Updates from NASA on the Near Earth Object (NEO) Workshop
- NASA will continue to accept abstract submissions for the Workshop through NSPIRES until June 2nd, 2006. Priority will be given to those abstracts submitted by the original date.
- The NASA NEO Workshop will be held in Vail (CO) from June 26 through June 29, 2006.
Link
22 May 2006
Another Article on Slight Threat Reduction of Apophis
"Before this observation, it was thought that in 2029 Apophis would approach our planet to within about 5.86 Earth radii. With these new measurements, the estimated distance has been pushed back to 5.93 Earth radii."
"In January, Tholen [Dave Tholen, astronomer, University of Hawaii, US] and his team plan to observe Apophis to determine its rotation rate. This is important because if the asteroid is heated unevenly by sunlight, the radiation can impart a small force on the asteroid. That force may be miniscule, but when it accumulates over 20 years, it can make the difference in whether Apophis passes through the keyhole or not, he says."
"Risk of asteroid smashing into Earth reduced"
Kelly Young
NewScientist.com
22 May 2006
Link
"In January, Tholen [Dave Tholen, astronomer, University of Hawaii, US] and his team plan to observe Apophis to determine its rotation rate. This is important because if the asteroid is heated unevenly by sunlight, the radiation can impart a small force on the asteroid. That force may be miniscule, but when it accumulates over 20 years, it can make the difference in whether Apophis passes through the keyhole or not, he says."
"Risk of asteroid smashing into Earth reduced"
Kelly Young
NewScientist.com
22 May 2006
Link
19 May 2006
Possible Reduction of Threat from Apophis in 2036
New Arecibo radar data has allowed better calculations of the trajectory of Apophis. Cumulative probability of impact (from JPL NEOPO Sentry Assessment) changed from 1.6e-04 (on 14 April 2006) to 4.4e-05 (on 18 May 2006). I have quoted multiple sections from a recent article below:
The chances of collision with the asteroid Apophis in 2036 now stand at 1 in 24,000, said Steve Chesley, an expert on near-Earth objects at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. That's a significant advance from the previous orbital predictions, which set the odds of impact at 1 out of about 6,000.
The May 6-7 window for radar observations represented the best opportunity until the end of 2012. Jon Giorgini, a senior analyst for the Solar Systems Dynamics Group at JPL, said the Arecibo team got a good fix on Apophis. "We were able to improve our understanding of its motion by about 6 millimeters per second," Giorgini.
Previously, NASA had said that no more observations could be made until 2013. But on Thursday, Chesley said more may be known before then. "Actually, we're going to probably get some observations, though they'll be difficult to obtain — maybe by next spring," he said. Astronomers at the Mauna Kea Observatory in Hawaii could spot the asteroid in 2007 as well as in 2011, he said.
In the 2012-2013 time frame, Arecibo could come into play again. Giorgini said those observations would be even more accurate because Apophis would come within 8.3 million miles (13 million kilometers) of Earth — much closer than this month's pass at a distance of 26 million miles (42 million kilometers).
"Asteroid risk to Earth lowered, scientists say: Chances of impact move ‘in right direction,’ toward odds of 1-in-24,000"
Alan Boyle
Science editor
MSNBC
18 May 2006
Link: MSNBC Article
"99942 Apophis No Longer a Threat for 2036"
18 May 2006
Link: About.com
The chances of collision with the asteroid Apophis in 2036 now stand at 1 in 24,000, said Steve Chesley, an expert on near-Earth objects at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. That's a significant advance from the previous orbital predictions, which set the odds of impact at 1 out of about 6,000.
The May 6-7 window for radar observations represented the best opportunity until the end of 2012. Jon Giorgini, a senior analyst for the Solar Systems Dynamics Group at JPL, said the Arecibo team got a good fix on Apophis. "We were able to improve our understanding of its motion by about 6 millimeters per second," Giorgini.
