "r" = re-detection ratio will always be a higher number (getting bias correction is needed), re-detection limits are large end since found many of them (not good are factional probability for low probability numbers), for small objects % of re-detection is very low, go to computer sim of a survey, make a sample survey and look at various size ranges and compare with actual re-detection ratio,

LSST gets 1 week warning (2008 TC3 type object), current surveys give 50-50 chance for those things in a few days prior to impact

Q: Bias in MPC, scoring algorithm from MPC - some bias?
A: Surveys have to be tuned to be quick, would not rely on MPC confirmation page to do that if looking for the short term impact, on calculating existing population using MPC data - things off confirmation page but keep information

- Don Yeomans and Alan Chamberlin
"Comparing the Earth Impact Flux From Comets and Near-Earth Asteroids"
NASA JPL

Define Long Period Comets (LPCs) wild cards of impacting population, period > 200 years, not active until inside Jupiter, takes only 9 months from Jupiter to Earth's orbit, could strike at 51 km/s, 3x that of typical NEO, impact energy is about 9 times that of similar NEA, comet densities are 0.6 g/cm^3 (given this, energy of LPC is only 2x of NEAs)
Compact impact flux study in 1984: rate of comet finding during telescope era was constant (even with increasing technology), average interval between collision is ~43 M years

Also looked at direct date from JPL NEO database, close approaches of comets/asteroids = 0.1%

For current surveys NEAS are important, once the next generation survey is complete, then perhaps comets are next

Largest PHA is Toutatis (5km)

- Ed Beshore
Univ. of Arizona
The Catalina Sky Survey, Past, Present, and Future
PI of Catalina Sky Survey
started in 2002 in NEO business, took over as PI for Catalina

started as an undergrad research project with Tim Spahr, Steve Larson, Carl Hergenrother, John Brownlww, used films in 1994 at start, 3 telescopes:

Mt. Bigelow, AZ (0.7 m Schmidt), routinely used for 24 nights around new moon, around 20th magnitude as 1.2 sigma, 2.5 pixels, in the survey business, coverage is everything, telescope has fallen into disuse,

Mt. Lemmon (1.5 m) reflector, around 22th magnitude, fell into disuse, and took over,
Siding Spring, AUS (0.5 m Uppsala Schmidt), around 19.5 magnitude,
Use identical cameras for all telescopes, 14 second downloads, CyroTger cooling, do not use filters

Base survey on pre-defined fields, 4 images 10 minutes apart, one observer will looks at 6k 3observations per night,
Continuous refinement pays off in development

Many false detections are stars in background, limiting mag. is approx. ~19.5.
Faster focusing, auto refocusing, 30 minutes spent calibrating focus using automation
Dedicated Follow up telescope, on some evenings spent a lot of time on follow-up,

Moving to next generation sensors: 10.5x10.5K CCD, increases coverage by 2.4x
Small binocular Telescope (MMT 6x1.8 meter mirrors - available in dry storage)

3 Small binocular telescopes, 23.3 Mag (3 units) could be largest dedicated to NEO search, 26 months total cost of $30M for all three systems

- Richard Wainscoat
Univ. of Hawaii
"The Pan-STARRS search for NEAs: present status and future plans"
1.8 m diameter, gradual improving in efficiency, discovered 80 NEas, long term is to
1.4 B pixels (giga pixel camera), 3 GB per image, one image per 30 seconds, 3 TB per night,
operated by a consortium, many aspects of astronomy, nearly all observations are suitable for NEO detection
Camera has 60 CCDs, 56% is survey of visible sky, 5% spent on NEO sessions dedicated
Stellar Transit Survey starting this month looking at adjacent fields,
Data processing and NEO candidate review, false detections are problem, humans screen
Do not follow up on NEO candidates
Losing quite a few NEOs, latency in image processing contributes
Fast moving objects are being lost
Jan 30 used whole night for NEO search, found 19 NEos and 1 PHA, 3 fast movers were lost
3K-6K asteroids submitting per night to MPC
A NEO discovery anticipated of 40 NEOs per month
Bad weather in Hawaii (La Nina weather patterns) causing issues
Future: reprocessing of old images using new processing to start, detection of fast moving NEOs from aligned trails in pairs of observations
Can produce image of static sky, subtract static sky to achieve 0.4 mag. gain, more fainters NEOS to be detected, Pan-STARRS 2 would have better camera - most of funding is there, PS 4 on Mauna Kea. MK is better sight than Haleakala.

- Jones, R.L.
"NEO Detection with LSST"
Univ. of Washington

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) multiple science drivers
big primary mirror (8.4 m telescope), 9.6 deg FOV, 3.2 Gpix camera
located in Chile
Ranked #1 groudn based large project,
Why is LSST good for NEOs? short exposure (15 seconds), rapid cadence (2 sets of 2x15 images per night with colors), smallest object 0.5 AU could detect 10 m object
processing requirements link detections into tracklets, link tracklets into tracks, filter tracks by fitting orbits

PHA completeness: assume H=22 at D=140m
in 10 years, normal cadence, LSST is 80% complete at 140 m
in 12 years, NEO optimized, LSST reached 90% complete at 140 m

For 45 m objects, LSST's warning time would be between 1-3 months

Not a completed telescope, in design and development phase, federal construction funding from NSF/DoE, 2014, first light in late 2017, first engineering light in 2018, full science ops in late 2019, Mountaintop construction started, processing pipelines under construction, federal construction from 2013-2019.

Q: Colors for small objects which are fast rotators may not be able to occur
A: Colors perhaps not from most objects, but perhaps from some objects

Filter strategy for LSST not settled in terms of changing filters between observations, since filters are large

- Daniel Hestroffer
Gaia Astrometry of NEOs

Gaia's basic aim is 3D census of Galaxy, solar system observation
ESA Cornerstone Mission, launch in 2013, 5 year life, scanning low telescope, ES L2 point
scanning - no pointing, sky coverage in 6 months

- Alan Hildebrand
"NEOSSAT"
Univ. of Calagary

Dual-use missions funded by CSA and Dept. of National Defense
US-based team members supported by

Micro satellite Systems Canada, formerly Dynacon (currently in Phase D)
launch late in 2011 although PSLV schedule may put in 2012
based on MOST spacecraft

50/50 in time in terms of sat tracking and NEO
initially less than $10M, about $15M now with launch slips
Search for NEOs and ATENs, IEOs (interior Earth Orbit)
Every 2 days will discover NEO

- Paul Abell
"Space-Based BEO Survey Telescope in Support of Human Exploration"
NASA JSC

Involved in Hayabusa mission recovery
Human to NEOs is one of the policies of the Obama administration
official policy on June 28, 2010 (Civil Space Guideline #1)
first mission by 2025

NEO Survey telescope suggested by human exploration, science, and planetary defense
Space-based survey telescope is relevant to 2011 Strategic Plan
Asset would be crucial to human exploration
Affordable missions, viable and budget constrained
100 MT launch HLL vehicles, dual launch architecture (cryogenic propulsion stage + CTV + Deep Space Vehicle)
re-entry speed <=11.8 km/s<=180 day round trip (radiation issue)2025-2030 missionsNEOs should be of reasonable size for meaningful human exploration (>30m), large diameters are preferred
Within the current database only 1 known NEO >30m in size suitable for 2025-2030 timeframe (2000 SG344, speculation that it is a rocky body)
Importance of viewing geometry: asteroids close encounter with Earth (<0.1 AU) enables both ground and human exploration capability (accessible and observable)
Looked at NEOs with Earth like orbits, took 20 NEOs with these characteristics, 18/20 NEOS have low DeltaV with short duration missions, for each NEO two types of architecture (min DeltaV and balanced)
Looking at short mission and low DeltaV only one (1) that is larger than 30 m
Where and When to look (2015-2020)
A platform in space is needed to fins

Space-Based telescope, launch ready in 4-5 years, SEL1, trailing Venus, SEL2

NEOCamJPL selected for Discovery Call

Program timeline, 2015-2017 NEO Space Survey,
2019-2022 (robotic precursors)
2022-2025 (human mission planning)
2025 launch mission

Q: are robotic precursor needed, what is the latest thinking
A: First time we send people we send precursor (coming from human safety/EVA people), in-site mission informs safety and prox ops and planetary defense topics, precursor can stay there as ob post and data relay

Rusty: in the process, look at increased flexibility if there is a precursor, opens up space of targets

A: Think there are targets but need a space-based system to get better idea of environment

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: Day 1 Session 1

2011-05-09T03:08:00.107-04:00

Notes from Day 1 of 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference. Follow twitter feed for more information:

Day 1 (Monday 09 May 2011) Session 1

- Misc introductory remarks by various Romanian dignitaries, including political and scientific representatives

- IAA representative

IAA had Planetary Defense report by Ivan Bekey, keeps referring to asteroids as "rocks", hope to have one more conference in 2 years time

- Dr. Bill Ailor (Aerospace Corporation)

Reflects that this is the most prestigious conference venue for these series of conferences.

- Dr. Richard Tremayne Smith

Previous conferences have been focused on threat, introducing Dr. Anders Sandberg

- Dr. Anders Sandberg

Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School
Oxford University

focuses on human enhancement, also interest in global risks
trying to understand how human species will survive
philosophers good at dealing with new questions and applicable to planetary defense/new global threats
genetic bottlenecks in humanity's history
75K years ago natural disaster reduced human species to around 1000 persons
Black Plague killed more people over time than than alive at start
emergent properties of the internet potential causing problems
past predictions of disasters have been been off by wide variety
problem with risk cognition
risk has an element of outrage in the public's perception
also overestimates probability of various risks
earth impactors relative to other risks are better than other risks
in principal, global coordination may not be required for planetary defense (better but not necessary)
thinking about threat by super-intelligent machines: no research community
use the planetary defense community as an example of how to deal with other threats
scientific search terms: "dung beetle" much more academic references than "human extinction"
weird priorities
reproducible cognitive biases distorting research
availability bias: if one can easily visualize threat than becomes more important
leads to good "story bias" - people expect proper solution will be as dramatic as how impactful story is, people want exciting methods
collective memory counteracts availability bias
"silliness" bias - 10-20 years there was much more of silliness category
"Gambler's" fallacy - if there is an impact than threat goes down
Quantification bias - numbers imply more importance just because of numerical values
If having a heart attack better if only one person than 20 people around, people waiting for others to act
having planetary defense have to act as doctors and break "bystander" effect
"Scope Neglect" willingness to pay goes down as problem becomes larger
"Maybe humanity does not deserve to survive" - as problem becomes larger people become more philosophical
Planetary Defense - under-supplied public good (transgenerational), some other government might do it, costs are visisble but prevention is invisible
Long timescale (paradox of progress, discounting, rational to wait perhaps as world gets more capable, if you believe in exponential increase in technology then perhaps would need to wait, but irrational delays may be an issue
Need a "good enough" solution perhaps
Public is getting globalized, need to get organizations against cognitive biases, planetary defense could be a useful symbol,
Inefficient to build more hospitals: symbol of hope
Planetary defense: collective activity (moral and rational), we care about future generations and that is why we are here

----- Session 1: History and Current Status

- Dave Morrison
"The Asteroid Impact Hazard: Historical Overview"
NASA Lunar Science Institute (NASA Ames)

Assessing the hazard does not mitigate but essential science
Mitigating the hazard - decision makers perspective changed over time, decision makers want to identify and survey objects, SpaceGaurd and others is directed a this point - not a scientific survey per se
Responding to public concern: focusing previously on large global risks but should be worrying about next small one, public and decision makers are pushing into this perspective, directs towards last minute survey for such small impactors

Long term history was protecting earth against comets, because comets thought to be bigger and less information about asteroids, Comets only 1% of risk, look at mitigation first at US and then UK task force in 2000

1949: Raplh Baldwin in 1969 (The Face of the Moon)
1967: Project Icarus (MIT study)
1980: Alvarez KT Mass Extinction

1991: US Congress statement (assess hazard and look at technologies)
1992 workshops including NEO interception workshop (Ed Teller looking at nuclear options)

get multi-kiloton explosion in upper atmosphere

Developing a community to find people interested over the 1990s in planetary defense community and bridge gap of astronomers and DoE community working on mitigation, key meeting in 1993 in Erice, Sicily (40 invitees) to talk to each other and get common interest
1993 meeting that resulted in 1994 book (Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids)
Spaceguard Survey (1998-present);
any survey will find many more objects smaller than its target population (finds whatever is there)
LINEAR and Catalina have accounted for majority of discoveries
Subtleties from orbits, follow-up of systems needed, difficult time with 1997 XF11 (had error as large as miss distance), made a press release, press coverage, but follow up analysis showed no major impact, compromise with overcome giggle factor and not issuing false alarms, keyholes was an important concept
Developed the Torino and Palermo scale, NEO Eros mission, 2002 Belton mitigation missions
NASA 2003 NASA Science Def. Team

Issues in planetary defense:
Should we develop technology now or wait or should be wait until threat
Should be an international effort
Are nuclear options acceptable, difficult to test
How much should be spend
Who can be trusted with this responsibility
How can we ensure that asteroid defense systems are not misused

Hazard before and after SpaceGuard that hazards are still large objects, sig. risk from objects 200-300 m in diameters.

