Update on ABC News.com Online Poll

Update on the poll from ABC News.com on how prepared the public believes we are for an asteroid strike. Here are the latest results from 27 January 2007 (6:40pm EST). Note: Not a scientific survey

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According to some scientists, the prospects for another asteroid or meteoroid hitting Earth of a size similar in magnitude to the one that is believed to have killed the dinosaurs are pretty good.

Do you think the planet is prepared for a severe asteroid or meteor strike?

No. I think we're flying blind and taking our chances on this serious threat.

1,911

Maybe. Even if we have some defenses, no one knows whether they will work until they're tested.

624

Yes. Scientists are working to solve the problem, and humankind will figure out a solution.

131

Total Vote: 2,666

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Article: "Another Asteroid Collision With Earth: It's Just a Matter of Time"
Gina Sunseri
ABCNesc.com
Jan. 24, 2007

Link to Article

Georgia Tech Undergraduate Teams Designing Apophis Mission

I talked to an aerospace class at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta yesterday on planetary defense. The class is in the second semester of their capstone undergraduate senior design class focused on a science and tagging mission to Apophis (AE 4803: Senior Space Systems Design II, 2007 - Spring Semester). My presentation is on the class website.

If your are interested in these designs, there will be a semi-public review on February 14, 2006 at Georgia Tech (Location: Room 442 - Design Lab, 40 Guggenheim Building, School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia - enter from Knight Building, this should last most of the day, contact class instructor Dr. Robert Braun for more information: robert.braun@ae.gatech.edu)

Here is the design problem they have been given and to which they have to respond with a conceptual design (related to an Apophis mission).

Design Problem:
In the Spring 2007, each student team will develop a mission and flight system concept to rendezvous, emplace navigation infrastructure and perform a mineralogical assay of the near-Earth asteroid, Apophis. This asteroid is anticipated to fly near the Earth in 2029 and again in 2035. The present mission and flight system design must complete its in-situ investigation prior to the end of calendar year 2016 to allow for implementation of a follow-on mission (either for resource mining or Earth deflection) in one of these two Earth flyby opportunities. The following project constraints apply:

- Rendezvous with Apophis and return all data prior to Dec 31, 2016
- Total lifecycle cost < $500M (FY07$)
- Investigations must be performed in-situ (no Earth-based observation)
- A complete mission & flight system must be proposed (no instrument-only missions)
- The NASA Exploration Systems Architecture Study has been implemented as planned and these systems are available for use.

This announcement is open to all types of robotic platforms. The use of advanced technology is encouraged. For all technology not currently spaceflight qualified, a technology development plan must be included.

Link: Class Website

Link: My presentation to the Georgia Tech's AE 4803 Class - Spring 2007 Semester

Link: Georgia Institute of Technology Campus Map

2007 AIAA Student Design Competition on Apophis Assay Mission

The 2007 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) Undergraduate Team Space Design Competition, basically an American design competition resulting in a 50-100 page reports from various teams, will focus on a mineral assay of an asteroid, specifically on Apophis.

Abstract:
"An internet billionaire has offered a prize of $250 million and a share of any profits to the first team that makes a mineral assay of an asteroid, or asteroids. NASA has also agreed to contribute $250 million for the information in the assay if the asteroid chosen is Apophis. Your mission is to design a mission that will fly to Apophis, conduct an assay and scientific characterization of the asteroid, return the information to Earth, and do it for under a total cost of $500 million, including launcher. The mission includes a conceptual design of the spacecraft and payload, selection of a launch vehicle, and description of the mission plan."

Link to AIAA Undergraduate Team Space Design Competition

Link to Request for Proposal (RFP)

Article Along With Online Poll: "Another Asteroid Collision With Earth: It's Just a Matter of Time"

There is a link in this article to an online vote about how prepared people think we are for an asteroid strike. Vote.

Quotes from the article: "He [Apollo 9 astronaut Russell Schweickart and B612 Foundation member] wants to see the United Nations set up an agency mandated to prevent an asteroid from colliding with the Earth and has planned a series of meetings around the world to develop a comprehensive plan. Schweickart anticipates a project that would cost several hundred million dollars, a burden for any single country, but something much more practical as a combined effort...And the lack of a plan, said Schweickart, is something that causes him to lose sleep."

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ABCNews.com Online Poll about Planetary Defense:
Link to Poll:

Results as of 25 Jan 2006 12:16pm EST:

According to some scientists, the prospects for another asteroid or meteoroid hitting Earth of a size similar in magnitude to the one that is believed to have killed the dinosaurs are pretty good.

Do you think the planet is prepared for a severe asteroid or meteor strike?

- No. I think we're flying blind and taking our chances on this serious threat.

1,122

- Maybe. Even if we have some defenses, no one knows whether they will work until they're tested.

366

- Yes. Scientists are working to solve the problem, and humankind will figure out a solution.