Previously, NASA had said that no more observations could be made until 2013. But on Thursday, Chesley said more may be known before then. "Actually, we're going to probably get some observations, though they'll be difficult to obtain — maybe by next spring," he said. Astronomers at the Mauna Kea Observatory in Hawaii could spot the asteroid in 2007 as well as in 2011, he said.
In the 2012-2013 time frame, Arecibo could come into play again. Giorgini said those observations would be even more accurate because Apophis would come within 8.3 million miles (13 million kilometers) of Earth — much closer than this month's pass at a distance of 26 million miles (42 million kilometers).
"Asteroid risk to Earth lowered, scientists say: Chances of impact move ‘in right direction,’ toward odds of 1-in-24,000"
Alan Boyle
Science editor
MSNBC
18 May 2006
Link: MSNBC Article
"99942 Apophis No Longer a Threat for 2036"
18 May 2006
Link: About.com
17 May 2006
Article on Upcoming NEO Workshop
NASA Authorization Act of 2005 includes the following (passed by Congress late in 2005, and signed by the President):
"The U.S. Congress has declared that the general welfare and security of the United States require that the unique competence of NASA be directed to detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and characterizing near-Earth asteroids and comets in order to provide warning and mitigation of the potential hazard of such near-Earth objects to the Earth,"
Now comes a new, four day workshop on NEO mitigation threats to engage experts. Hosted by ASA’s Office of Program Analysis & Evaluation, this workship in late June/early July is to examine:
- Detection, Tracking and Cataloging NEOs
- Characterization of NEOs, and
- Deflection or other forms of NEO Threat Mitigation
"NASA to Look into NEO Threat Response Proposals"
Leonard David
Space.com
16 May 2006
Link
"The U.S. Congress has declared that the general welfare and security of the United States require that the unique competence of NASA be directed to detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and characterizing near-Earth asteroids and comets in order to provide warning and mitigation of the potential hazard of such near-Earth objects to the Earth,"
Now comes a new, four day workshop on NEO mitigation threats to engage experts. Hosted by ASA’s Office of Program Analysis & Evaluation, this workship in late June/early July is to examine:
- Detection, Tracking and Cataloging NEOs
- Characterization of NEOs, and
- Deflection or other forms of NEO Threat Mitigation
"NASA to Look into NEO Threat Response Proposals"
Leonard David
Space.com
16 May 2006
Link
15 May 2006
ISDC 2006 Presentation from Rusty Schweickart (B612 Foundation
"NEOs: The Katrinas of the Cosmos"
Presentation to the International Space Development Conference
6 May 2005
Russell Schweickart
Link: ISDC 2006 Paper
Presentation to the International Space Development Conference
6 May 2005
Russell Schweickart
Link: ISDC 2006 Paper
Article on Current NEO Threat Situation
"Certainly we had a major credibility problem at the beginning - a giggle factor," said David Morrison, an astrobiologist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, Calif. "Now, many people are aware this is something we can actually deal with, mitigate and defend against."
In 1998, lawmakers formally directed NASA to identify by 2008 at least 90 percent of the asteroids more than a kilometer (0.6 mile) wide that orbit the sun and periodically cross Earth's path. That search is now more than three-quarters complete.
Last year, Congress directed the space agency to come up with options for deflecting potential threats. Ideas seriously discussed include lasers on the moon, futuristic "gravity tractors," spacecraft that ram incoming objects and Hollywood's old standby, nuclear weapons.
To help explore possible alternatives, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart has formed the B612 Foundation. The organization's goal is to be able to significantly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a controlled manner by 2015.
"You can watch all of the golf on television you want, but if you want to go out and break par, it's going to take a lot of playing," Schweickart said. "And you're going to learn a lot that you thought you knew, but you didn't."
Congress directed NASA in December to look at expanding the search to asteroids larger than 140 meters (460 feet) in diameter and completing the new survey by 2020. Objects that size are capable of destroying a city.
"Space rock could make 2036 a killer year"
Michael Cabbag
14 May 2006
The Orlando Sentinel
Link: Orlando Sentinel
In 1998, lawmakers formally directed NASA to identify by 2008 at least 90 percent of the asteroids more than a kilometer (0.6 mile) wide that orbit the sun and periodically cross Earth's path. That search is now more than three-quarters complete.