- Lindley Johnson
Program Executive, NASA NEO Program Status and Plans
coining "Planetary Defense"
counted about 12 different presentations at conference that relate to NASA's NEO program, directly funded by NASA
Since 2009 planetary defense conference
Jan. 2010: US NRC had report
April 2010: New NASA human space flight, human NEO mission by 2025
June 2010: US National Space Policy addressed NEO threat
Apr.-Sept. 2010: NASA Ad. Council Planetary Defense Task Force
Oct. 2010: US OSTP Letter to Congress
FY11/12 NASA Budget Requests: NEEO Program increase to $20.4 M

NASA NEO Search program
LINEAR still operational, Catalina Sky Survey, Pan-STARRS-1, and over the last year NASA WISE
8-10 per month finding large NEOs in heyday, now finding about 1 per month (Large NEOs)
as of 5/1/11 discovered 87-97% of large NEOs, have founded 914 Large NEOs (included 89 Near Earth Comets), 7117 smaller objects found (NEO), about 1000 1 km objects, about 20K at 140 m, about 250K at 50 m

NRC report: cannot meet goal to discover 90% of NEOs 140m or greater by 2020 (cost or performance focused, different options), continue planetary radars, test of kinetic impactor

NEO working group established by UN COPUOS (annual meeting)
Space Situational Awareness Working Group with EU and ESA.

NASA NEO Observaiton Program
90% of objects within 1.3 AU of sun and 140 m in size or larger
Viable targets for future exploration will be found
Continue to fund existing assets and then bring on existing assets

NASA's NEO program $16M increase will:
Extend WISE data
Enable NEO use from USAF Pan-STARRS project
Planetary radar (Arecibo, Goldstone)
Investigate use of ground and space concepts for tracking and characterizing PHOs down to 140m and below
Investigate characterization parameters of NEOs for mitigation studies

Next Gen Survey (still preliminary):
Pan-STARRS from 2 to 4, LSST, SST (DARPA funded telescope at White Sands, 3.6 m primary mirror, ready next Feb., use background images for NEOs), Space-Based Survey Telescope
Space-bases NEOStar concept (as infrared space-based observatory)
Funding for Arecibo through 2011 by NASA until NSF decides how to proceed

2005 YU55 (400 m NEO): good opportunity to do characterization campaign, passes well above the plane of EM system

- Gerhard Drolshagen by ESA (given by Detlef Koshny)
ESA's Space Situational Awareness

Marco Polo-R (asteroid sample return study, 1 out of 4 studies, 2020 launch: Detlef study scientist)

European SSA programme
Surveillance and tracking, space weather, and NEOs
currently in preparatory phase (2009-2011/12) approved (50M Euros for all three programs combined during 2009-2012)
Nominal phase (slices of 4 years over 7 years), preparing for full program to be approved at the end of 2012
EC got interested in topic (younger Alan Harris won proposal)
SSA program: network of sensors, data centers, common data policy, NEO: ESRIN/Italy (NEO data center), in SRR program for ESA-SSA
in the process of setting up a precursor service: based on existing assets (preparation for real program) - bottom up approach
NEOs portion of SSA out of 50M Euros (too complex to state what portion of 50M Euros is NEO-related)
Study by Telespazio/Pisa/INAF Rome produced functional breakdown of future European NEO segment and produced a simulator for testing NEODyd

Basic concept of SSA-NEO Segement (setting up more telescopes, data center, and communication flows to MPC and JPL and other users), existing services get more money

What is SSA-NEO up to?
Contracts for computers, web interaces, governance, telescope analysis/design (finished in 2010: design for optical telescope with 1m effective aperture, 45 square deg FOV, "Fly-Eye Telescope")
Working hard to keep NEO-SSA public (separating telescopes for other SSA needs and NEOs)
regular observations at ESA's Optical Ground Station
Precursor service in ESRIN stated in 01 MArch 2011, operations in Summer 2011
Starting impact effects and deflection strategies, will star this year, producing a snap-shot of knowledge
Study for different orbit propagation algorithms, develop and build a visible-IR camera
building a demo system for space debris and NEO (2 telescopes, one in New Norica and another in AUS)
Update NEO population model (still needs approval)

Conclusion:
Set up a precursor service involving key players in Europe
Federate existing assets
After 2013 (full program):
build up a wide survey to detect all objects larger than Tunguska-size objects 3 weeks before their close approach (several 1m 45 deg FOV telescopes)
Set up international program

Q. by Dave Morrison: concerned about specificity on ESA-SSA, what is new?
A: nothing new, but continue what is there but with proper funding (have a few hundred K Euro for proposal), new thing is wide survey that will complement deep survey

Q. by Rusty: relationship between data center and MPC, do you see duplication? Started already to look into possibilities in supporting MPC, do not have funding in current budget, too early to say in the future what happens (goal is not duplicate MPC, goal could be redundancy or additional tasks, do not plan Euro MPC)

- Richard Tremayne Smith
UN COPUOS Action Team Activities

Rationale for UN Involvement
UNISPACE III developed "Action Team" concept to work more directly on issues, UN Action Team 14 on NEOs established and elevated to WG status in 2007 within COPUOS S&T, approved work plan until at least 2012

Past models: IADC (Inter0agency Debris Comm.) - certain parties tried to get that body into looking into NEOs (but not successful), UN developed own space debris guidelines, used ASE panel in similar manner to accelerate process of NEO measures

ASE recommendations: Document no evolving within the UN system with ownership of delegations (through AT 14 report at UN COPUOS)

CRP reflects three elements of ASE Report (IAWN, MPOG - IADC analogue, MAOG - role for UN body)
Who has role for MAOG: UN OOSA, ISDR, WMO (7x24 network, for $1M extra could do NEO work) potentially, UN Sec. Council, Another UN body?, non UN bodies?

- Alan Harris (The European)
DLR
"A Global Approach to NEO Impact Threat Mitigation"

An EC funded program on NEOs,
Another organization that is planning to make money available, this is the EU through its EC and its FP7 research program, given initially a poster slot, look as this will be funded, more significant, NEOShield Proposal - submitted in response to FP7 research proposals (26 Nob. 2010, 13 members), topped one of 6 proposals, 5.5 M Euro (Funds provided by EU: 4.0 M Euro), anticipated kick-off of Nov./Dec. 2011 (duration 3.5 years), will investigation: gravity tractor, kinetic impactors, and blast deflection

1. Science: including lab experiments, mitigation precursor recon, using asteroid surface analog materials, numerical simulations,
2. Mitigation Demo Mission: identify suitable mission targets, design a missions
3. Global response campaign roadmap

international team including Astrium, Deimos Space, Surrey, D. Morrison
Univ. of Surrey will work with D. Morrison on gravity tractors

Follow Twitter Feed for Latest Updates on 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference

2011-05-09T02:24:00.000-04:00

I shall attempt to tweet from the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference.

Twitter Feed: ac_charania

An interesting minor link between The Prisoner TV series and Planetary Defense

2011-05-01T19:30:00.003-04:00

How The Prisoner TV series and planetary defense are related.

According to this video, Donald Tosh (who was a script editor for Doctor Who), met Prisoner script editor George Markstein. Those discussions led to a script proposal by Tosh in which No. 6 (The Prisoner) meets French aviator Antoine de Saint-Exupéry' in the Village (a prisoner himself). De Saint-Exupéry' is the author of The Little Prince, who lives on an asteroid called B-612. The B-612 Foundation is a non-profit foundation organized to work for planetary defense issues.

The following video is Tosh talking about his script discussions with Markstein.

Link: YouTube Video ("THE PRISONER. Unused script.")

AsteroidAware project and video

2011-05-01T17:48:00.000-04:00

AsteroidAware seems to have posted a YouTube Video. Here is more information on this project from their website:

The 2007 Planetary Defense Conference recommends “to provide or enhance Internet sites to show how threats evolve and to illustrate possible action scenarios”. Thereby, establishment of informational and communicational AsteroidAware web-site with the exact, authentic data about the past and the present of Earth's impact events will assist in achievement of positive results and progress in different directions on political, international, social and scientific levels. In the long perspective it can become a central resource of the future global organization of planetary defense that will be responsible for the worldwide warnings and protection actions to advance the international cooperation. Information, social and knowledge-based environments of the web-source should educate governmental officials and the public on the nature of the NEO threats and expectations on NEO detections and warnings. The direct communication between the scientists and policy makers through the AsteroidAware web-site network should increase public awareness and trust. That will also be helpful for international scientific organizations in exchange of research data and forthcoming events. Finally it's necessary to note that after 20-30 years when the probable threat can overtake the planet, the Internet possibly will be one of the main information resources in the world.

For more information on Asteroid Aware contact (from their website):

Denis A. Usikov
The Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IE RAS),
M.V. Lomonosov MSU Faculty of World Politics Alumni Association
+7 (910) 430 71 21
usikov.denis@gmail.com
www.asteroidaware.info

Link: Asteroid Awareness website

Link: YouTube Video ("Asteroid Awareness")

B612 Foundation Asteroid Deflection Visualizations

2011-05-01T17:41:00.000-04:00

Link: YouTube Video ("B612 Foundation Asteroid Deflection Visualization: Kinetic Impactor Impact")

Link: YouTube Video ("B612 Foundation Asteroid Deflection Visualization: Gravity Tractor Close-up")

Link: YouTube Video ("B612 Foundation Asteroid Deflection Visualization: Orbit Determination Phase")

Link: YouTube Video ("B612 Foundation Asteroid Deflection Visualization: Gravity Tractor Phase")

Link: YouTube Video ("B612 Foundation Asteroid Deflection Visualization: Earth miss after 10 years")

Link: YouTube Video ("B612 Foundation Asteroid Deflection Visualization: Asteroid Close-up")

YouTube Video:"Rusty Schweickart - Deflecting an Asteroid" (17 November 2010)

2011-05-01T17:40:00.000-04:00

Link: YouTube Video ("Rusty Schweickart - Deflecting an Asteroid")

YouTube Video:"Rusty Schweickart, The Asteroid Threat Over the Next 100,000 Years"

2011-05-01T17:29:00.002-04:00

Link: YouTube Video ("Rusty Schweickart, The Asteroid Threat Over the Next 100,000 Years, SALT tak")

Radio Interview on Planetary Defense: U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher and Dr. Michael J. Drake

2011-05-01T17:24:00.000-04:00

A recent radio episode on the Frank Morrison show (20 April 2011) on 89.3 FM KPCC entitled “Deep Impact,” but with an unhappy ending: Who will watch for Earth-bound asteroids in an era of budget cuts?". The guests included Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-California’s 46th District, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach; chairman of the Oversight & Investigation Subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee) and Michael J. Drake (director, Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona).

Link: 89.3 FM KPCC Episode: Patt Morrison show for April 20, 2011 [.mp3 of show]

Link: 89.3 FM KPCC Episode: Patt Morrison show for April 20, 2011 (“Deep Impact,” but with an unhappy ending: Who will watch for Earth-bound asteroids in an era of budget cuts)

New Yorker Article: "Vermin of the Sky: Who will keep the planet safe from asteroids?"

2011-05-01T17:17:00.000-04:00

Jaime Hernandez Illustration in The New Yorker.

An article from the New Yorker (from February 2011) on planetary defense.

DEPT. OF COSMIC DEBRIS
"Vermin of the Sky: Who will keep the planet safe from asteroids?"
Tad Friend
FEBRUARY 28, 2011

Link: New Yorker Article

NASA's Lindley Johnson speaking at Gartner's Security & Risk Management Summit (20-23 June 2011)

2011-05-01T17:12:00.000-04:00

NASA's Lindley Johnson speaking to a non-aerospace audiance on planetary defense at the Gartner Security & Risk Management Summit, 20-23 June 2011 at National Harbor, MD USA. Here is the session information:

Preparing for Planetary Defense
Thursday, 23 June 2011
10:20 AM-11:20 AM
Speaker: Col. Lindley Johnson
Session Type: Keynote Session

Preparing for Planetary Defense: What if an asteroid was headed for impact of the Earth? How would we know? Would we want to know? Could anything be done to prevent such a catastrophe? Hollywood disaster movies have provided entertaining depictions of mankind struggling to avoid such devastation, but what’s the real story? Lindley Johnson from NASA’s Planetary Science Division heads the nation’s actual efforts to detect such hazards in sufficient time to potentially take actions to prevent the disaster. Find out how real the threat is and what can be done to mitigate it. This is the ultimate scenario in planetary security and risk management.

Link: Gartner Security and Risk Conference Talk Website

Asteroid (596) Scheila and Analysis of Collision with Another Asteroid

2011-04-30T09:16:00.000-04:00

From the article...

Scientists have captured and studied the collision of two asteroids for only the second time in the history of astronomy. In the May 20 edition of the Astrophysical Journal Letters (currently online), UCLA's David Jewitt and colleagues report on observations from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope of a large asteroid that was hit by a much smaller one.

On Dec. 11, 2010, astronomers noticed that an asteroid known as (596) Scheila had unexpectedly brightened and was sporting short-lived dust plumes. Data from NASA's Swift satellite and Hubble Space Telescope showed that these changes likely occurred after Scheila was struck by a much smaller asteroid, probably in late November or early December. The shape, evolution and content of the plumes enabled the scientists to reconstruct what occurred.