84

Total Votes: 1,572

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Article: "Another Asteroid Collision With Earth: It's Just a Matter of Time"
Gina Sunseri
ABCNesc.com
Jan. 24, 2007

Link to Article

The Planetary Society announces the launch of their Apophis Mission Design Competition"

A month behind this news, but this will be a very important design competition. The subject (transponder type missions) is the first step in any legitimate NEO mitigation process.

"Today at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union, The Planetary Society announced the launch of their Apophis Mission Design Competition, which invites participants to submit designs for a mission to rendezvous with and “tag” a potentially dangerous near-Earth asteroid. Tagging may be necessary to track an asteroid accurately enough to determine whether it will impact Earth, and thus help facilitate the decision whether to mount a deflection mission to alter its orbit. The Planetary Society is offering $50,000 in prize money for the competition."

Link: Press Release (13 December 2006)

Link: Apophis Mission Design Competition Rules

Back

I am back from a period of being away from the blog. I have changed the name of the blog from planetdefense.blogspot.com to planetarydefense.blogspot.com.

There are many interesting events going on this year that will bring needed attention to the subject of planetary defense. I will endeavour to keep up with the latest news this year on the subject of planetary defense.

Excitement Builds for July 3 Close Approach for 2004 XP14

Selected highlights from a recent article:

The size of 2004 XP 14 is not precisely known. But based on its brightness, the diameter is believed to be somewhere in the range of 1,345 to 3,018-feet (410 to 920 meters). That's between a quarter mile and just over a half-mile wide.

Due to the proximity of its orbit to Earth [Map] and its estimated size, this object has been classified as a “Potentially Hazardous Asteroid” (PNA) by the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts. There are currently 783 PNAs.

The latest calculations show that 2004 XP14 will pass closest to Earth at 04:25 UT on July 3 (12:25 a.m. EDT or 9:25 p.m. PDT on July 2). The asteroid’s distance from Earth at that moment will be 268,624-miles (432,308 km), or just 1.1 times the Moon’s average distance from Earth.

The size of 2004 XP 14 is not precisely known. But based on its brightness, the diameter is believed to be somewhere in the range of 1,345 to 3,018-feet (410 to 920 meters). That's between a quarter mile and just over a half-mile wide.

Due to the proximity of its orbit to Earth [Map] and its estimated size, this object has been classified as a “Potentially Hazardous Asteroid” (PNA) by the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts. There are currently 783 PNAs.

The latest calculations show that 2004 XP14 will pass closest to Earth at 04:25 UT on July 3 (12:25 a.m. EDT or 9:25 p.m. PDT on July 2). The asteroid’s distance from Earth at that moment will be 268,624-miles (432,308 km), or just 1.1 times the Moon’s average distance from Earth.

"Huge Asteroid to Fly Past Earth July 3"
Joe Rao
Space.com
26 June 2006

Link

Back: At the NASA NEO Workshop in Vail Colorado

Folks,

I am at the NASA NEO Workshop take is taking place in Vail, Colorado from June 26-30, 2006. I will attempt to keep everyone updated as to the various events. Look for my updates at the end of each day.

Link: NEO Workshop Agenda

Asteroid Itokawa is a Rubble Pile (Porosity of 40%, like sand)

"A small near-Earth asteroid recently visited by a Japanese spacecraft is little more than a "rubble pile" of loosely-pack debris from other asteroid collisions, scientists conclude. In papers published in this week's issue of the journal Science, planetary scientists said studies of the asteroid Itokawa by the Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa showed that the asteroid's surface was littered with small boulders and gravel, leading scientists to conclude that the asteroid is not a monolithic rock but instead debris from a previous asteroid collision held together by its own gravity. The asteroid has a porosity of 40%, further evidence that the object is loosely packed together. Spectroscopic analysis of the asteroid turned up evidence of iron and minerals such as olivine and pyroxene, although no signs of differentiation."

Link: SpaceToday

Possible 250 MYear Impact Crater in Antarctica: 30 Miles Wide

A little late getting to this story, but nonetheless I find it interesting that simultaneously our technology allows us to find more evidence of past impacts, it is also allowing us to find future threatening objects. Selected quotes from a Space.com article below:

An apparent crater as big as Ohio has been found in Antarctica. Scientists think it was carved by a space rock that caused the greatest mass extinction on Earth, 250 million years ago.

The crater, buried beneath a half-mile of ice and discovered by some serious airborne and satellite sleuthing, is more than twice as big as the one involved in the demise of the dinosaurs.

The newfound crater is more than twice the size of the Chicxulub crater in the Yucatan peninsula, which marks the impact that may have ultimately killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. The Chicxulub space rock is thought to have been 6 miles wide, while the Wilkes Land meteor could have been up to 30 miles wide, the researchers said.

"Giant Crater Found: Tied to Worst Mass Extinction Ever"
Robert Roy Britt
Space.com
01 June 2006

Link: Space.com article