Last year, Congress directed the space agency to come up with options for deflecting potential threats. Ideas seriously discussed include lasers on the moon, futuristic "gravity tractors," spacecraft that ram incoming objects and Hollywood's old standby, nuclear weapons.
To help explore possible alternatives, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart has formed the B612 Foundation. The organization's goal is to be able to significantly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a controlled manner by 2015.
"You can watch all of the golf on television you want, but if you want to go out and break par, it's going to take a lot of playing," Schweickart said. "And you're going to learn a lot that you thought you knew, but you didn't."
Congress directed NASA in December to look at expanding the search to asteroids larger than 140 meters (460 feet) in diameter and completing the new survey by 2020. Objects that size are capable of destroying a city.
"Space rock could make 2036 a killer year"
Michael Cabbag
14 May 2006
The Orlando Sentinel
Link: Orlando Sentinel
13 May 2006
French Idea to Hit Asteroid with Asteroid, Plus ESA ACT Calculates They Can Possibly Deflect Apophis using Small Spacecraft
Interesting article, so I have quoted several long sections below:
Various plans have been put forward to deflect incoming asteroids. For example, lasers or giant space mirrors could evaporate ices on their surfaces, creating jets that propel them away from Earth. And half-painting an asteroid could make it radiate heat differently on each side, slowly nudging the object off course.
But many of these plans require several years of advance warning in order to push the asteroids into safe orbits. If an asteroid or comet is found barrelling towards the planet with a year or less to impact, "that's a case where perhaps our only option is to attempt a big kinetic kill", says Durda.
Now, Didier Massonnet and Benoît Meyssignac of France's National Centre for Space Studies have come up with a new projectile to fire at the asteroid in such a "kill". They advocate capturing a small, 40-metre asteroid and "parking" it a stable Lagrange point 1.5 million kilometres from Earth, where the gravity of the Earth and the Sun balance.
If a larger asteroid were then found to be on a collision course with Earth, the small rock could be moved into its path within eight months, says the team. This "David's stone" would be too puny to cause any damage to Earth if things went awry, says the team. "Such an asteroid capture would be one of the most remarkable achievements of mankind," they write in Acta Astronautica.
But other experts say the plan is not realistic. It relies on using a small hopping robot to excavate rock at tens of metres per second from the little asteroid in order to provide the force to capture it and send it towards the larger rock. The capture would take a year of digging and would require the robot to remove 66% of the small rock's mass.
"To have a mechanical device work all on its own - without a person to kick it - in an essentially unknown surface environment full of dust and debris, is a very difficult thing to do technically," Durda told New Scientist.
Gerhard Hahn and Ekkehard Kührt of the German Aerospace Centre in Berlin agree. "It sounds rather like science-fiction," they told New Scientist in an email.
But Dario Izzo, an aerospace engineer at the European Space Agency's Advanced Concepts Team in The Netherlands, says the capture is technically feasible. "We can do it, but it would be really expensive," he told New Scientist.
Izzo is now working on a strategy based on ESA's plans for its Don Quijote mission. That mission is designed to put one spacecraft in orbit around an asteroid to watch as another is sent crashing into it. Don Quijote will be a technology demonstration mission, but Izzo's team has been working on ways to use just an impactor spacecraft to deflect a dangerous asteroid.
As a test case, the team used the orbital parameters of Apophis, a 400-metre-wide asteroid that will pass by Earth in 2029. During that pass, it may change course enough to hit Earth when it returns again in 2036 - a possibility that now has a one in 5000 chance of happening.
The team developed formulae to find out how much Apophis could be deflected by a 700 kilogram (1540 pound) spacecraft. "We found there are loads of trajectories, of launch windows, that would allow us to obtain a deflection," Izzo says. If a spacecraft were to launch by 2026, it could hit Apophis and change its speed by 0.01 millimetres per second – a tiny change, but enough to prevent it from colliding with Earth a decade later, he says.