The smaller asteroid crashed into Scheila with the energy of at least a 100 kiloton nuclear bomb. The smallest particles from the collision escaped, and the dust formed plumes. These plumes were barely visible when Hubble observed Scheila two weeks later, and within two months, the plumes were gone completely, along with the evidence that Scheila had suffered a violent collision.

"The Hubble data are most simply explained by the impact, at 11,000 miles per hour, of a previously unknown asteroid about 100 feet in diameter," said Jewitt, the Hubble team leader and a UCLA professor of Earth and space sciences and of physics and astronomy.

PAPER REFERENCES:

COLLISIONAL EXCAVATION OF ASTEROID (596) SCHEILA

D. Bodewits1, M. S. Kelley1, J.-Y. Li1, W. B. Landsman2, S. Besse1 and M. F. A’Hearn1
dennis@astro.umd.edu msk@astro.umd.edu jyli@astro.umd.edu sbesse@astro.umd.edu ma@astro.umd.edu Wayne.B.Landsman@nasa.gov
1 Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
2 NASA GSFC, Adnet Systems, Mailstop 667, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA

The Astrophysical Journal Letters Volume 733 Number 1
D. Bodewits et al. 2011 ApJ 733 L3 doi: 10.1088/2041-8205/733/1/L3

Abstract:
We observed asteroid (596) Scheila and its ejecta cloud using the Swift UV-optical telescope. We obtained photometry of the nucleus and the ejecta, and for the first time measured the asteroid's reflection spectrum between 290 and 500 nm. Our measurements indicate significant reddening at UV wavelengths (13% per 103 Å) and a possible broad, unidentified absorption feature around 380 nm. Our measurements indicate that the outburst has not permanently increased the asteroid's brightness. We did not detect any of the gases that are typically associated with either hypervolatile activity thought responsible for cometary outbursts (CO+, CO2 +), or for any volatiles excavated with the dust (OH, NH, CN, C2, C3). We estimate that 6 × 108 kg of dust was released with a high ejection velocity of 57 m s–1 (assuming 1 μm sized particles). While the asteroid is red in color and the ejecta have the same color as the Sun, we suggest that the dust does not contain any ice. Based on our observations, we conclude that (596) Scheila was most likely impacted by another main belt asteroid less than 100 m in diameter.

HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS OF MAIN-BELT COMET (596) SCHEILA

David Jewitt1,2,3, Harold Weaver4, Max Mutchler5, Stephen Larson6 and Jessica Agarwal7
jewitt@ucla.edu
1 Department of Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, 595 Charles Young Drive East, Box 951567, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567, USA
2 Institute for Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, 3845 Slichter Hall, 603 Charles Young Drive East, Los Angeles, CA 90065-1567, USA
3 Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1547, USA
4 The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, USA
5 Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA
6 Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, 1629 E. University Blvd., Tucson, AZ 85721-0092, USA
7 Institute for Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24/25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

The Astrophysical Journal Letters Volume 733 Number 1
David Jewitt et al. 2011 ApJ 733 L4 doi: 10.1088/2041-8205/733/1/L4

Abstract:
We present Hubble Space Telescope Observations of (596) Scheila during its recent dust outburst. The nucleus remained point-like with absolute magnitude HV = 8.85 ± 0.02 in our data, equal to the pre-outburst value, with no secondary fragments of diameter ≥100 m (for assumed albedos 0.04). We find a coma having a peak scattering cross section ~2.2×104 km2, corresponding to a mass in micron-sized particles of ~4×107 kg. The particles are deflected by solar radiation pressure on projected spatial scales ~2×104 km, in the sunward direction, and swept from the vicinity of the nucleus on timescales of weeks. The coma fades by ~30% between observations on UT 2010 December 27 and 2011 January 4. The observed mass loss is inconsistent with an origin either by rotational instability of the nucleus or by electrostatic ejection of regolith charged by sunlight. Dust ejection could be caused by the sudden but unexplained exposure of buried ice. However, the data are most simply explained by the impact, at ~5 km s–1, of a previously unknown asteroid ~35 m in diameter.

Link: Paper (Collisional Excavation of Asteroid (596) Scheila)

Link: Paper (Hubble Space Telescope Observations of Main-belt Comet (596) Scheila)

Link: News Article

Link: YouTube Video (Scheila Asteroid Crash)

2011 International Primitive Body Exploration Working Group Meeting: Poster Abstract Submission

2011-04-30T08:58:00.000-04:00

Poster abstract submission for the 2011 International Primitive Body Exploration Working Group Meeting is available at the meeting website: http://ipewg.caltech.edu

Dates : August 22-24, 2011
Venue: Pasadena, CA

Abstracts will be accepted until August 1st. Further information about the meeting, agenda details and abstract submission are all available at the meeting website.

The discussions held at this meeting are expected to open new international collaboration opportunities for primitive body space exploration.

Organizing committee contact:
Keith Grogan
IPEWG 2011 LOC Chair
keith.grogan@jpl.nasa.gov

Link: 2011 International Primitive Body Exploration Working Group Meeting

ACM [Asteroids, Comets, Meteors] 2011 is postponed

2011-04-25T20:24:00.000-04:00

The LOC [Local Organizing Committee] decided to postpone of ACM [Asteroids, Comets, Meteors] 2011. (April. 4, 2011). The conference was scheduled for 17-22 July, 2011 in Niigata, Japan

Link: ACM Japan LOC site

Link: ACM 2011 site from IAU

Paper: Near-Earth object interception using nuclear thermal rocket propulsion

2011-04-25T20:15:00.000-04:00

Near-Earth object interception using nuclear thermal rocket propulsion

Journal Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering, Issue Volume 225, Number 2 / 2011, Pages 181-193, DOI 10.1243/09544100JAERO753

Authors:
X-L Zhang, E Ball, C Granier, L Kochmanski, S D Howe
1 Centre for Space Nuclear Research, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, USA

Abstract:
Planetary defense has drawn wide study: despite the low probability of a large-scale impact, its consequences would be disastrous. The study presented here evaluates available protection strategies to identify bottlenecks limiting the scale of near-Earth object that could be deflected, using cutting-edge and near-future technologies. It discusses the use of a nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) as a propulsion device for delivery of thermonuclear payloads to deflect or destroy a long-period comet on a collision course with Earth. A ‘worst plausible scenario’ for the available warning time (10 months) and comet approach trajectory are determined, and empirical data are used to make an estimate of the payload necessary to deflect such a comet. Optimizing the tradeoff between early interception and large deflection payload establishes the ideal trajectory for an interception mission to follow. The study also examines the potential for multiple rocket launch dates. Comparison of propulsion technologies for this mission shows that NTR outperforms other options substantially. The discussion concludes with an estimate of the comet size (5 km) that could be deflected using NTR propulsion, given current launch capabilities.

Link: Citation

Link: Paper (PDF)

Paper: Dynamics and control of a solar collector system for near Earth object deflection

2011-04-25T20:12:00.000-04:00

Dynamics and control of a solar collector system for near Earth object deflection

Shen-Ping Gong, Jun-Feng Li and Yun-Feng Gao
gongsp@tsinghua.edu.cn
School of Aerospace, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Abstract:
A solar collector system is a possible method using solar energy to deflect Earth-threatening near-Earth objects. We investigate the dynamics and control of a solar collector system including a main collector (MC) and secondary collector (SC). The MC is used to collect the sunlight to its focal point, where the SC is placed and directs the collected light to an asteroid. Both the relative position and attitude of the two collectors should be accurately controlled to achieve the desired optical path. First, the dynamical equation of the relative motion of the two collectors in the vicinity of the asteroid is modeled. Secondly, the nonlinear sliding-mode method is employed to design a control law to achieve the desired configuration of the two collectors. Finally, the deflection capability of this solar collector system is compared with those of the gravitational tractor and solar sail gravitational tractor. The results show that the solar collector is much more efficient with respect to deflection capability.

Link: Citation

Paper: Ion Beam Shepherd for Asteroid Deflection

2011-04-25T20:10:00.000-04:00

Ion Beam Shepherd for Asteroid Deflection

Authors:
C. Bombardelli, J. Pelaez

Abstract:
We present a novel concept to impart a continuous thrust to an Earth threatening asteroid from a hovering spacecraft without need for physical attachment nor gravitational interaction with the asteroid. The concept involves an ion thruster placed at a distance of a few asteroid diameters directing a stream of quasi-neutral plasma against the asteroid surface resulting into a net transferred momentum. As the transmitted force is independent of the asteroid mass and size the method allows deflecting subkilometer asteroids with a spacecraft much lighter when compared to a gravity tractor spacecraft of equal deflection capability. The finding could make low-cost asteroid deflection missions possible in the coming years.

Cite as: arXiv:1102.1276v1 [physics.space-ph]

Link: Citation

Link: Paper

Paper: Deflecting APOPHIS with a flotilla of solar shields

2011-04-25T20:02:00.001-04:00

Deflecting APOPHIS with a flotilla of solar shields

Jean-Yves Prado (a), , , , Alain Perret (b), and Olivier Boisard (b),
a CNES, Toulouse 31401, 18 Avenue Edouard Belin, Toulouse cedex 9, France
b Union pour la Promotion de la Propulsion Photonique, 37530 Nazelles-Négron, France

Abstract:
The possibility to use the photonic pressure from the Sun for acting upon the orbit of a man-made object is well known. What is presented in this paper is the capacity to use a solar sail like vehicle to change the orbit of a small body of the solar system by hovering over its sunlit surface. One of the forces that affect the orbit of small bodies is a tiny but permanent thrust of thermal origin, the intensity and direction of which are directly related to the nature of the soil, the characteristics of the rotation and the physical properties of the body. This effect is known as the Yarkovsky Effect. It concerns mainly hundred meter class asteroids. There are hundred thousands of small bodies of this type. About 10% of them are classified as Near Earth Object and one of them, APOPHIS, is of special interest. APOPHIS has been discovered in 2004. Its diameter is estimated to be 270 m. Its rotation period is around 30 h so the Yarkovsky Effect on its orbit should not be negligible. These parameters and possibly others should be refined in 2012 when this asteroid can be observed again. APOPHIS will make a very close (40,000 km) approach to the Earth in April 2029. Depending on the geometry of its swing-by, it can be placed on an impact orbit to the Earth and present a danger for the future decades. The areas that correspond to such trajectories are called Resonant Orbit Keyholes and are only a few hundred meter wide. From the observation in 2012, it will be possible to determine the magnitude of the Yarkovsky Effect on APOPHIS and to greatly improve the prevision of its 2029 swing-by. If the Yarkovsky Effect is found to be important, cancelling it will be sufficient to avoid any keyhole and prevent any future collision with the Earth. We call Yarkovsky Effect Suppression (YES) this deflection method. This effect can be cancelled by shadowing and cooling down the asteroid with a flotilla of solar shields. This new type of solar sails will have to counter the photonic pressure in order to maintain their hovering position. In this paper, we propose a preliminary mission design and the main system requirements, especially as regards station keeping. This mission is named SHADOW. Finally we discuss the pros and cons of this strategy and compare its effectiveness to already identified mitigation methods.

Link: ScienceDirect (Advances in Space Research)

The "Future of Planetary Defense" outreach event (Sunday, 8 May, 2011, Bucharest, Romania) in conjunction 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference

2011-04-25T19:58:00.000-04:00

The Space Generation Advisory Council (SGAC) is organizing a "Future of Planetary Defense" outreach event that will be held Sunday, 8 May, 2011 in Bucharest, Romania in conjunction with the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference.

Link: Event information

Link: SGAC News Release

2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference Agenda

2011-04-25T19:50:00.000-04:00

The agenda is near complete for the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference: From Threat to Action (9-12 May 2011, Bucharest, Romania).

Link: PDC 2011 agenda

Link: PDC 2011 website

Target NEO Workshop - Draft Final Report Available for Comment

2011-04-25T19:48:00.000-04:00

From the TargetNEO workshop organizers:

The session chairs have now completed a draft of a final report summarizing the key points of the workshop, posted on the workshop website (www.targetneo.org). We’d like to solicit your comments to truly make this a document endorsed by the community. To facilitate this, we’ve created a web-based discussion group that can be accessed via the website. Or if you prefer, you can send any comments directly to info@targetneo.org . We’d like to finalize the document in about a month, so we request that any comments be submitted before May 16.

Link: Public Draft of the Target NEO Workshop Report

Link: TargetNEO website

Move An Asteroid 2011: International Student and Young Professional Technical Paper Competition

2011-04-25T19:44:00.002-04:00

From the Space Generation Advisory Council (SGAC):

Move An Asteroid 2011

An outreach project designed to raise awareness by offering students and young professionals the chance to come up with original ideas about NEO deflection and warning. Three successful competitions have been held starting in 2008. The prize is always a full-scholarship to the International Astronautical Congress and the Space Generation Congress. This year's deadline is 1 July, 2011.

