New Book Available: "Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach"

It looks like the new book on asteroid impacts and humans is out. Amazon.com has an unknown release date as of 02 Feb 2007, but publisher Springer has the book available in 3-4 weeks.

Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society: An Interdisciplinary Approach
Bobrowsky, Peter T.; Rickman, Hans (Eds.)
2007, XXVI, 546 p., 85 illus., Hardcover
ISBN: 978-3-540-32709-7

"In 1908 an atmospheric explosion in northern Siberia released energy equivalent to 15 Mton of TNT. Can a comparable or larger NEO affect us again? When the next NEO strikes Earth will it be large enough to destroy a city? Will the climate change significantly? Can archaeology and anthropology provide insights into the expected cultural responses with NEO interactions? Does society have a true grasp of the actual risks involved? Is the Great Depression a good model for the economic collapse that could follow a NEO catastrophe? This volume provides a necessary link between various disciplines and comet/asteroid impacts."

Link: Springer

Who said what on Planetary Defense..

Here are some quotations related to planetary defense to remind us about the threat.

"The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't have a space program. And if we become extinct because we don't have a space program, it'll serve us right!"
- Larry Niven, quoted by Arthur Clarke in interview at space.com, 2001.

"I only hope that we shall not wait to adopt the [space] program until after our astronomers have reported a new and unsuspected aster[oid] moving across their fields of vision with menacing speed. At that point it will be too late!"
- Wernher von Braun, "A Plea for a Coordinated Space Program" in The Complete Book of Outer Space, 1953.

"Since, in the long run, every planetary civilization will be endangered by impacts from space, every surviving civilization is obliged to become spacefaring--not because of exploratory or romantic zeal, but for the most practical reason imaginable: staying alive... If our long-term survival is at stake, we have a basic responsibility to our species to venture to other worlds."
- Carl Sagan, Pale Blue Dot, 1994.

"Knowing what we know now, we are being irresponsible in our failure to make the scientific and technical progress we will need for protecting our newly discovered severely threatened and probably endangered species--us. NASA is not about the 'Adventure of Human Space Exploration,' we are in the deadly serious business of saving the species. All Human Exploration's bottom line is about preserving our species over the long haul."
- Astronaut John Young,"The Big Picture."

Link: "Space Quotes to Ponder"

Article: "NASA Mulls Future Mission To Asteroid Or Comet"

We will need to see what these studies arrive at in terms of any viable missions. A few months after the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) was released, some colleagues and I had proposed a paper on this topic. It is interesting that there is some effort to push these human NEO studies using exploration architecture elements, but the NASA mission statement no longer contains wording relating to "protecting life here" as it did a few years ago before. If the goal of developing an outpost on the moon by 2020 fades with the next election, perhaps this [NEO human mission] could be a better testbed for a future Mars mission if the next NASA administrator deems it so [random thought].

"The agency's [NASA's] Constellation Program at Johnson Space Center launched a study last fall on flying the Orion crew exploration vehicle to a rendezvous with a near-Earth object (NEO) for study and possibly even sample return. A separate effort at Marshall Space Flight Center is studying whether it would be possible to cobble together pieces of the planned Ares I and Ares V launchers for an early lunar-return re-entry test with an unpiloted Orion. Also on the table, strictly as a possibility at this point, is using that so-called Ares IV to send humans to a NEO."

Link

Ed Lu states the Gravity Tractor can be built for $200-300M

UPDATE (08 February 2007): Ed tells me not to take the $200M-300M figure as an exact estimate for the gravity tractor (potential misquote from the reporter). I think these issues point out that good system designs of actual missions that include all major disciplines (including cost and operations) need to be performed on many asteroid mitigation techniques.

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My question: Do we have a mission design that this cost estimate is based on? How was this cost estimate arrived at?

"NASA astronaut and former University of Hawaii solar physicist Edward Lu is calling for a new spacecraft that would divert asteroids on a path to slam into Earth...The small space tractor, costing between $200 million and $300 million, would hover near an asteroid to exert enough gravitational pull that the space rock's orbit would change and a collision with our planet would be averted, Lu said before a crowd packed into a 300-capacity auditorium at the University of Hawaii-Manoa Monday night."

"Astronaut Calls for Asteroid Defense"
Associated Press
25 January 2007

Link: Article

Another reason to attend the 2007 Planetary Defense Conference, also see the current attendees

From my sources, the recent 2007 Planetary Defense Conference will have NASA present the results of its December 2006 report to Congress on the next generation of search and characterization. This should be one of the first public forums where the results of this study will be presented on what Congress should do on Near Earth Object (NEO) detection, characterization, and mitigation.