"Taking out a killer asteroid – with a tame one"
Maggie McKee
NewScientist
26 April 2006
Link: Article
Various plans have been put forward to deflect incoming asteroids. For example, lasers or giant space mirrors could evaporate ices on their surfaces, creating jets that propel them away from Earth. And half-painting an asteroid could make it radiate heat differently on each side, slowly nudging the object off course.
But many of these plans require several years of advance warning in order to push the asteroids into safe orbits. If an asteroid or comet is found barrelling towards the planet with a year or less to impact, "that's a case where perhaps our only option is to attempt a big kinetic kill", says Durda.
Now, Didier Massonnet and Benoît Meyssignac of France's National Centre for Space Studies have come up with a new projectile to fire at the asteroid in such a "kill". They advocate capturing a small, 40-metre asteroid and "parking" it a stable Lagrange point 1.5 million kilometres from Earth, where the gravity of the Earth and the Sun balance.
If a larger asteroid were then found to be on a collision course with Earth, the small rock could be moved into its path within eight months, says the team. This "David's stone" would be too puny to cause any damage to Earth if things went awry, says the team. "Such an asteroid capture would be one of the most remarkable achievements of mankind," they write in Acta Astronautica.
But other experts say the plan is not realistic. It relies on using a small hopping robot to excavate rock at tens of metres per second from the little asteroid in order to provide the force to capture it and send it towards the larger rock. The capture would take a year of digging and would require the robot to remove 66% of the small rock's mass.
"To have a mechanical device work all on its own - without a person to kick it - in an essentially unknown surface environment full of dust and debris, is a very difficult thing to do technically," Durda told New Scientist.
Gerhard Hahn and Ekkehard Kührt of the German Aerospace Centre in Berlin agree. "It sounds rather like science-fiction," they told New Scientist in an email.
But Dario Izzo, an aerospace engineer at the European Space Agency's Advanced Concepts Team in The Netherlands, says the capture is technically feasible. "We can do it, but it would be really expensive," he told New Scientist.
Izzo is now working on a strategy based on ESA's plans for its Don Quijote mission. That mission is designed to put one spacecraft in orbit around an asteroid to watch as another is sent crashing into it. Don Quijote will be a technology demonstration mission, but Izzo's team has been working on ways to use just an impactor spacecraft to deflect a dangerous asteroid.
As a test case, the team used the orbital parameters of Apophis, a 400-metre-wide asteroid that will pass by Earth in 2029. During that pass, it may change course enough to hit Earth when it returns again in 2036 - a possibility that now has a one in 5000 chance of happening.
The team developed formulae to find out how much Apophis could be deflected by a 700 kilogram (1540 pound) spacecraft. "We found there are loads of trajectories, of launch windows, that would allow us to obtain a deflection," Izzo says. If a spacecraft were to launch by 2026, it could hit Apophis and change its speed by 0.01 millimetres per second – a tiny change, but enough to prevent it from colliding with Earth a decade later, he says.
"Taking out a killer asteroid – with a tame one"
Maggie McKee
NewScientist
26 April 2006
Link: Article
New Journal Article on Tsunami Risk from Asteroid Impact
"Tsunamis triggered by asteroid impacts cause a disaster similar to the 2004 Asian tsunami once every 6000 years on average, according to the first detailed analysis of their effects."
"For example, the model shows that waves radiating from the impact of a 300-metre-wide asteroid would carry 300 times more energy than the 2004 Asian tsunami. You can view movies of impact simulations in the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Pacific (all in .mov format).
"The most common asteroids, between 100 m and 400 m, would yield tsunami waves up to 10 m when they arrived at the coast. A total of about 50 million coastal residents are vulnerable to such waves, though no single impact would affect them all. The researchers predict a tsunami-generating impact should occur about once every 6000 years, and would on average affect over one million people and cause $110 billion in property damage."
"The study also showed that asteroid impacts in the 300-metre class might be similar to the huge tsunamis thrown up when massive chunks of rock break from the sides of volcanoes and fall into the ocean. These events are also thought to occur roughly once every 6000 years."