Link: Move An Asteroid Competition

Link: SGAC Move An Asteroid Competition News Annoucement

Presentations from Target NEO Workshop (22 February 2011): Providing a Resilient NEO Accessibility Program for Human Exploration Beyond LEO

2011-03-03T11:40:00.002-05:00

Presentations from the recent TargetNEO workshop are now online.

Target NEO: Providing a Resilient NEO Accessibility
Program for Human Exploration Beyond LEO
Open Global Community NEO Workshop
February 22, 2011, 8 am – 6:30pm
George Washington University

- Session Summaries

Summaries of the various sessions are followed by detailed presentations at the sessions:

Session 2: The NEO Population: Knowns and Unknowns
2 - Summary

Session 3: Mission Design: Getting There and Back
3 - Summary

Session 4: NEO Characteristics for Safe and Meaningful Human Exploration
4 - Summary

Session 5: Mission Duration: Quantifying the Risks
5 - Summary

Session 6: Affordable Options for Increasing the Accessible NEO Catalog
6 - Summary

- Detailed Session Presentations

Session 1: Introduction, Workshop Scope, Overview of Flexible Path Vision
Session Moderator: John Logsdon, George Washington University, Faculty, Space Policy Institute

-Thomas Jones, Veteran Astronaut, Senior Research Scientist, Florida Institute for Human & Machine Cognition; “NEO Search Required for Operations & Exploration Risk Reduction”
1 - Jones

- Scott Pace, George Washington University, Director, Space Policy Institute; “Sustainable Human Space Exploration”
1 - Pace

- Dave Korsmeyer, Chief, Intelligent Systems Division, NASA Ames Research Center, NASA Analysis Lead: Augustine Committee Flexible Path Option; “The Augustine Commission and the Flexible Path
1 - Korsmeyer

Session 2: The NEO Population: Knowns and Unknowns
Chairs: Andy Cheng, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and Lindley Johnson, NASA Headquarters, Science Mission Directorat

- Session Introduction
2 - Intro

- Tim Spahr - Director, Minor Planet Center, SAO; “MPC Operations and Update”
2 - Spahr

- Don Yeomans - Program Scientist/Mgr., NASA NEO Program Office, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; “Precision NEO Orbit Prediction at JPL”
2 - Yeomans

- Scott Stuart - Deputy PI, LINEAR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory; “Searching for NEOs”
2 - Stuart

- Amy Mainzer – WISE Deputy Project Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; “Space-based NEO Detection and Tracking, NEOWISE and Beyond”
2 - Mainzer

- Al Harris - NEO Population Studies, Consultant; “NEO Population Estimates
2 - Harris

Session 3: Mission Design: Getting There and Back
Chairs: Brent Barbee, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Dan Adamo, NASA
Johnson Space Center, ret., Consultant

- Session 3 Introduction
3 - Intro

- Damon Landau, Outer Planet Mission Analyst, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; “NEO Trajectories on a Flexible Path to Mars”
3 - Landau

- Bret Drake, Architect, Exploration Missions and Systems Office, NASA Johnson Space Center; “Architectures for Human Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids”
3 - Drake

- Ron Mink, Mission Systems Engineer, Mission Systems Engineering Services & Advanced Concepts Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; “Enabling Affordable Human Asteroid Missions by 2025”
3 - Mink

- Josh Hopkins, Principal Investigator for Advanced Human Exploration Missions, Lockheed-Martin Space Systems Company; “Short, Simple Asteroid Missions: The Plymouth Rock Approach”
3 - Hopkins

- Chel Stromgren, Chief Scientist for Strategic Analysis, SAIC; “Getting to the Starting Line: Launch and Assembly Reliability for Deep Space Missions”
3 - Stromgren

Session 4: NEO Characteristics for Safe and Meaningful Human Exploration
Chairs: Andy Rivkin, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory and Paul Abell, NASA Johnson Space Center

- Session 4 Introduction
4 - Intro

- Patrick Michel, Senior Researcher, University of Nice, CNRS, Cote d’Azur Observatory; “Physical Properties of NEOs: Current Knowledge from Observations, Simulations, and Their Possible Influence for the Design of a Human Mission”
4 - Michel

- Lance Benner, Research Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; “Arecibo and Goldstone Radar Characterization of NEO Mission Targets”
4 - Benner

- Joe Nuth, Senior Scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; “Do we Really Understand the Rocks that Astronauts Might be Visiting?”
4 - Nuth

- Dan Scheeres, Professor, Department of Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado; “The Asteroid Surface Environment, Knowns and Unknowns”
4 - Scheeres

- Mike Hess, Chief of the EVA, Robotics, and Crew Systems Operations Division, NASA Johnson Space Center; “Extravehicular Activity Considerations for Near-Earth Object Operations”
4 - Hess

Session 5: Mission Duration: Quantifying the Risks
Chairs: Dan Mazanek, NASA Langley Research Center and Rob Landis, NASA Ames Research Center

- Session 5 Introduction
5 - Intro

- Craig Kundrot, Deputy Program Scientist, Human Research Program, NASA Johnson Space Center; “Long Duration Space Missions: Human Subsystem Risks and Requirements”
5 - Kundrot

- Jack Stuster, Vice President, Principal Scientist & Author, Anacapa Sciences, Inc.; “Acceptable Risk: Human Missions to Near-Earth Objects”
5 - Stuster

- Ron Turner, Fellow, Analytical Services, Inc. (ANSER); “Radiation Risks and Challenges Associated with Human NEO Missions”
5 - Turner

- Andy Thomas, Astronaut (STS/MIR/ISS), ESMD Architecture Development, NASA Johnson Space Center; “Some Crew Perspectives of a NEO Mission”
5 - Thomas

Session 6: Affordable Options for Increasing the Accessible NEO Catalog
Chairs: Rich Dissly, Ball Aerospace and Ken Hibbard, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

- Session 6 Introduction
6 - Intro

- Andy Cheng, Chief Scientist, Space Department, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory; “NEO Orbit Simulation Approach”
6 - Cheng

- Lynne Jones, LSST Solar System Project Scientist, University of Washington; “NEO Detection Capabilities of LSST”
6 - Jones

- Ken Hibbard, Senior Spacecraft Systems & Operations Engineer, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory; “NEAR-Earth Survey Telescope (NEST) Human Robotic Precursor Mission Concept”
6 - Hibbard

- Amy Mainzer – WISE Deputy Project Scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; “Next-Generation Space-Based IR NEO Surveys”
6 - Mainzer

- Robert Arentz, Adv. Systems Manager, Ball Aerospace; “A Candidate NEO Survey Mission for Affordable Human Spaceflight Target Assurance
6 - Arentz

Link: TargetNEO Website

RAGE game by id Software (takes place after Apophis Impact)

2011-02-17T20:02:00.000-05:00

The new first person shooter game, RAGE by id Software has an interesting back story, from Wikipedia...

The game is set in a post-apocalyptic wasteland created by an asteroid impact, based on the real life asteroid Apophis, which is on track to pass near Earth in 2036. In Rage's story, the asteroid hits, and the few pockets of survivors are forced to start a new civilization.

From the RAGE game site...

August 23, 2037: Apophis 99942 strikes the eastern hemisphere.

Carrying the force of 2.4 million megatons, 30% of life on Earth becomes extinct in 26 seconds.

Within one year 80% of all life is gone. To make matters worse, Apophis contained large amounts of heavy elements. Darkness blankets the planet. The Earth falls into an impact winter lasting almost 50 years and life on the surface is driven to the brink.

Prior to impact, in an effort to save human civilization, Arks are constructed and buried deep underground. These cryogenic lifeboats carry humanity's future, preserved with the tools they need to rebuild. They are the seeds of Earth's rebirth.

But when survivors begin to emerge from the Arks, they find the unexpected. Many humans who were above ground during the impact unexpectedly survived, while horrific mutants roam the dead cities. And a mysterious tyrannical government, bent on creating a new world order, has begun the search . . . for you.

Link: Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rage_(video_game))

Link: RAGE game site (id Software)

JPL News Release: "NASA Releases Images of Man-Made Crater on Comet"

2011-02-15T21:22:00.000-05:00

Tempel 1 Impact Site. This pair of images shows the before-and-after comparison of the part of comet Tempel 1 that was hit by the impactor from NASA's Deep Impact spacecraft. The left-hand image is a composite made from images obtained by Deep Impact in July 2005. The right-hand image shows arrows identifying the rim of the crater caused by the impactor. The crater is estimated to be 150 meters (500 feet) in diameter. This image also shows a brighter mound in the center of the crater likely created when material from the impact fell back into the crater. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Maryland/Cornell.

Selections from the JPL news release on results of the Stardust-NExT mission...

NASA's Stardust spacecraft returned new images of a comet showing a scar resulting from the 2005 Deep Impact mission. The images also showed the comet has a fragile and weak nucleus.

The spacecraft made its closest approach to comet Tempel 1 on Monday, Feb. 14, at 8:40 p.m. PST (11:40 p.m. EST) at a distance of approximately 178 kilometers (111 miles). Stardust took 72 high-resolution images of the comet. It also accumulated 468 kilobytes of data about the dust in its coma, the cloud that is a comet's atmosphere. The craft is on its second mission of exploration called Stardust-NExT, having completed its prime mission collecting cometary particles and returning them to Earth in 2006.

The Stardust-NExT mission met its goals, which included observing surface features that changed in areas previously seen during the 2005 Deep Impact mission; imaging new terrain; and viewing the crater generated when the 2005 mission propelled an impactor at the comet.

"This mission is 100 percent successful," said Joe Veverka, Stardust-NExT principal investigator of Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. "We saw a lot of new things that we didn't expect, and we'll be working hard to figure out what Tempel 1 is trying to tell us."

Several of the images provide tantalizing clues to the result of the Deep Impact mission's collision with Tempel 1.

"We see a crater with a small mound in the center, and it appears that some of the ejecta went up and came right back down," said Pete Schultz of Brown University, Providence, R.I. "This tells us this cometary nucleus is fragile and weak based on how subdued the crater is we see today."

Engineering telemetry downlinked after closest approach indicates the spacecraft flew through waves of disintegrating cometary particles, including a dozen impacts that penetrated more than one layer of its protective shielding.

"The data indicate Stardust went through something similar to a B-17 bomber flying through flak in World War II," said Don Brownlee, Stardust-NExT co-investigator from the University of Washington in Seattle. "Instead of having a little stream of uniform particles coming out, they apparently came out in chunks and crumbled."

While the Valentine's Day night encounter of Tempel 1 is complete, the spacecraft will continue to look at its latest cometary obsession from afar.

"This spacecraft has logged over 3.5 billion miles since launch, and while its last close encounter is complete, its mission of discovery is not," said Tim Larson, Stardust-NExT project manager at JPL. "We'll continue imaging the comet as long as the science team can gain useful information, and then Stardust will get its well-deserved rest."

Link: JPL News Release ("NASA Releases Images of Man-Made Crater on Comet")

Association of Space Explorers (ASE) NEO Statements at Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Scientific and Technical Subcommittee Forty-eighth session

2011-02-15T12:17:00.004-05:00

The Association of Space Explorers (ASE) had a separate presentation and statement from the recent UN COPUOS meeting in February 2011. A selected highlighted portion from their overall statement (presented by Dr. Thomas Jones) follows...

"ASE respectfully calls on the COPUOS and the international community, especially its member states’ space agencies, to approve the immediate activation of the IAWN [Information, Analysis and Warning network] and MPOG [Mission Planning and Operations group] functional groups, getting on with the important business of NEO warning and deflection mission planning."

Other points from their presentation...

Forward Work on NEO Decision-Making:
- AT14 and space agencies to further develop concepts of IAWN and MPOG
- Mission Authorization and Oversight Group (High-level: Security Council?, Multi-lateral discussions at COPUOS and among member states, agencies)
- Member States & Agencies Cooperate on Technical Research and Programs to Inform Decision-Making

Link: Association of Space Explorers NEO Statement to COPUOS/STSC

Link: Association of Space Explorers NEO Presentation to COPUOS/STSC

UN CONPUOS: Interim report of the Action Team on Near-Earth Objects (2010-2011)

2011-02-15T12:12:00.000-05:00

The latest report from the UN COPUOS Action Team on Near Earth Objects has updates on global asteroid detection efforts as well as series of draft recommendations for near Earth object threat mitigation functions. It is noted that many of these draft recommendations are similar to the recommendations the Association of Space Explorers (ASE) have developed. The ASE has a separate presentation and statement from the recent UN COPUOS meeting in February.

Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
Scientific and Technical Subcommittee
Forty-eighth session
Vienna, 7-18 February 2011
Item 11 of the provisional agenda
Near-Earth objects

Near-Earth objects, 2010-2011
Interim report of the Action Team on Near-Earth Objects

The present interim report is a summary of the input received from members of the Action Team on near-Earth Objects for 2010-2011 and serves as an update to its previous interim report, which covered the period 2009-2010 ((A/ AC.105/C.1/L.301).