Also, you can now see the attendees for the conference:

Link: 2007 Planetary Conference Attendees

Article: "Exploding robots may scout hazardous asteroids"

This article was based on a poster session paper presented at the 209th meeting of the American Astronomical Society (AAS) in Seattle, Washington on 07 January 2007. I have listed the paper reference, Ball Aerospace Press Release, and highlights from the article below:

Presentation Number: 025.01
Title: Small Landing Probes for In-situ Characterization of Asteroids and Comets
Authors: Dennis Ebbets, R. Dissly, R. Reinert from Ball Aerospace & Tech. Corp..
Abstract: Future space missions to small solar system objects such as asteroids and comets may include probes that can land to enable characterization of both the surface and interior. In many cases more than one probe may be desired to sample different regions or to work together as a network of sensors. This poster describes a design concept for such a probe under study at Ball Aerospace. The probes are roughly the size of a basketball, allowing for several to be carried by a rendezvous spacecraft and deployed individually. They will survive a freefall to the surface, impacting with a velocity of several meters / second. Deployable panels on the nominally spherical body ensure self-righting to an operational orientation. Each probe accommodates a payload of several kilograms, optimized for its particular investigation. Candidates include imagers, accelerometers, X-Ray spectrometers, sample collection and examination, and possibly pyrotechnic charges for seismic excitation or cratering experiments. The probe provides a standard suite of services such as battery power, data management and communications with the rendezvous spacecraft. We are also studying options for mobility, such as “hopping”, and for anchoring to the surface of a micro-gravity body. Such a basic probe could become a low cost component of future missions that would enable a rich spectrum of in-situ investigations to a large number of target bodies.

Link: Abstract

Link: Ball Aerospace Press Release

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"Exploding robots may scout hazardous asteroids"
David Shiga
NewScientist.com news service
22 January 2007

Now, a group of scientists and engineers have designed a robotic probe small and cheap enough that a fleet of them could be sent to investigate a near-Earth asteroid's composition and structure.

Dennis Ebbets of Ball Aerospace in Boulder, Colorado, US, presented the concept on 7 January at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Seattle, Washington, US.

As many as six of the 12-kilogram probes could be loaded on a single spacecraft, which could be launched at relatively low cost to rendezvous with the asteroid.

The main spacecraft would stay a few dozen kilometres away, perhaps nudging the probes towards the asteroid using springs. Once on the surface, the protective spherical shell of each probe would open to allow the probe to scan the surface nearby.

To reduce complexity and costs, the probes lack solar panels and run on battery power, limiting their lifetime to a few days. But each probe could still cover a lot of ground in that time, as they could be fitted with small thrusters to let them hop across the surface.

Eventually the probes could detonate onboard explosives, sacrificing themselves for science one by one. Probes that had not yet detonated would listen for any seismic waves sent rippling out from the explosion, and the main spacecraft could observe the craters left behind. That would tell scientists about the asteroid's strength and internal structure.

If funding can be secured for the probes, they and the host spacecraft could be built in two or three years. The team has identified several near-Earth asteroids that would make good targets, including an asteroid a few dozen metres across called 2003 WP25, which could be reached by 2011.

Link: Article

Video from JPL about Apophis

Interesting video from JPL (Don Yeomans, Paul Chodas) on Apophis.

"Comet/Asteroid Scene Investigation (CSI):JPL scientists use advanced technologies to track asteroids and comets that have the potential to one day come close to Earth."

Link: NASA Video Page

Download options:

Large (MP4 - 16Mb):
+ Narrated without caption
+ Transcript

Large (Quicktime - 35Mb):
+ Narrated without caption
+ Narrated with caption

Press Release about 2007 Planetary Defense Conference

"NASA Ames Research Center Director Dr. Simon “Pete” Worden (Brig. Gen., USAF, ret.) will deliver the keynote address on March 5 to open the second Planetary Defense Conference organized by The Aerospace Corporation and co-sponsored by NASA, the European Space Agency, the Planetary Society, and other organizations.

The conference, to be held March 5–8 at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., will feature top scientists and engineers from the international space community. They will be assessing our ability to discover and track near-Earth objects as well as our ability to deflect an asteroid or comet that poses a threat to Earth."

Link: Press Release

Mission Targets for ESA Don Quijote Asteroid Mitigation Spacecraft

"Earlier this year [2006] the NEO Mission Advisory Panel (NEOMAP), consisting of well-known experts in the field, delivered to ESA a target selection report for Europe's future asteroid mitigation missions, identifying the relevant criteria for selecting a target and picking up two objects that meet most of those criteria. The asteroids' temporary designations are 2002 AT4 and 1989 ML."

From other sources: 1989 ML was considered as target of the Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa (then Muses-C) but had to be given up due to technical reasons...1989 ML ranks 109th among the numbered asteroids and 2002 AT4 ranks 324th among numbered asteroids in terms of Delta-V for spacecraft rendezvous.

Link: Announcement on NASASpaceFlight.com [By ESA Release, 9/26/2005 1:07:00 PM]

Link: Information from NEODys on 2002 AT4

Link: Information from NEODys on 1989 ML

Link: Delta-v for spacecraft rendezvous with known near-Earth asteroids

2007 Planetary Defense Conference Update

One can view the latest update to the agenda to the 2007 Planetary Defense Conference (March 5-8, 2007 in Washington, D.C. at the Cloyd Heck Marvin Center at George Washington University).

SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) will be presenting two of its papers (one as a main presentation and one as a poster paper). The main paper will be on the multiple mass driver asteroid mitigation concept known as MADMEN (Modular Asteroid Deflection Mission Ejector Node). The other paper will be on prioritization of various mitigation concepts. Note: SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) is also one of the sponsors of the conference.

Link: Website for Conference

Link: Agenda (.pdf)