"The analysis confirms suspicions that tsunamis are the biggest risk posed by asteroid impacts. The risks from climate effects of big impacts – through dust and smoke that blocks out the Sun – are about two-thirds that of tsunamis, while those of land impacts are about one-third of the tsunami risk."
"Tsunami risk of asteroid strikes revealed"
Jeff Hecht
NewScientist.com
12 May 2006
Link: Article
Natural Hazards
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Issue: Volume 38, Number 3
Date: July 2006
Link: "Natural Hazards" Journal
Simulations of Impact
Source:
Steven N. Ward
Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
University of California, Santa Cruz
Link: Simulations
"For example, the model shows that waves radiating from the impact of a 300-metre-wide asteroid would carry 300 times more energy than the 2004 Asian tsunami. You can view movies of impact simulations in the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Pacific (all in .mov format).
"The most common asteroids, between 100 m and 400 m, would yield tsunami waves up to 10 m when they arrived at the coast. A total of about 50 million coastal residents are vulnerable to such waves, though no single impact would affect them all. The researchers predict a tsunami-generating impact should occur about once every 6000 years, and would on average affect over one million people and cause $110 billion in property damage."
"The study also showed that asteroid impacts in the 300-metre class might be similar to the huge tsunamis thrown up when massive chunks of rock break from the sides of volcanoes and fall into the ocean. These events are also thought to occur roughly once every 6000 years."
"The analysis confirms suspicions that tsunamis are the biggest risk posed by asteroid impacts. The risks from climate effects of big impacts – through dust and smoke that blocks out the Sun – are about two-thirds that of tsunamis, while those of land impacts are about one-third of the tsunami risk."
"Tsunami risk of asteroid strikes revealed"
Jeff Hecht
NewScientist.com
12 May 2006
Link: Article
Natural Hazards
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Issue: Volume 38, Number 3
Date: July 2006
Link: "Natural Hazards" Journal
Simulations of Impact
Source:
Steven N. Ward
Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
University of California, Santa Cruz
Link: Simulations
12 May 2006
NASA Workshop on NEO Detection, Characterization and Threat Mitigation: Call for Papers
NASA Headquarters
NASA Research Announcement
Call For Papers: Near-Earth Object Detection, Characterization, and Threat Mitigation
Solicitation: NNH06ZAE001R
NASA is pleased to announce a Call for Papers for a workshop on Near-Earth Object (NEO) Detection, Characterization and Threat Mitigation to be held at a site to be announced. This workshop is being held in support of NASA's Office of Program Analysis & Evaluation (PA&E) study in response to congressional direction:
- Chartering NASA to detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and characterizing near-Earth objects in order to provide warning and mitigation of their potential hazard,
- Authorizing NASA to plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program,
- And directing NASA to study possible alternatives to carry out the survey program and to divert an object on a likely collision course with Earth, and to report back to Congress with a recommendation on these alternatives recommended survey program.
Key Dates:
- Abstract submissions due May 26, 2006 by 11:59pm E.D.T.
- Author Invitation to attend workshop by June 7, 2006.
- White paper submissions (invitation only) due by June 25, 2006.
- Workshop location and dates to be determined (late June-July time frame).
Link
NASA Research Announcement
Call For Papers: Near-Earth Object Detection, Characterization, and Threat Mitigation
Solicitation: NNH06ZAE001R
NASA is pleased to announce a Call for Papers for a workshop on Near-Earth Object (NEO) Detection, Characterization and Threat Mitigation to be held at a site to be announced. This workshop is being held in support of NASA's Office of Program Analysis & Evaluation (PA&E) study in response to congressional direction:
- Chartering NASA to detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and characterizing near-Earth objects in order to provide warning and mitigation of their potential hazard,
- Authorizing NASA to plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program,
- And directing NASA to study possible alternatives to carry out the survey program and to divert an object on a likely collision course with Earth, and to report back to Congress with a recommendation on these alternatives recommended survey program.
Key Dates:
- Abstract submissions due May 26, 2006 by 11:59pm E.D.T.