Link: Report to COPUOS [PDF]

Link: Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, Scientific and Technical Subcommittee, Forty-eighth session Online Documents

Link: Association of Space Explorers NEO Statement to COPUOS/STSC

Link: Association of Space Explorers NEO Presentation to COPUOS/STSC

Selected Papers from Upcoming 42nd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (7-11 March, 2011)

2011-02-15T11:04:00.000-05:00

Sample of interesting papers from upcoming 42nd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, to be held in Texas on March 7–11, 2011. Many papers on asteroids and only a selection are provided here (with short abstracts):

Los Alamos RAGE Hydrocode Simulations of Effective Mitigation of Porous PHO Objects [#1145]
Weaver R. P. Plesko C. S. Dearholt W. R.
We use the RAGE hydrocode to simulate surface/subsurface explosive mitigation of nonspherical asteroid models. The current simulations incorporate nonuniform composition, porosity of the object, and various depths of burial of the explosive and show effective mitigation.

Energy Deposition in Hazard Mitigation by Nuclear Burst: Sensitivity to Energy Source Characteristics, Geometry, and Target Composition [#2588]
Plesko C. S. Weaver R. P. Huebner W. F.
We present hydrocode and particle transport code models of energy deposition from nuclear bursts onto materials relevant to PHO mitigation. We find that momentum transfer is affected by burst geometry and PHO composition.

Near-Earth Asteroid Survey Precursor to Human Exploration [#1820]
Cheng A. F. Rivkin A. S. Hibbard K. Mink R. Barber B. Garvin J. Abell P. Mazanek D. Landis R.
The most urgent knowledge needed to prepare for human spaceflight to a near Earth object is the need to discover a sufficient number of suitable candidate targets. These targets can be discovered quickly and affordably by a space-based telescopic survey.

Program of Automatic Asteroid Search and Detection on Series of CCD-Images [#1140]
Savanevich V. E. Kozhukhov A. M. Bryukhovetskiy A. B. Vlasenko V. P. Dikov E. N. Ivashchenko Yu. N. Elenin L.
The paper presents a brief description of the program, which realized a new method of the finding low contrast moving objects for automatic asteroid detection by small telescopes, equipped with CCD cameras. The result of program usage is presented.

A Tool for the Visualization of Small Body Data [#1618]
Kahn E. G. Barnouin O. S. Buczkowski D. L. Ernst C. M. Izenberg N. Murchie S. Prockter L. M.
This paper describes a new software tool called the Small Body Mapping Tool that was developed to facilitate the task of searching, visualizing, and analyzing data returned from small body missions.

A Rover Simulation Tool for Small Body Exploration [#1960]
Harada T. Kitazato K. Hirata N. Demura H. Asada N.
We have developed a simulation tool of the hopping rover for small body exploration. This simulator implements physics-based computing of the rover motion and its visualization.

Albedo and Taxonomic Class Relationships of Near-Earth Objects Observed by the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) [#1219]
Maleszewski C. K. Jr. Masiero J. McMillan R. S. Mainzer A. Scotti J. V. Larsen J. A. WISE Team
This poster is a status report on a project that will determine the relationship between taxonomic class and albedos of NEOs using those observed by WISE. The completion of this study will constrain the physical properties and compositions of NEOs.

Link: The 42nd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference

JPL News Release: Comet Hunter's First Images on the Ground

2011-02-15T11:00:00.001-05:00

NASA's Stardust-NExT mission transmitted the first image it took during its approach to comet Tempel 1 at 8:35 p.m. PST (11:35 p.m. EST) on Feb. 14, 2011, from a distance of approximately 2,462 kilometers (1,530 miles). The comet was first visited by NASA's Deep Impact mission in 2005. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell

Link: JPL News Release ("Comet Hunter's First Images on the Ground")

NASA FY2012 Budget and NEO Program (Increase from About US$6 M to US$20M)

2011-02-14T13:59:00.005-05:00

The recent NASA FY2012 Budget request from President Obama has been released. Some quick highlights related to NEOs. It looks as if the Near Earth Object Observations (NEOO) program will have its budget increased from US$5.8M in FY2010 (and similar amount in FY2011 due to the Continuing Resolution) to approximatively a little over US$20M in FY2012. From the recent budget release from NASA:

Near Earth Object Observations (NEOO) program

- Budget Authority, $ in millions

Actual FY2010: US$5.8 M
FY2011: Continuing Resolution (CR)
FY2012: US$20.4 M
FY2013: US$20.5 M
FY2014: US$20.6 M
FY2015: US$20.7 M
FY2016: US$21.1 M

The NEOO project detects and tracks at least 90 percent of the near Earth objects (NEOs)-- asteroids, and comets that come within 1.3 astronomical units of the Sun. It's long term goal is to find those of at least 140 meters in size that have any potential to collide with Earth and do significant damage to the planet. In the course of this effort, initial characterization of NEOs that could be viable targets for robotic and crewed exploration will also occur. In accordance with the findings and recommendations of the January 2010 NRC study on the NEO hazard, NEOO will continue to:

- Collect, archive, and analyze the small body data collected by NASA's WISE mission, and support increased follow-up and analysis of this data;

- Enable collection of NEO detection and characterization data by ground-based systems, including the U.S. Air Force's (USAF) Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Reporting System (Pan-STARRS) and investigate the use of other USAF space surveillance assets for this mission;

- Support the continued operation of planetary radar capabilities at the NSF's Arecibo and NASA's Goldstone facilities; and

- Investigate both ground and space-based concepts for increasing capacity to detect, track and characterize potentially hazardous objects down to sizes 140 meters and below.

More information on NASA's NEO program is available at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/.

Link: NASA Budget Documents

Link: FY 2012 Complete Budget Estimates (8.2 MB PDF)

Update from JPL on Stardust-NExT

2011-02-14T13:58:00.000-05:00

This composite image was taken by NASA's Stardust spacecraft 42 hours before its encounter with comet Tempel 1. It is the last image by the spacecraft's navigation camera before its encounter in the evening hours of Feb. 14, 2011. The image is a composite of four, five-second exposures. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell

From the news release...

As of today, Feb. 14, at 9:21 a.m. PST (12:21 p.m. EST), NASA's Stardust-NExT mission spacecraft is within a quarter-million miles (402,336 kilometers) of its quarry, comet Tempel 1, which it will fly by tonight. The spacecraft is cutting the distance with the comet at a rate of about 10.9 kilometers per second (6.77 miles per second or 24,000 mph).

The flyby of Tempel 1 will give scientists an opportunity to look for changes on the comet's surface since it was visited by NASA's Deep Impact spacecraft in July 2005. Since then, Tempel 1 has completed one orbit of the sun, and scientists are looking forward to discovering any differences in the comet.

The closest approach is expected tonight at approximately 8:40 p.m. PST (11:40 p.m. EST).

During the encounter phase, the spacecraft will carry out many important milestones in short order and automatically, as the spacecraft is too far away to receive timely updates from Earth. These milestones include turning the spacecraft to point its protective shields between it and the anticipated direction from which cometary particles would approach. Another milestone will occur at about four minutes to closest approach, when the spacecraft will begin science imaging of the comet's nucleus.

The nominal imaging sequence will run for about eight minutes. The spacecraft's onboard memory is limited to 72 high-resolution images, so the imaging will be most closely spaced around the time of closest approach for best-resolution coverage of Tempel 1's nucleus. At the time of closest encounter, the spacecraft is expected to be approximately 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the comet's nucleus.

The mission team expects to begin receiving images on the ground starting at around midnight PST (3 a.m. on Feb. 15 EST). Transmission of each image will take about 15 minutes. It will take about 10 hours to complete the transmission of all images and science data aboard the spacecraft.

Live coverage on NASA TV and via the Internet begins at 8:30 p.m. PST (11:30 p.m. EST) from mission control at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. Coverage also will include segments from the Lockheed Martin Space System's mission support area in Denver. A post-flyby news conference is planned on Feb. 15 at 10 a.m. PST (1 p.m. EST).

Link: JPL News Release ("NASA Spacecraft Hours From Comet Encounter").

07 July 2010 or 07 July 2011 Meeting between Russia and the European Union on Joint Asteroid Mission?

2011-02-14T12:09:00.011-05:00

Recent articles have indicated that there will be a meeting on July 7, 2011 between Russia and the European Union on a potential joint mission (to Apophis?). However articles from 2010 indicate that a similar meeting was held on July 7, 2010. Are the recent set of articles on the 2011 meeting referring instead to the 2010 meeting.

Selections from an article below that talks about a 2011 meeting...

As more astronomers are recognizing the danger, a major summit has been called. “Russian space officials and members of the European Commission will meet in early July to discuss joining forces against thousands of potentially hazardous asteroids,” Anatoly Perminov, the head of the Russian Federal Space Agency Roscosmos stated in an official press release.

A meeting scheduled for July 7, 2011 will consider a proposal to launch a joint asteroid project between Russia and the European Union.

In an interview on Russian television following the press release, Perminov said, “I received a letter, in which the European Commission proposes to meet on July 7 in Roscosmos with scientists and engineers of the Federal Space Agency, the Russian Academy of Sciences and other institutions and organizations. At the meeting, the Russian bid to start a joint project with the EU will be considered.”

Link: Article on January 31, 2011 ("Russian scientists predict asteroid strike")

link: Article on June 24, 2010 ("Russia, Europe may join forces to protect Earth from asteroids")

Video: Date with a Comet 2011: NASA's Stardust NExT mission and flyby of comet Tempel 1 (Encounter: 14 Feb. 2011, 8:58 PM Earth Received Time PST)

2011-02-14T00:26:00.002-05:00

Date with a Comet 2011: NASA's Stardust NExT mission and flyby of comet Tempel 1 (Encounter: 14 Feb. 2011, 8:58 PM Earth Received Time PST)

Link: YouTube Video ("Date with a Comet Video)

Stardust-NExT Update (Sunday Feb 13, E-1 day)

2011-02-14T00:22:00.001-05:00

Comet 9P/Tempel 1 (Source: JPL Small-Body Database Browser)

From JPL on the Stardust-NExT mission encounter on 14-15 February 2011 with Comet 9P/Tempel 1...

The overnight activities taken by the flight team went very well, and the final OpNavs taken at E-42 hours were successfully acquired and downlinked.

The navigation solutions were finished this morning, and they show that the predicted delivery is within the ‘green zone’ of the delivery chart. The nominal flyby point is at 191 km from the surface of the comet with a 11km uncertainty radius. The current Time of Closest Approach estimate is still around 04:40 UTC on February 15 (20:40 February 14 in Pasadena). Based on these discussions and updates, the following decisions were made, with full concurrence between the PM and PI:

- No TCM 34 will be executed
- The nominal imaging sequences for both timing and exposures will be implemented in the flyby sequence

The final Nav and Autonav products will be delivered to DOM slightly ahead of schedule, and these will be used to build the final products. These products will be uplinked to the spacecraft this evening, beginning around 20:00 PST. Once these products are on board, the next on board activity will begin around E-3 hours.Many thanks to the S/C team, the Nav team, the Science team, and the various ground observers who provided invaluable data.

Link: Stardust-NExT 2011 Mission: Status Report (JPL)

SETI Institute Talk: "Near-Earth Asteroid Danger/Opportunity - David Morrison"

2011-02-13T15:38:00.000-05:00

Link: YouTube Video ("Near-Earth Asteroid Danger/Opportunity - David Morrison (SETI Talks)")

SETI Institute Talk: "Hayabusa Reentry - Peter Jenniskens"

2011-02-13T15:37:00.000-05:00

Link: YouTube Video ("Hayabusa Reentry - Peter Jenniskens")

SETI Institute Talk: "Radar videos of asteroids - Ellen Howell"

2011-02-13T15:36:00.000-05:00

Link: YouTube Video ("Radar videos of asteroids - Ellen Howell (SETI Talks)")

SpaceWatch in Action: Video on Kitt Peak National Observatory Tracking of new NEOs (Near Earth Objects)

2011-02-13T15:25:00.000-05:00

Link: YouTube Video ("Keeping Earth Safe from Asteroids & Comets")

FoxNews On Apophis 2036 Impact Issue with Russians

2011-02-13T15:15:00.003-05:00

Link: Foxnews Video ("Scientists Spar Over 2036 Asteroid Apocalypse")

Video Introduction: International Symposium on Asteroid Mitigation and Exploration (Texas A&M on April 4-6, 2011)

2011-02-13T15:15:00.001-05:00

A short video by Dr. Hyland explaining the summary of the International Symposium on Asteroid Mitigation and Exploration (ISAME) to be held at Texas A&M on April 4-6, 2011.

Link: YouTube Video ("International Symposium on Asteroid Mitigation and Exploration")

Video: "The Universe: End of the Earth"

2011-02-13T15:09:00.000-05:00

Link: YouTube Video ("The Universe: End of the Earth (Part 1)"

Link: YouTube Video ("The Universe: End of the Earth (Part 2)"

Link: YouTube Video ("The Universe: End of the Earth (Part 3)"

Paper: NEOs as stepping stones to Mars and main-belt asteroids (Gregory Matloff Paper in March-April 2011 Acta Astronautica)

2011-02-11T23:14:00.001-05:00

NEOs as stepping stones to Mars and main-belt asteroids

Acta Astronautica
Volume 68, Issues 5-6, March-April 2011, Pages 599-602
Special Issue: Aosta 2009 Symposium

Gregory L. Matloff and Monika Wilga
Physics Department, New York City College of Technology
CUNY, 300 Jay Street, Brooklyn, NY 11201, USA

Abstract
Human interplanetary missions are constrained by the problem of astronaut exposure to galactic cosmic radiation. This paper surveys the existing on-line near-Earth object (NEO) data base in an effort to identify NEOs that cross both Earth's ad Mars’ orbits and could be used as cosmic ray shields by interplanetary voyagers. The search concentrated on low-inclination Mars-crossing NEOs that approach Earth, Mars, and main-belt asteroids in the 2020–2100 time frame. Both outbound and return transfers were searched for. Several candidates for Earth–Mars, Mars–Earth, and Earth–Vesta transfers have been found from the very incomplete August 2008 data base. Other aspects of this interplanetary transfer option are considered.