- Author Invitation to attend workshop by June 7, 2006.
- White paper submissions (invitation only) due by June 25, 2006.
- Workshop location and dates to be determined (late June-July time frame).
Link
Article on ISDC Presentation from Rusty Schweickart
“Remember, we’re dealing here with a less frequent, but far more devastating Katrina … a Katrina of the Cosmos,” Schweickart reported. “NEOs happen so infrequently that even though they are orders of magnitude more devastating, people don’t naturally make that match,” he told SPACE.com, “but you don’t want to be caught with your pants down.”
At present, the two asteroids on that “keep an eye on them roster” are 2004 VD17 and Apophis, formerly listed as 2004 MN4.
“Extrapolating to 2018 we may have as many as 200 in a similarly elevated attention category and of growing concern to the general public,” Schweickart reported today. “Therefore, it is certainly possible, if not likely, that in the timeframe of the next 12 years we—the world—may well be in a position where we need to take action to insure that we will be able to carry out a deflection mission if needed,” he said.
The Association of Space Explorers (ASE)—the professional organization of astronauts and cosmonauts—has formed a committee on NEOs which Schweickart chairs. Earlier this year, a technical presentation at a UN meeting in Vienna apprised them that this issue was coming at them.
While the UN has been brought the problem, Schweickart said, the ASE is committed to bringing them a solution. This solution will take the form of a draft United Nations treaty—or protocol—formulated in a series of workshops over the next two years.
“In these NEO Deflection Policy workshops we will gather together a dozen or so international experts in diplomacy, international law, insurance, and risk management, as well as space expertise to identify and wrestle with these difficult international issues,” Schweickart noted. “Our goal is to return to the UN in 2009 with a draft NEO Deflection Decision Protocol and present it to them for their consideration and deliberation.”
"Earth-Hitting Asteroids: Katrina From Space"
Leonard David
National Space Society
06 May 2006
Link
At present, the two asteroids on that “keep an eye on them roster” are 2004 VD17 and Apophis, formerly listed as 2004 MN4.
“Extrapolating to 2018 we may have as many as 200 in a similarly elevated attention category and of growing concern to the general public,” Schweickart reported today. “Therefore, it is certainly possible, if not likely, that in the timeframe of the next 12 years we—the world—may well be in a position where we need to take action to insure that we will be able to carry out a deflection mission if needed,” he said.
The Association of Space Explorers (ASE)—the professional organization of astronauts and cosmonauts—has formed a committee on NEOs which Schweickart chairs. Earlier this year, a technical presentation at a UN meeting in Vienna apprised them that this issue was coming at them.
While the UN has been brought the problem, Schweickart said, the ASE is committed to bringing them a solution. This solution will take the form of a draft United Nations treaty—or protocol—formulated in a series of workshops over the next two years.
“In these NEO Deflection Policy workshops we will gather together a dozen or so international experts in diplomacy, international law, insurance, and risk management, as well as space expertise to identify and wrestle with these difficult international issues,” Schweickart noted. “Our goal is to return to the UN in 2009 with a draft NEO Deflection Decision Protocol and present it to them for their consideration and deliberation.”
"Earth-Hitting Asteroids: Katrina From Space"
Leonard David
National Space Society
06 May 2006
Link
03 May 2006
New Possible Object of Interest: 2006 HZ51
"A newly discovered asteroid is now the biggest thing known with a possibility of hitting the Earth in this century – and it is also the one that could hit the soonest."
"But the odds of impact currently stand at just one in six million, reducing the fear factor somewhat, and these odds should further diminish with additional observations. This latest addition to NASA-JPL's list of potentially hazardous asteroids was discovered on 27 April 2006."
"The asteroid, called 2006 HZ51, has an estimated diameter of about 800 metres and is the one of the largest objects ever to make the list. An object of that size would cause widespread devastation if it did strike the Earth."
"HZ51 also has one of the shortest lead-times to a potential impact of any such object yet found, and the shortest of any potential Earth-impactor currently on the list. The earliest of its 165 possible impact dates is just over two years away, on 21 June 2008."
"As for the newfound 2006 HZ51, the orbit calculations so far are based on just over 24 hours of observations, and so are likely to change quickly and should not be seen as a serious concern."
"Big new asteroid has slim chance of hitting Earth"
David Chandler
02 May 2006
New Scientist
Link: New Scientist Article
Link: JPL Near Earth Objects Page on 2006 HZ1
"But the odds of impact currently stand at just one in six million, reducing the fear factor somewhat, and these odds should further diminish with additional observations. This latest addition to NASA-JPL's list of potentially hazardous asteroids was discovered on 27 April 2006."
"The asteroid, called 2006 HZ51, has an estimated diameter of about 800 metres and is the one of the largest objects ever to make the list. An object of that size would cause widespread devastation if it did strike the Earth."
"HZ51 also has one of the shortest lead-times to a potential impact of any such object yet found, and the shortest of any potential Earth-impactor currently on the list. The earliest of its 165 possible impact dates is just over two years away, on 21 June 2008."
"As for the newfound 2006 HZ51, the orbit calculations so far are based on just over 24 hours of observations, and so are likely to change quickly and should not be seen as a serious concern."
"Big new asteroid has slim chance of hitting Earth"
David Chandler
02 May 2006
New Scientist
Link: New Scientist Article
Link: JPL Near Earth Objects Page on 2006 HZ1
01 May 2006
Remember this Movie?: "Meteor" (1979)
I recently was reminded of this movie. Before the "Deep Impact" and "Armageddon" movies, came this cold-war based thriller/action movie. This movie had a very long cast list including Sean Connery, Natalie Wood, Karl Malden, Brian Keith, Martin Landau, Trevor Howard, Richard Dysart, and Henry Fonda (as the President of the United States, of course). Note: the actual movie premiere took place on the floor of Meteor Crater in Arizona.
From IMDB:
"After a collision with a comet, a nearly 8km wide piece of the asteroid "Orpheus" is heading towards Earth. If it will hit it will cause a incredible catastrophe which will probably extinguish mankind. To stop the meteor NASA wants to use the illegal nuclear weapon satellite "Hercules" but discovers soon that it doesn't have enough fire power. Their only chance to save the world is to join forces with the USSR who have also launched such an illegal satellite. But will both governments agree?"
Link: IMDB
Link: Wikipedia
Link: Amazon
Recent Article Reviewing Russian Thinking on Asteroid Mitigation
Recent article reviewing Russian mitigation efforts.
"Col. Gen. Vladimir Popovkin, commander of the Russian Military Space Forces, told a news conference Friday that the national satellite network lacked a spacecraft capable of preventing an asteroid strike...Russia established the Space Shield Foundation east of the Urals. The organization involved scientists from the Snezhinsk (Chelyabinsk-70) nuclear center and the Makeev State Rocket Center in Miass. The foundation eventually set up subsidiaries in Novosibirsk and Korolev, outside Moscow...The Planetary Defense Center, which was established in Russia three years ago, comprises the best defense-industry facilities, aerospace enterprises, in the first place, as well as academic and sectoral research."
"The Art of Asteroid Avoidance"
Based on a RIA Novosti release
Astrobiology Magazine
25 April 2006
Link
"Col. Gen. Vladimir Popovkin, commander of the Russian Military Space Forces, told a news conference Friday that the national satellite network lacked a spacecraft capable of preventing an asteroid strike...Russia established the Space Shield Foundation east of the Urals. The organization involved scientists from the Snezhinsk (Chelyabinsk-70) nuclear center and the Makeev State Rocket Center in Miass. The foundation eventually set up subsidiaries in Novosibirsk and Korolev, outside Moscow...The Planetary Defense Center, which was established in Russia three years ago, comprises the best defense-industry facilities, aerospace enterprises, in the first place, as well as academic and sectoral research."
"The Art of Asteroid Avoidance"
Based on a RIA Novosti release
Astrobiology Magazine
25 April 2006
Link
Article that Reviews Recent Mitigation Options
An article that includes a review of recent mitigation options including ESA concepts, asteroid tractor, and projectile concept from Massonnet/Meyssignac in France.