Link: Acta Astronautica

Selections from the National Geographic article on the above paper...

Future astronauts could hitchhike their way to Mars—without the need for a Vogon Constructor Fleet. According to a new paper, space explorers could reach the red planet by riding along inside asteroids.

Landing a ship on a space rock would solve a key issue facing Mars travelers: how to shield astronauts from galactic cosmic rays, high-energy particles traveling at near light speed that come from outside the solar system.

Cosmic rays can damage DNA, increasing the risks of cancer and cataracts for space travelers. Current research suggests that the amount of radiation that would bombard an astronaut during a thousand-day, round-trip Mars mission increases his or her risk of cancer by 1 to 19 percent.

Instead of focusing on building a better shield, engineers should design spaceships that can hop in and out of passing asteroids, argues study author Gregory Matloff, an adjunct professor of physics at the New York City College of Technology.

The asteroid itself could then block cosmic rays during the voyage—astronauts could pull a Millennium Falcon and park their ship in a crater, or they could use on-board mining tools to tunnel into the rock.

According to Matloff's calculations, to be published in the March-April 2011 issue of the journal Acta Astronautica, the asteroid "taxi" would need to be about 33 feet (10 meters) wide to provide enough shielding. It would also need to pass close enough to both planets—within a couple million miles—to make the trip feasible.

Already there are five known asteroids that fit the criteria and will pass from Earth to Mars before the year 2100, based on a database of 5,500 near-Earth objects (NEOs), or comets and asteroids whose orbits take them near our planet.

The asteroids 1999YR14 and 2007EE26, for example, will both pass Earth in 2086, and they'll make the journey to Mars in less than a year. The trouble would be getting home: Because of their wide orbits, it'd be five years before either asteroid would swing around Mars as it heads back toward Earth.

Matloff did find a third space rock that will travel from Mars to Earth—but it makes the journey too early, in 2037. For now it seems a space taxi to Mars would be a one-way ride.

However, the number of NEOs has increased since the database was compiled, Matloff said. There are now more than 7,000 known NEOs, so more potential rock taxis could exist.

Ideally, astronauts would divert an asteroid so that it cycles permanently between Earth and Mars on a well-timed orbit. Humans could nudge an asteroid into the desired path using a solar sail or gentle propulsion. (See "Solar Sail Hybrid Launches From Japan.")

Once the asteroid is in a stable orbit, Matloff said, "you'd just jump on it. You could store provisions and spare parts on it and use it for shielding. ... "

Nasser Barghouty, a project scientist at NASA's Space Radiation Shielding Project, said Matloff's idea works in theory. But he thinks having so many extra launches and landings would prove too risky.

Like an airline passenger with multiple layovers, "I'd need to hop on so many legs [during the journey]," he said. "That adds to the complexity of the mission, which adds more risk."

A simpler answer is to build lightweight shielding out of something other than aluminum.

The International Space Station, for example, uses plastic panels to help protect its inhabitants from the effects of long-term radiation: "Plastic does the trick," Barghouty said.

Source: National Geographic article ("Astronauts Could Ride Asteroids to Mars, Study Says")

Asteroid 2011 CQ1 and close Earth Approach

2011-02-11T23:04:00.000-05:00

The newly discovered object, officially designated 2011 CQ1, is shown in this image from Tzec Maun Observatory in New Mexico. G. Sostero & E. Guido/Remanzacco Observatory

Trajectory of Asteroid 2011 CQ1 - February 4, 2011, Source: NASA JPL

From Don Yeomans and Paul Chodas at JPL...

Asteroid 2011 CQ1 was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey on February 4 and made a record close Earth approach 14 hours later on February 4 at 19:39 UT (14:39 EST). It passed to within 0.85 Earth radii (5480 km) of the Earth's surface over a region in the mid-Pacific. This object, only about one meter in diameter, is the closest non-impacting object in our asteroid catalog to date. Prior to the Earth close approach, this object was in a so-called Apollo-class orbit that was mostly outside the Earth's orbit. Following the close approach, the Earth's gravitational attraction modified the object's orbit to an Aten-class orbit where the asteroid spends almost all of its time inside the Earth's orbit.

As is evident from the diagram, the close Earth approach changed the asteroid's flight path by about 60 degrees. Because of their small size, object's of this size are difficult to discover but there is likely to be nearly a billion objects of this size and larger in near-Earth space and one would expect one to strike Earth's atmosphere every few weeks on average. Upon striking the atmosphere, small objects of this size create visually impressive fireball events but only rarely do even a few small fragments reach the ground.

Link: NASA JPL NEO page post ("Very Small Asteroid Makes Close Earth Approach on February 4, 2011")

From the Scientific American post (also space.com article) on Asteroid 2011 CQ1...

The solar system is littered with natural debris—asteroids, comets and pieces of the same that occasionally wind up in the steamrolling path of one of the planets. When a piece of debris encounters the friction of Earth's atmosphere, it flares up as a meteor, or shooting star, and pieces of the object may survive the heat of reentry to reach the surface as meteorites.

Many more objects whiz past Earth without striking the atmosphere, perhaps returning for another pass some years later. Many of those go undetected, especially the small asteroids that are harder to spot with the relatively modest telescopes that keep watch for near-Earth objects.

But sky monitors did spot one small asteroid, called 2011 CQ1, less than a day before it buzzed Earth at the smallest distance ever recorded. On February 4, the meter-size rock flew over the Pacific at an altitude of about 5,500 kilometers—about one-seventieth the distance between Earth and the moon and well below the orbit of some high-flying satellites.

But even though 2011 CQ1 skirted immolation in Earth's atmosphere, it did not escape from the encounter unmolested. Earth's gravity gave the asteroid a good tweak, redirecting its trajectory by about 60 degrees in much the same way that interplanetary spacecraft use the gravity of the planets for course corrections or speed adjustments. "Prior to the Earth close approach, this object was in a so-called Apollo-class orbit that was mostly outside the Earth's orbit," asteroid trackers Don Yeomans and Paul Chodas wrote on the NASA Near-Earth Object Program Web site. "Following the close approach, the Earth's gravitational attraction modified the object's orbit to an Aten-class orbit where the asteroid spends almost all of its time inside the Earth's orbit."

Just what is in store for the tiny asteroid is unclear—faint as 2011 CQ1 is, it was visible only briefly, when it was very close to Earth, and its newly adjusted orbit is not well understood.

Link: Scientific American post ("Record-setting "near miss" of Earth dramatically shifted tiny asteroid's orbit")

New Release: "NASA Hosting Events for Valentine's Night Comet Encounter"

2011-02-11T22:47:00.002-05:00

Stardust-NExt. Artist concept of NASA's Stardust-NExT mission, which will fly by comet Tempel 1 on Feb. 14, 2011. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/LMSS

From the JPL news release (also available, another more general news release) on the Stardust-NExT mission...

NASA will host several live activities for the Stardust-NExT mission's close encounter with comet Tempel 1. The closest approach is expected at approximately 8:37 p.m. PST (11:37 p.m. EST) on Feb. 14, with confirmation received on Earth at about 8:56 p.m. PST (11:56 p.m. EST).

Live coverage of the Tempel 1 encounter will begin at 8:30 p.m. PST on Feb. 14 on NASA Television and the agency's website. The coverage will include live commentary from mission control at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and video from Lockheed Martin Space System's mission support area in Denver.

Live coverage of a news briefing is planned for 10 a.m. PST on Feb. 15. Scheduled participants are:
-- Ed Weiler, NASA associate administrator, Science Mission Directorate, Washington
-- Joe Veverka, Stardust-NExT principal investigator, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y.
-- Tim Larson, Stardust-NExT project manager, JPL
-- Don Brownlee, Stardust-NExT co-investigator, University of Washington, Seattle

Mission coverage schedule (all times PST and subject to change):

-- 8:30 to 10 p.m., Feb. 14: Live NASA TV commentary begins from mission control; includes coverage of closest approach and the re-establishment of contact with the spacecraft following the encounter.

-- Midnight to 1:30 a.m., Feb. 15: NASA TV commentary will chronicle the arrival and processing of the first five of 72 close-approach images the team expects to be downlinked after the encounter. The images are expected to include a close-up view of the comet's surface.

-- 10 a.m., Feb. 15: News briefing

-- Starting on Feb. 9, NASA TV will air Stardust-NExT mission animation and other video during its Video File segments. For NASA TV streaming video, scheduling and downlink information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/ntv.

-- Commentary and the news conference will also be carried live on one of JPL's Ustream channels. During events, viewers can engage in a real-time chat and submit questions to the Stardust-NExT team at: http://www.ustream.tv/user/NASAJPL2.

The public can watch a real-time animation of the Stardust-NExT comet flyby using NASA's new "Eyes on the Solar System" Web tool. JPL created this 3-D environment, which allows people to explore the solar system from their computers. It is available at: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/eyes.

This flyby of Tempel 1 will give scientists an opportunity to look for changes on the comet's surface since it was visited by NASA's Deep Impact spacecraft in July 2005. Since then, Tempel 1 has completed one orbit of the sun, and scientists are looking forward to monitoring any differences in the comet.

During its 12 years in space, Stardust became the first spacecraft to collect samples of a comet (Wild 2 in 2004), which were delivered to Earth in 2006 for study. The Stardust-NExT mission is managed by JPL for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Lockheed Martin Space Systems in Denver built the spacecraft and manages day-to-day mission operations.

A press kit and other detailed information about Stardust-NExT is available at: http://stardustnext.jpl.nasa.gov.

Link: JPL News Release ("NASA Hosting Events for Valentine's Night Comet Encounter")

Link: JPL News Release ("Heading Into the Bonus Round – in Space")

JPL News Release: "NASA's NEOWISE Completes Scan for Asteroids and Comets"

2011-02-11T22:45:00.000-05:00

Comets WISE -- A Family Portrait. Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/UCLA

From the JPL news release (also available is the image description)...

NASA's NEOWISE mission has completed its survey of small bodies, asteroids and comets, in our solar system. The mission's discoveries of previously unknown objects include 20 comets, more than 33,000 asteroids in the main belt between Mars and Jupiter, and 134 near-Earth objects (NEOs). The NEOs are asteroids and comets with orbits that come within 45 million kilometers (28 million miles) of Earth's path around the sun.

NEOWISE is an enhancement of the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, or WISE, mission that launched in December 2009. WISE scanned the entire celestial sky in infrared light about 1.5 times. It captured more than 2.7 million images of objects in space, ranging from faraway galaxies to asteroids and comets close to Earth.

In early October 2010, after completing its prime science mission, the spacecraft ran out of the frozen coolant that keeps its instrumentation cold. However, two of its four infrared cameras remained operational. These two channels were still useful for asteroid hunting, so NASA extended the NEOWISE portion of the WISE mission by four months, with the primary purpose of hunting for more asteroids and comets, and to finish one complete scan of the main asteroid belt.

"Even just one year of observations from the NEOWISE project has significantly increased our catalog of data on NEOs and the other small bodies of the solar systems," said Lindley Johnson, NASA's program executive for the NEO Observation Program.

Now that NEOWISE has successfully completed a full sweep of the main asteroid belt, the WISE spacecraft will go into hibernation mode and remain in polar orbit around Earth, where it could be called back into service in the future.

In addition to discovering new asteroids and comets, NEOWISE also confirmed the presence of objects in the main belt that had already been detected. In just one year, it observed about 153,000 rocky bodies out of approximately 500,000 known objects. Those include the 33,000 that NEOWISE discovered.

NEOWISE also observed known objects closer and farther to us than the main belt, including roughly 2,000 asteroids that orbit along with Jupiter, hundreds of NEOs and more than 100 comets.

These observations will be key to determining the objects' sizes and compositions. Visible-light data alone reveal how much sunlight reflects off an asteroid, whereas infrared data is much more directly related to the object's size. By combining visible and infrared measurements, astronomers also can learn about the compositions of the rocky bodies -- for example, whether they are solid or crumbly. The findings will lead to a much-improved picture of the various asteroid populations.

NEOWISE took longer to survey the whole asteroid belt than WISE took to scan the entire sky because most of the asteroids are moving in the same direction around the sun as the spacecraft moves while it orbits Earth. The spacecraft field of view had to catch up to, and lap, the movement of the asteroids in order to see them all.

"You can think of Earth and the asteroids as racehorses moving along in a track," said Amy Mainzer, the principal investigator of NEOWISE at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "We're moving along together around the sun, but the main belt asteroids are like horses on the outer part of the track. They take longer to orbit than us, so we eventually lap them."