"Now, Didier Massonnet and Benoît Meyssignac of France's National Centre for Space Studies have come up with a new projectile to fire at the asteroid in such a "kill". They advocate capturing a small, 40-metre asteroid and "parking" it a stable Lagrange point 1.5 million kilometres from Earth, where the gravity of the Earth and the Sun balance."
"If a larger asteroid were then found to be on a collision course with Earth, the small rock could be moved into its path within eight months, says the team. This "David's stone" would be too puny to cause any damage to Earth if things went awry, says the team. "Such an asteroid capture would be one of the most remarkable achievements of mankind," they write in Acta Astronautica."
"But other experts say the plan is not realistic. It relies on using a small hopping robot to excavate rock at tens of metres per second from the little asteroid in order to provide the force to capture it and send it towards the larger rock. The capture would take a year of digging and would require the robot to remove 66% of the small rock's mass."
"Taking out a killer asteroid – with a tame one"
Maggie McKee
26 April 2006
NewScientist.com
Link
"Now, Didier Massonnet and Benoît Meyssignac of France's National Centre for Space Studies have come up with a new projectile to fire at the asteroid in such a "kill". They advocate capturing a small, 40-metre asteroid and "parking" it a stable Lagrange point 1.5 million kilometres from Earth, where the gravity of the Earth and the Sun balance."
"If a larger asteroid were then found to be on a collision course with Earth, the small rock could be moved into its path within eight months, says the team. This "David's stone" would be too puny to cause any damage to Earth if things went awry, says the team. "Such an asteroid capture would be one of the most remarkable achievements of mankind," they write in Acta Astronautica."
"But other experts say the plan is not realistic. It relies on using a small hopping robot to excavate rock at tens of metres per second from the little asteroid in order to provide the force to capture it and send it towards the larger rock. The capture would take a year of digging and would require the robot to remove 66% of the small rock's mass."
"Taking out a killer asteroid – with a tame one"
Maggie McKee
26 April 2006
NewScientist.com
Link
Proceedings of International Astronomical Union Symposia and Colloquia on Minor Bodies
"Asteroids, Comets, and Meteors (IAU S229) (Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union Symposia and Colloquia)"
By Daniela Lazzaro (Editor), Sylvio Ferraz-Mello (Editor), Julio A. Fernández (Editor), Karel A van der Hucht (Series Editor)
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (June 30, 2006)
"This is an up-to-date view of the solar system's minor bodies (comets, asteroids, meteors, trans-Neptunian objects and small satellites), stressing their interrelations, and relevance to accretion processes in the early solar system. The topics cover physical aspects, as well as dynamics, and observing programs related to these bodies. The volume also contains material related to current and planned space missions to minor bodies, in particular the successful Deep Impact mission to the comet Tempel 1. The book comprises 28 articles written by specialists in the field, who gave invited talks at the IAU S229 ACM meeting held in Búzios, Brazil, in August 2005. It will be of interest to researchers and graduate students working in planetary sciences and related fields."
Link: Cambridge University Press
Link: Amazon
By Daniela Lazzaro (Editor), Sylvio Ferraz-Mello (Editor), Julio A. Fernández (Editor), Karel A van der Hucht (Series Editor)
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (June 30, 2006)
"This is an up-to-date view of the solar system's minor bodies (comets, asteroids, meteors, trans-Neptunian objects and small satellites), stressing their interrelations, and relevance to accretion processes in the early solar system. The topics cover physical aspects, as well as dynamics, and observing programs related to these bodies. The volume also contains material related to current and planned space missions to minor bodies, in particular the successful Deep Impact mission to the comet Tempel 1. The book comprises 28 articles written by specialists in the field, who gave invited talks at the IAU S229 ACM meeting held in Búzios, Brazil, in August 2005. It will be of interest to researchers and graduate students working in planetary sciences and related fields."
Link: Cambridge University Press
Link: Amazon
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