NEOWISE data on the asteroid and comet orbits are catalogued at the NASA-funded International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center, a clearinghouse for information about all solar system bodies at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Cambridge, Mass. The science team is analyzing the infrared observations now and will publish new findings in the coming months.

When combined with WISE observations, NEOWISE data will aid in the discovery of the closest dim stars, called brown dwarfs. These observations have the potential to reveal a brown dwarf even closer to us than our closest known star, Proxima Centauri, if such an object does exist. Likewise, if there is a hidden gas-giant planet in the outer reaches of our solar system, data from WISE and NEOWISE could detect it.

The first batch of observations from the WISE mission will be available to the public and astronomical community in April.

"WISE has unearthed a mother lode of amazing sources, and we're having a great time figuring out their nature," said Edward (Ned) Wright, the principal investigator of WISE at UCLA.

JPL manages WISE for NASA's Science Mission Directorate at the agency's headquarters in Washington. The mission was competitively selected under NASA's Explorers Program, which NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., manages. The Space Dynamics Laboratory in Logan, Utah, built the science instrument, and Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. of Boulder, Colo., built the spacecraft. Science operations and data processing take place at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. JPL manages NEOWISE for NASA's Planetary Sciences Division. The mission's data processing also takes place at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center.

Link: JPL News Release ("NASA's NEOWISE Completes Scan for Asteroids and Comets")

The Onion (Fake): "Republicans Vote To Repeal Obama-Backed Bill That Would Destroy Asteroid Headed For Earth"

2011-02-02T13:42:00.000-05:00

From The Onion (a fake new story)...

WASHINGTON—In a strong rebuke of President Obama and his domestic agenda, all 242 House Republicans voted Wednesday to repeal the Asteroid Destruction and American Preservation Act, which was signed into law last year to destroy the immense asteroid currently hurtling toward Earth.

The $440 billion legislation, which would send a dozen high-thrust plasma impactor probes to shatter the massive asteroid before it strikes the planet, would affect more than 300 million Americans and is strongly opposed by the GOP.

"The voters sent us to Washington to stand up for individual liberty, not big government," Rep. Steve King (R-IA) said at a press conference. "Obama's plan would take away citizens' fundamental freedoms, forcing each of us into hastily built concrete bunkers and empowering the federal government to ration our access to food, water, and potassium iodide tablets while underground."

"We believe that the decisions of how to deal with the massive asteroid are best left to the individual," King added.

Repealing the act, which opponents have branded 'Obamastroid,' has been the cornerstone of the GOP agenda since the law's passage last August. Throughout the 2010 elections, Republican candidates claimed that the Democrats' plan to smash the space rock and shield citizens from its fragments was "a classic example of the federal government needlessly interfering in the lives of everyday Americans."

"This law is a job killer," said Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC), who argued the tax increases required to save the human species from annihilation would impose unbearably high costs on businesses. "If we sit back and do nothing, Obamastroid will result in hundreds of thousands of lost jobs, which we simply can't afford in this economy."

"And consider how much money this program will add to our already bloated deficit," Foxx continued. "Is this the legacy we want to leave our children?"

Many GOP members have also criticized the legislation for what they consider pork-barrel spending, claiming the act includes billions in "giveaways" to NASA, nonperishable food manufacturers, and pharmaceutical companies contracted to produce mass volumes of vitamin D supplements in the likely event that dust from the asteroid's impact blots out the sun for a decade.

In an effort to counter Republicans' claims, Democrats have asserted that the long-term benefits of preventing the United States from being incinerated by an explosion several billion times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb would far outweigh the initial monetary outlay.

In support of their position, Democrats have pointed to estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office that show repealing the law could result in a loss of up to $14 trillion in the nation's GDP.

"I will be the first to admit this is not a perfect bill, by any means," said Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), who has argued that the measure does not go far enough in deflecting the ensuing debris that will rain down on Earth once the asteroid has been destroyed. "But it is absolutely a bill that each and every American needs now if we want to move forward as a country."

According to political pundits, the showdown over whether to let the asteroid blast a 150-mile-wide, 20-mile-deep crater in the Earth's crust represents a potential turning point for the nation, and could completely reshape the American political landscape for many centuries to come.

"If efforts to destroy the asteroid are successfully overturned, then there will be major ramifications for both Obama and his Republican opposition, as well as the American populace at large," political scientist Alan Abramowitz said on Face The Nation Sunday. "This could have a huge impact come 2012."

With repeal rhetoric reaching a crescendo, the president used his weekly radio address Saturday to state his case for destroying the one-trillion-ton asteroid before it barrels into Earth at 60,000 miles per hour.

"I am more than willing to work with my Republican colleagues to improve the Asteroid Destruction Act," Obama said. "But let me be clear: Repeal is not an option."

"While I recognize that intelligent minds may disagree on this issue, I believe we have an obligation to prevent our citizens from having their flesh seared off in a global firestorm that transforms our planet into a broiling molten wasteland," Obama added. "I think Americans deserve better."

Link: The Onion ("Republicans Vote To Repeal Obama-Backed Bill That Would Destroy Asteroid Headed For Earth")

Upcoming Book: "Incoming!: Or, Why we should stop worrying and learn to love the Meteorite"

2011-01-25T13:56:00.002-05:00

Incoming!: Or, Why we should stop worrying and learn to love the Meteorite
Format: Kindle Edition
File Size: 2035 KB
Print Length: 288 pages
Publisher: Granta Books (January 1, 2011)
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services

Link: Amazon.com

Link: Telegraph Book Shop

Link: Article (The Guardian)

Link: Article (The Telegraph)

Open Global Community NEO Workshop - Target NEO: Providing a Resilient NEO Accessibility Program for Human Exploration Beyond LEO (22 February 2011, Washington, D.C.)

2011-01-18T15:49:00.000-05:00

From the conference website and flyer (with agenda)...

Open Global Community NEO Workshop
February 22, 2011, 8 am – 6:30pm
George Washington University
Jack Morton Auditorium
805 21 Street, NW, Washington, DC 20052

Target NEO: Providing a Resilient NEO Accessibility

Program for Human Exploration Beyond LEO

Workshop will address these questions:
Do we have adequate NEO targets for a robust, resilient, forward-looking but affordable human spaceflight program beyond LEO over the next two decades? What are the characteristics of a realistic human NEO target? Do we know enough today to proceed without a survey mission, and other precursors? Can we “afford” not to do a survey mission?

Workshop Forum and Outcome: The workshop will include, six (6) technical sessions and a broad introduction and closing session with confirmed expert-speakers. A (Q)uestion and (A)nswer period will be accommodated during each session. Following the workshop, a community expert-opinion based report will be delivered to major stakeholders for review and consideration. A request has been submitted to accommodate an initial oral report at the March 2011 Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (LPSC).

Attendees: Domestic and internationally recognized small body experts, in both the robotic and human space-flight community, to include but not limited to, small body scientists and related analytical and operational experts, mission designers, systems engineers, mission operations, safety, radiation, etc. Experts across government, academia, industry, and other organizations are encouraged to attend.

Link: Workshop website

Link: Workshop agenda

International Symposium on Asteroid Mitigation and Exploration (ISAME) (04-06 April 2011, College Station, TX USA))

2011-01-18T15:41:00.001-05:00

From the conference website...

The International Symposium on Asteroid Mitigation and Exploration, to be held in College Station, Texas, will bring together an international community of researchers and practitioners to discuss new research results, mitigation and exploration strategies, international collaboration, and public awareness. In additional to presentations from attendees, a round table will be held to discuss future international cooperation, public awareness, and public policy statements.

Dr. Simon "Pete" Worden, Director of NASA-Ames Research Center, and Bruce Betts, Director of Projects for The Planetary Society, will likely be giving keynote speeches at the symposium. There may be one other speaker. Stay tuned for updates.

Submission Policy: All papers must be submitted in English and are limited to 15 pages. Papers will be due the day of the presentation.

Link: Conference website

Link: Conference Flyer

International Space University Summer Session 2010 Student Report: "ASTRA: Asteroid Mining Technologies, Roadmap and Applications"

2011-01-13T15:24:00.000-05:00

ASTRA: Asteroid Mining Technologies, Roadmap and Applications
SSP 10 ISU, Strasbourg (France) - Student Report
Originally titled: TP Asteroid Mining

This project is an investigation of issues and solutions related to the mining of asteroids. Its focus is on mapping out the fields of physical science, engineering, life science, policy, business and social impact as they pertain to the overarching goal of establishing a mining infrastructure in space. This study culminates in a roadmap facilitating more specific work on the exploitation of near-Earth resources. Included in this investigation is the identification of what makes an asteroid a preferred candidate for mining, as well as preliminary mission concepts and legal implications. Finally, a study on the economic viability of asteroid mining affords perspective into the development of a business plan to deliver asteroidal materials such that their monetary value is preserved.

Link: Report Page

Link: Executive summary

Link: Full report

Abstract Deadline Extension for 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference (Registration Also Available)

2011-01-13T11:35:00.000-05:00

From the ESA Conference Bureau helping to organize the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference...

Abstract deadline for the 2011 IAA Planetary Defense Conference (9-12 May, Bucharest, Romania), has been extended to 28 January 2011. Authors are kindly invited to submit their abstracts by using the relevant web link posted on the conference website http://www.pdc2011.org As of today, it is also possible to register for the conference. The on-line registration form is published on the above mentioned website.

Presentation on Ad-Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense to NASA Advisory Council (January 11, 2011)

2011-01-13T11:22:00.000-05:00

Final report from the Ad-Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense to the NASA Advisory Council presented on January 11, 2011 (Co-Chairs of Task Force: Dr. Tom Jones and Mr. Rusty Schweickart). This is essentially a summary of the report developed and finalized last year.

Conclusions from the report:

- NASA has strong foundation for understanding NEO hazard and building a long-term capability to counter NEO impact threat
- NASA has 2 of 3 elements to prevent future damaging impacts: (1) Search, track, warning and (2) deep space ops capability
- Actual technology demos being studied, part of future missions
- Missing 3rd element is international readiness; NASA should lead
- To do so requires NASA to develop practical means of altering NEO orbit
- W/O search/detection of smaller NEOs; orbit alteration; lead global deflection efforts, U.S. can only evacuate & respond post-impact
- NASA should begin now to forge its NEO capacities into global example of how to shield against future impact

Link: Briefing to Ad-Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense

YouTube Video ("Apophis and NEOSSat")

2011-01-12T17:18:00.000-05:00

Short video documentary on Apophis and the Canadian in-space small satellite observatory called NEOSSAT. From the video description:

Synopsis: Apophis is the asteroid of the greatest concern to the scientific community because of the high probability it will strike Earth in the year 2036. Projects like NEOSSat look out for Near Earth Objects such as Apophis in order to track their trajectory.

Link: YouTube Video ("Apophis and NEOSSat")

Goldstone Radar Results for Asteroid 2010 JL33

2011-01-12T17:10:00.001-05:00

Preliminary Orbit of Asteroid 2010 JL33 on December 11, 2010 (Source: JPL Small-Body Database Browser Orbit Diagram)

New radar imagery for Asteroid 2010 JL33. From the video: While safely passing Earth, NASA's Goldstone Solar System Radar captured the rotation of asteroid JL33 -- an irregular, elongated object roughly 1.8 kilometers (1.1) miles wide. The video consists of 36-frames.

Link: YouTube Video ("NASA Radar Reveals Features on Asteroid")

Link: JPL Small-Body Database (2010 JL33))

Agenda of UN COPUOS Scientific and Technical Subcommittee Meeting (February 2011): NEO Related Activity

2011-01-12T17:01:00.001-05:00

The provisional agenda for the next meeting of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the United National Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) has been posted. Most NEO related activity will occur from February 14-17, 2011. Specific NEO activities include the following:

Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space
Scientific and Technical Subcommittee
Forty-eighth session
Vienna, 7-18 February 2011

Provisional agenda

11. Near-Earth objects

In paragraph 7 of its resolution 65/97, the General Assembly agreed that the Subcommittee should reconvene its Working Group on Near-Earth Objects. The Working Group will continue the work begun during the intersessional period on seeking agreement on the draft international procedures for handling the NearEarth object (NEO) threat and engage international stakeholders, as well as review progress on international cooperation and collaboration on NEO observations and on the capability for the exchange, processing, archiving and dissemination of data for the purpose of detecting NEO threats.

The Subcommittee will have before it a report containing information on research in the field of near-Earth objects carried out by member States, international organizations and other entities (A/AC.105/976) and the interim report of the Action Team on Near-Earth Objects (2010-2011) (A/AC.105/C.1/L.308

Link: Agenda (English, PDF)

YouTube Video ("Extraterrestrial Prospecting")

2011-01-12T17:00:00.014-05:00

Several presentations from the 2010 Space Studies Institute Conference (29-31 October 2010) on asteroid mining (recorded on 30 October 2010).

- Prof. Michael A'Hearn, University of Maryland, Department of Astronomy
Mining Methods for Asteroid Utilization

- Brad Blair, Space Studies Institute, and Prof. Leslie Gertsch, University of Missouri-Rolla Mining Concepts Development for Accessing Asteroid Resources

- Mark Sonter, Asteroid Enterprises Pty Ltd
Resources from Asteroids: What We Can Expect From What We Know Now

- Dr. Faith Vilas, University of Arizona, Department of Astronomy and Steward Observatory

Link: YouTube Video ("Extraterrestrial Prospecting")

Comet Elenin (C/2010 X1)

2011-01-11T12:01:00.001-05:00

Preliminary Orbit of Comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin) on October 14, 2011 (Source: JPL Small-Body Database Browser Orbit Diagram)

From Wikipedia on Comet C/2010 X1...

Comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin) is a long-period comet discovered by Russian astronomer Leonid Elenin on December 10, 2010 at International Scientific Optical Network's robotic observatory near Mayhill, New Mexico, U.S.A. C/2010 X1 has pretty small perihelion distance - about 0.44 AU. This relatively bright comet can reach 8th magnitude on September-October 2011.

From a posting on spaceobs.org...

From new observations of Comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin), the Minor Planet Center has published new orbital parameters. There has been a fundamental change; instead of a perihelion near Jupiter’s orbit, the comet will have an aphelion at Mercury’s orbit! Of course the new comet does not belong to the class of sungrazing comets, but it will be visible in images from the coronagraph installed on the space observatory SOHO.

C/2010 X1 comes within 0.03 a.u. (4.5 million km) of the Earth’s orbit, but only ~0.4 a.u. from the planet itself – not at all threatening to us.

The comet will increase its brightness; in August of 2011 it will be mag. 6-8. By the end of the month and throughout September the comet will be hidden from earthly observers in the rays of the Sun, but it will be easily visible in images from the cosmic coronagraph. At that time the comet’s brightness will be at maximum – about mag. 3-4 (although with passage so close to the Sun anything can be expected). By the way, at that time the comet will again be at the same equatorial coordinates where it was discovered in December of 2010.

Beginning in October, the comet will again become visible for observations from Earth; at that time its brightness will be magnitude 4-5, i.e. the comet will be visible to the unaided eye far from large cities. Visibility conditions from northern latitudes will be favorable – the tailed guest will climb into the northern sky. After that, C/2010 X1 will slowly become fainter and move away from the Earth. By the beginning of 2012 its brightness will be around mag. 11-12.

Link: Article (C/2010 X1 – A Bright Comet of 2011)

Link: Sky and Telescope Article

Link: JPL Information

Dr. John Lewis on the Space Show (Friday, January 14, 2011 , 9:30-11 AM PST)

2011-01-11T11:56:00.001-05:00

The Space Show will have Dr. John S. Lewis on this Friday, 14 January 2011.

Friday, January 14, 2011 , 9:30-11 AM PST: We welcome Dr. John Lewis to the program. John S. Lewis is Professor Emeritus of Planetary Sciences and Co-Director of the Space Engineering Research Center at the University of Arizona. He is a regular commentator on Chinese civil space missions on China Central Television CCTV9, Including the Shenzhou 6 & 7 manned missions and the Chang’e 1 & 2 lunar missions. Dr. Lewis is the author of the best selling book, “Mining the Sky: Untold Riches from the Asteroids, Comets, and Planets.”

Link: The Space Show

2011 Asteroid/Comet Book Update

2011-01-04T17:29:00.015-05:00

Updates on new books on the subjects of asteroids, comets, and planetary defense. These works include newly released paperback versions of existing hardcover books. A new paperback version of the "classic" overview text on planetary defense entitled "Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids" will be available around March 2011. There are multiple new hardcover and reissued titles in softcover coming out from Springer. Here are some additional books that are and will be available:

Asteroids and Dwarf Planets and How to Observe Them (Astronomers' Observing Guides) [Paperback]
Roger Dymock (Author)
Publisher: Springer; 1st Edition. edition (November 1, 2010)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

Hunting and Imaging Comets (Patrick Moore's Practical Astronomy Series) [Paperback]
Martin Mobberley (Author)
Publisher: Springer; 1st Edition. edition (October 11, 2010)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

The Doomsday Lobby: Hype and Panic from Sputniks, Martians, and Marauding Meteors [Paperback]
James T. Bennett (Author)
Publisher: Springer; 1st Edition. edition (September 30, 2010)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

Orbital Motion in Strongly Perturbed Environments: Applications to Asteroid and Comet Orbiters (Springer Praxis Books / Astronautical Engineering) [Hardcover]
Daniel J. Scheeres (Author)
Publisher: Springer; 1st Edition. edition (May 3, 2011)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids [Paperback]
Michael J. S. Belton (Editor), Thomas H. Morgan (Editor), Nalin H. Samarasinha (Editor), Donald K. Yeomans (Editor)
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (March 3, 2011)\
Link: Cambridge University Press.com
Link: Amazon.com

Habitability and Cosmic Catastrophes (Advances in Astrobiology and Biogeophysics) [Paperback]
Arnold Hanslmeier (Author)
Publisher: Springer (December 16, 2010)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

Catastrophic Events Caused by Cosmic Objects [Paperback]
Vitaly Adushkin (Editor), Ivan Nemchinov (Editor)
Publisher: Springer; 1st Edition. edition (November 19, 2010)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

Dynamics of Comets and Asteroids and Their Role in Earth History [Paperback]
Shin Yabushita (Editor), Jacques Henrard (Editor)
Publisher: Springer (November 19, 2010)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach [Paperback]
Peter T. Bobrowsky (Editor), Hans Rickman (Editor)
Publisher: Springer; 1st Edition. edition (November 19, 2010)
Link: Springer.com
Link: Amazon.com

Meteoritics & Planetary Science: October/November 2010 (Multiple Articles on Asteroid 2008 TC3 and Output Science Results)

2011-01-04T13:28:00.007-05:00

The October/November 2010 (Volume 45, Issue 10-11, Pages 1553–1845) issue of the journal Meteoritics & Planetary Science has multiple articles on the recovered asteroid 2008 TC3. A NASA Goddard press release a contains more information on the implications of some of the science results, specifically on finding amino acids in samples of the 2008 TC3 asteroid.

A summary of the recovery of 2008TC3 follows from one of the journal articles:

On October 7, 2008, asteroid 2008 TC3 impacted Earth and fragmented at 37 km altitude above the Nubian Desert in northern Sudan. The area surrounding the asteroid’s approach path was searched, resulting in the first recovery of meteorites from an asteroid observed in space. This was also the first recovery of remains from a fragile “cometary” PE = IIIa/b type fireball. In subsequent searches, over 600 mostly small 0.2–379 g meteorites (named “Almahata Sitta”) with a total mass 10.7 kg were recovered from a 30 × 7 km area. Meteorites fell along the track at 1.3 kg km−1, nearly independent of mass between 1 and 400 g, with a total fallen mass of 39 ± 6 kg. The strewn field was shifted nearly 1.8 km south from the calculated approach path. The influence of winds on the distribution of the meteorites, and on the motion of the dust train, is investigated. The majority of meteorites are ureilites with densities around 2.8 g cm−3, some of an anomalous (porous, high in carbon) polymict ureilite variety with densities as low as 1.5 g cm−3. In addition, an estimated 20–30% (in mass) of recovered meteorites were ordinary, enstatite, and carbonaceous chondrites. Their fresh look and matching distribution of fragments in the strewn field imply that they were part of 2008 TC3. For that reason, they are all referred to as “Almahata Sitta.” No ureilite meteorites were found that still held foreign clasts, suggesting that the asteroid’s clasts were only loosely bound.

Source: The recovery of asteroid 2008 TC3, Muawia H. SHADDAD1, Peter JENNISKENS2,*, Diyaa NUMAN1, Ayman M. KUDODA1, Saadia ELSIR3, Ihab F. RIYAD1, Awad Elkareem ALI4, Mohammed ALAMEEN1, Nada M. ALAMEEN1, Omer EID1, Ahmed T. OSMAN1, Mohamed I. AbuBAKER1, Mohamed YOUSIF1, Steven R. CHESLEY5, Paul W. CHODAS5, Jim ALBERS2, Wayne N. EDWARDS6,7, Peter G. BROWN6, Jacob KUIPER8, Jon M. FRIEDRICH9,10, Article first published online: 14 DEC 2010, Meteoritics & Planetary Science
Volume 45, Issue 10-11, pages 1557–1589, October/November 2010.

Selections from a National Geographic article on some of the research presented in the journal follow:

Hot on the heels of finding arsenic-loving life-forms, NASA astronomers have uncovered amino acids—the fundamental foundation for life—in a place where they shouldn't be.

The acids—precursors of proteins—have been unexpectedly found inside fragments of previously superheated meteorites that landed in northern Sudan in 2008, a new study says.

Amino acids have already been found in a variety of carbon-rich meteorites formed under relatively cool conditions. (See asteroid and comet pictures.)

But this is the first time the substances have been found in meteorites that had been naturally heated to 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit (1,100 degrees Celsius). That extreme temperature which should have destroyed any hint of organic material inside, said study leader Daniel Glavin, an astrobiologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.

"Previously, we thought the simplest way to make amino acids in an asteroid was at cooler temperatures in the presence of liquid water," Glavin said in a statement. "This meteorite suggests there's another way involving reactions in gases as a very hot asteroid cools down."

The discovery also "provides additional support for the theory that life's ingredients were delivered to the Earth by asteroids," he said.

The meteorites came from a 13-foot-wide (4-meter-wide) parent asteroid that entered an Earth-crossing orbit in 2008.

A collision about 15 million years ago sent the 59-ton asteroid closer to Earth—and provided scientists the first opportunity to observe a celestial object before it entered our atmosphere in October 2008.

During desert treks, scientists later recovered nearly 600 meteorite fragments from the meteor shower.

"Finding evidence for the extraterrestrial amino acids in this meteorite is a big deal," Glavin said, "since we can learn about the chemistry that took place in space prior to the origin of life on Earth."

Likewise, "these meteorites would have contributed to the amino acid inventory of the early Earth and other planets in our solar system, including Mars."

This may mean that organic compounds such as amino acids—delivered via asteroids—may have been much more pervasive throughout the solar system than thought, he said.

Link: Meteoritics & Planetary Science, October/November 2010, Volume 45, Issue 10-11, Pages 1553–1845

Link: NASA Goddard Press Release ("Building Blocks of Life Created in "Impossible" Place")

Link: Article ("Life Ingredients Found in Superhot Meteorites—A First")

Link: Astrobiology Magazine Article ("More than One Way to Make Amino Acids")

Full-Time Employment Opportunity and Full-Time Summer Internship Positions at SpaceWorks Commercial

2011-01-04T00:37:00.000-05:00

SpaceWorks Commercial, a division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI), and located in Washington, D.C. office has an opening for a Commercial Space Systems Analyst. For more information please see the following or the PDF file (also contains information on our full-time summer student intern position):
http://www.sei.aero/employment/index.html

Commercial Space Systems Analyst
Position ID: SEI-C1
Experience Level: 0 – 5 years
Type: Full-time, Salaried
Location: Washington, DC
Salary Range: $60,000 - $75,000, depending on qualifications

SpaceWorks Commercial seeks an entry-level space systems analyst to help perform economic and technical analysis for external clients (domestic and international) and for internal initiatives. Familiarity with economic analysis, financial modeling, database development, and aerospace markets is desired. Sample markets that would be analyzed include: small payload orbital launch, sub-orbital/orbital space tourism, commercial remote sensing, commercial telecommunications, commercial transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS), reusable launch vehicles (RLVs), reentry systems, space solar power, propellant depots, high speed global cargo delivery, etc. A degree in business, economics, space policy, aerospace engineering, systems engineering, or a related field is preferred. For this position, please apply directly to commercial@sei.aero.

Commercial Space Analysis Intern
Position ID: SEI-C Intern
Experience Level: Undergraduate or Graduate Student
Type: Summer 2011 Semester
Location: Washington, DC
Salary Range: $16/hour - $22/hour, depending on qualifications and academic standing

SpaceWorks Commercial seeks applicants for a summer internship in Washington, DC. The applicant should be, at a minimum, on the path to obtaining a B.A., B.S., M.S., or M.B.A. in engineering, economics/finance, business, or a policy-related field. The successful applicant should be familiar or have an interest in commercial and policy aspects of space development including financing/economic modeling/market forecasting. Candidates should be highly motivated, possess good communication skills, be comfortable with quantitative modeling, and have a passion for space exploration and space economics. Minimum GPA of 3.0 on a 4.0 scale please. U.S. citizenship is preferred for SEI-C internship positions. However, SpaceWorks Commercial is open to hiring foreign national students studying in the U.S. for available full-time internships under the Curricular Practical Training (CPT) program for those with an F-1 student visa. Please note the requirements of each announcement before applying. For those applicants that seek to also obtain academic credit for their internship, SpaceWorks Commercial reserves the right to reduce the hourly salary offered accordingly. Please notify SpaceWorks Commercial when you apply if you will also be seeking academic credit for the internship. Application deadline for applying for this position is March 4, 2011. For this position, please apply directly with an introductory email, cover letter, and current resume to commercial@sei.aero.

Please pass this announcement on to any interested parties. Thank you.

Link: SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) Employment Page

Link: SpaceWorks Commercial Hiring Flyer (January 2011)